Rocket Mortgage Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Rocket Mortgage Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

June 26, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Rocket Mortgage Classic @ Detroit Golf Club  

No History No Problem

Trying to do a podcast or any DFS content really, is always a challenge when we're at a course that we've never played before and have no history or data to work with. It can be quite humerus at times to see our little community draw definitive conclusions about how a course will play off hearsay & completely anecdotal observations. I have an idea of how Detroit Golf Club will play this week but I have absolutely no idea if it's correct or not & neither does anyone else. I've noticed a general theme in my DFS results that seemed counter intuitive at first but really makes a ton of sense when you really think about it. Almost every time I've 'over fitted' the course to a certain player type I've generally done poorly, and more often than not the times that I do broad fits that just take into account the things we know for sure about a course (like grass type, length, easy/hard, etc) the results have been good (see fact #4 every week in the 10 facts). If you've been following along with the betting article we post every week on tourjunkies.com it should also come as no surprise that of course history, recent form, and course fit, fit has been in the red most of the season and is in last place of the 3 currently. In a game with tons of built in variance, and the narrative fallacy in full force this week, keep it simple, and don't be afraid to fade any and everyone. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Fowler vs. Matsuyama 

Clear DFS value on Hideki this week as he's 1k cheaper than Rickie but a head to head pickem. In fact I really think he (Hideki) is the favorite since he's a smaller underdog to DJ than Rickie is. Fowler is certainly the more popular player on a week to week basis so this is the books shading the line in his direction, which again just means there's betting value & DFS value on Hideki. Also of note is Rickie's worst putting surface is poa (by quite a lot) and Hideki's best surface is poa (but quite a lot). If you like the Donald Ross narrative Hideki has also greatly outperformed Rickie on all his courses. One last point is Rickie has been extremely volatile all season, having massive week to week swings in his tee to green game which is quite rare to see. Hideki has the way higher floor with an equally high ceiling and cheaper price, pretty easy decision. 

MATCHUP 2

Woodland vs. Horschel

Woodland makes his 1st appearance since winning the US Open in what was a masterful troll job as it was easily his lowest ownership of the 2019 PGA season. Hindsight being 20/20 it was really a perfect setup for DFS at Pebble, elite ball strikers that are bad putters are always some of my favorite to fade when their highly owned, and load up when (for whatever reason) the ownership dips. I was curious to see how he performed after his win last year....and it wasn't pretty. He missed 5 of his next 7 cuts and didn't have another top 10 for almost 6 months. He has a relatively high floor thanks to his ball striking, but I would also be betting on some nice mean reversion from the Open considering he gained 7.2 strokes putting, the 2nd best effort of this entire career. Billy Ho has very, very quietly had a massive turnaround in his game since the start of the season. After losing strokes tee to green in 7 of his first 9 events, he's now rattled off 4 straight events of gaining at least 5 strokes on the field. Billy is a slight underdog to Chez, and given the fact that he's amost 2k cheaper than Woodland, I would say there is both DFS & batting value here. 

MATCHUP 3

Kisner vs. Streelman

Easy DFS value here as Kisner is $500 more expensive than Streelman but a +115 underdog in the betting markets. I tried to find reasons to like Kiz this week as he'll almost certainly be low owned. He did reach a season high in total strokes gained last week, but man he's been really inconsistent all year in basically every facet of the game (oddly enough he's been the steadiest gaining strokes off the tee). He always pops 2 or 3 times a year but good luck predicting when it will come. As you'll see later in the 10 facts, Mr. Streelman's name pops up quite a lot, and he's been sneaky good lately as well. In fact I would take him straight up over half of the guys priced above him this week. Streelman is also the lowest priced player to have at least 20% top 10 odds. 

MATCHUP 4

Watson vs. Hovland

Well, that was quick. One week your just an amateur and two weeks later your almost a head to head pickem against the 22nd ranked player in the world and two time Masters champ. True, Bubba's form has been terrible the since the Masters & Hovland has played really well. Under 'normal' circumstances Bubba would be the 4th or 5th highest priced player in the field but because of the recent form we get a nice discount to 13th most expensive. Hovland on the other hand has gone from min priced in April to the 16th most expensive player in the field, so the form is absolutely priced in (and probably over priced in both directions). In Hovland's 5 starts on tour this year he has managed to lose strokes putting in all 5 and lost strokes around the green in 3 of 5. Just like Bubba he's a monster off the tee, but I don't think there's any real debate about who has the higher ceiling week to week as we sit here today. 

MyBookie leads the way in Golf betting, NFL, NBA, MLB & even betting on the next Pope, Justin Bieber's best man & more!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: 

  • This will be BOTH a season high in price AND projected ownership (by quite a lot), which is always the ideal starting point for a fade

  • He's gotten up & down over 73% of the time in 3 of his last 4 events, something he's never come remotely close to doing in his career (he's averaged 56% the last calendar year)

  • There are 9 players cheaper than him that have BETTER or equal top 10 odds

  • He's a head to head underdog in his lone match up against a player cheaper than him

  • Last week he gained more strokes putting than at ANY event in the last calendar year

  • He has the worst poa putting split in the ENTIRE field

  • He ranks in the bottom half of the field in par 5 scoring

  • Over his last 50 rounds he's 97th in the field in DK scoring

  • Even though he's played better recently, over the last 24 rounds he's 94th in the field in birdies or better gained

  • He's 90th in the field in fairways gained over his last 50 rounds

  • He's 117th in the field in strokes gained on par 5's

  • He's 139th in the field in strokes gained putting BEFORE you consider this is his worst surface

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on par 72 courses

  • He has the highest missed cut % of every player priced 8700 & up

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 17.4% this week....Joaquin Niemann, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders last 50 rounds:

1. DJ 2. Matsuyama 3. Woodland 4. Benny An 5. Kokrak 6. Conners 7. Streelman 8. Fowler 9. Mitchell 10. Chez

2. 

GIR Leaders last 6 weeks: 

1. Prugh 2. Lebioda 3. Hovland 4. Streelman 5. Woodland 6. Harkins 7. Conners 8. Watney 9. Straka 10. DJ

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa:

1. Blixt 2. Ortiz 3. Cam Smith 4. DJ 5. Snedeker 6. Bae 7. Malnati 8. Teater 9. Hossler 10. Laird

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ 7200-7400 yard courses, par 72, and poa/bent grass greens...your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. DJ 2. Matsuyama 3. Fowler 4. Snedeker 5. Dufner 6. Sabbatini 7. Reed 8. Horschel 9. Moore 10. Niemann ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on Donald Ross courses your top 10 are:

1. DJ 2. Watson 3. Moore 4. Cink 5. Herman 6. Ortiz 7. Bae 8. Dufner 9. Sabbatini 10. Matsuyama

6.

 Top 10 in proximity last 50 rounds:

1. Chez 2. Conners 3. Matsuyama 4. Taylor 5. Niemann 6. Stuard 7. Svensson 8. DJ 9. Woodland 10. W Kim

7.

GIR'S gained is always one of my favorite 'hot ball striker' stats, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Woodland 2. Redman 3. DJ 4. Hovland 5. Harman 6. Horschel 7. Dufner 8. Matsuyama 9. Tway 10. Streelman

8.

Strokes gained on the par 5s is always the highest in importance at par 72's so your top 10 in strokes gained on par 5's:

1. Woodland 2. DJ 3. M. Jones 4. Burns 5. Im 6. List 7. Clark 8. Watson 9. Kang 10. Mullinax

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. DJ 2. Matsuyama 3. Cook 4. Harman 5. Hovland 6. Tringale 7. Moore 8. Landry 9. Lindheim 10. Straka

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. CH3 2. Watson 3. Benny An 4. Tway 5. Walker 6. Hoffman 7. Stanley 8. Watney 9. Holmes 10. Sucher/K Lee

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

"If you don't want your DFS lineups to suck again, take a look at the Gooch & Lebioda, both top 12 in DK points scored in the field & both sub 7k'-Patrick P. Perry

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