This Week's Tour Stop Rocket Mortgage @ Detriot G.C. 

To Meat, or not to Meat

There will be one decision that stands above the rest this week...to play Bryson 'Meat' DeChambeau and eat what I would imagine is the same amount of chalk that Alex Honnald (Free Solo) carries around in his van, or to fade him. We'll break down the decision in the head to head section, but I also wanted to provide some historical data on DFS results/value when someone has implied odds to win of 14% or greater (Meat is currently 14.29% or 6/1). I went back & looked at the last 25 times that happened (basically beginning of 2019) & here were the results:

4: wins9: top 5's10: 16th or worse8: 26th or worse2: MC's

Now about 1/2 of those are from Euro/weak field (like a South African event when Oosty plays) which makes sense when a top player has odds that low. But even then, you can see that 56% of the time, you could have faded the player & been just fine since all you really need for them to fail in a vaccum is a finish outside of the top 6 as the highest owned, highest priced player. So while it always seems that situations like Bryson this week are a lock, the data shows that's far from the case. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. When you've only played a course one prior year I think it's helpful to look at the most 'similar' courses that have more data. The top 5 closest to Detriot CC is: 1. PGA West (Desert Classic), Hamilton (Candian Open), Albany (Hero), LaCantera (old Valero site), & Warwick Hills (old Buick site). The general consensus is that the course will be setup harder this year with a longer rough. I don't want to glean to much off of last year, but one thing that really sticks out is that ZERO people finished in the top 20 & lost strokes putting. With that being said something that has worked quite well since the restart is taking an extra close look at guys that hit the ball well last week but just didn't have the flat stick working, I've made a list for your reading pleasure below.  

Leh Go!

List of players from last week that gained less than 2 strokes putting for the week but finished in the top 25:

T6. StallingsT11. HovlandT11.RedmanT11. KimT11. ToddT11. ZJT20. StuardT20. GloverT24. StanleyT24. BurnsT24. BryanT24. Reed

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MATCHUP 1

Bryson vs. Webb

DeChambeau -118 vs. Simpson -105(has since become -145 to +125)

There's basically one question you have to answer this week, which then dictates the rest of what you do....to Bryson or not to Bryson. I was actually surprised that he was 'only' 22% owned on average last week, but that won't be the case in Detriot. In the weakest field to date since the restart, and a not horrible price tag even at $11.7k, I fully expect 'Meat' to be owned somewhere between 30-40%. It's the classic game theory conundrum of do you double the field, or completely fade? There's plenty of reason to play Bryson, so I'll make the much more interesting case to fade him. His strokes gained off the tee #'s have gone from 7.3, to 3.8, to 2.8 since the restart, his strokes gained approach has gone from 4.8, to 5.9, to 0.7 last week, and he gained his 2nd most strokes putting in the last calendar year last week. Maybe he's getting tired of swinging at 130+ mph during the week, or perhaps drinking 6-7 protein shakes a day has taken it toll. The million dollar question is does the trend continue in his ball striking or was last week just an off week that he still managed to finish in 6th place? The books had Webb and Bryson pretty close when the lines first opened, but the public has bet Bryson up to a pretty high price as we sit here on Wednesday. Most Donald Ross courses are tailor made for a player like Webb. Hit a ton of fairways, pound the greens, and let your putter do the work. Generally speaking the key defense for most Donald Ross courses (esp for pro's) is the big slope in the greens that will separate the good/bad putters.

MATCHUP 2

Redman vs. HV3

Redman -110 vs. HV3 -110

Pretty clear cut DFS value on HV3 this week as he's $900 cheaper than Doc but a pick em in the head to head markets. Really both guys are kind of the same player...they both gain strokes off the tee, approach play is the biggest strength, and neither one can chip or putt worth a shit. Interestingly Poa/bent is HV3's best surface, and though it's a small sample size with only 13 rounds, Doc has really struggled on Poa so far losing almost a stroke a round putting. Both guys should have quite a bit of experience on Donald Ross courses being from North Carolina. Doc will have the course history edge with a 2nd place last year while HV3 missed the cut, so it really just boils down to do you believe that either one can make enough putts this week?

MATCHUP 3

Hovland vs. Matsuyama

Hovland +105 vs. Matsuyama -125

I fully expect Victor to garner at least 50% more ownership this week than Hideki, and while the price to value is about right since Hideki is $200 more expensive, your going to get quite the ownership leverage. Hideki has only played one event since the restart so it's hard to judge exactly where he is. He gained strokes off the tee & approach at the RBC, but lost 6.7 strokes in the short game, which has generally become the norm for him on bermuda courses. However when you get Hideki off bermuda, believe it or not he has slightly gained strokes putting on bent/poa and played well at Detriot GC last year gaining strokes across the board. Hovland has really turned into what we all consider Hideki to be currently. He's really slightly better off the tee, equal in approach, way worse around the green, and a slightly worse putter. I will say he *might* have been working on his short game during the break as he's at least broken even in 2 out of the last 3 event around the green. Previously you could just about pencil him in for negative strokes in that category. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Well...last week sucked. For me. Probably for you. And literally everyone else. Let's move on. The weather in Detroit looks perfect every single day with no advantage to a wave or tomorrow for FRL bets. It's going to be hot, dry and virtually no wind to impact the golf ball the entire week. For that reason, I'm going with nothing but outrights on the card this week given there's no edge in the FRL market. We've received a lot of intel from multiple caddies on site today (which will be shared in full tonight in the NUT HUT chat) that is leading me into the longer numbers in terms of outrights. Obviously, I still love Bryson this week, but again...see "BIG BALLS BETTING CARD". 

Through 21 Weeks: Spent $1050 / Won $1600 / Up 55 unitsOutright WinnerHadwin (55/1)_$10, Todd (60/1)_$10, Varner III (70/1)_$5, Gordon (100/1)_$5,Stallings (100/1)_$5, Duncan (125/1)_$5, Higgs (150/1)_$5, Clark (150/1)_$5 

I still believe this comes down to hitting fairways, hitting the proper tiers on these greens, and making putts on quick, undulating bentgrass-ish putting surfaces. I also believe that despite a slightly stronger field than last year, it's still a birdie fest where anyone can get scorching hot. Therefore, I'm leaning with longer shots. Hadwin & Todd speak for themselves and fit the course as good as any player in the field. Both have won on Tour and both are playing well. You'll notice I continue to bet HV3 almost every week because I still believe his win is coming and the books continue to undervalue his explosiveness and win equity. I spoke about Gordon extensively on the podcast. I believe this young, college standout can win just like we've seen Wolff and Morikawa do since coming out. Stalling is trending nicely and his caddie believes he's hitting it as good as ever. He just needs the putts to drop. Duncan is a short knocking, accurate driver and deadly putter that has won on the PGA Tour. Higgs & Clark are 2 guys that haven't impressed since the restart, but both have tremendous fire power, both can feast on these four Par 5's, both are top tier putters, and both have contented on Sunday late at more than one PGA Tour event in the past where hopefully they learned a few things.

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a pick em or slight underdog in almost all his head to head matchups against guys that are cheaper than him

• He's had a price increase of $2100 the last 2 weeks

• He's lost strokes around the green in 17 of his last 19 events

• Poa/bent is his worst putting surface

• Despite a good finish last year at the Rocket Mortgage, he was the high water mark of his career in strokes gained short game and it's not close

• He's 40th in the field in proximity from the most popular approach shot yardage

• He's 60th in the field in birdie or better %

• He's projected to have the highest ownership of his young career so far, & will likely double his next highest week

At 15.7% actual FNGC lineup generated % (5th highest), Doc Redman, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Golf carts in the south should all be required to have fans installed. I know they are out there also because I’ve seen them. It’s hot AF right now and while I can still take the heat a fan would certainly be nice. Perhaps even a little misting option as well.

Speaking of hot AF. I need to know where I can find a more masculine beach/pool bag. All those damn things are too girly looking with initials and shit or floral looking patterns. Your boy needs to look cooler than rolling up in the pool with my 2 boys and my custom frilly laced pretty bag. Help a man out folks.

What food did you hate as a child but love now? Mine is hands down Brussel Sprouts. Damn I love those things but despised them when I was a kid.

 The world is pretty crazy right now. This cancel culture crap drives me insane sometimes. I mean, here's a novel idea, if we're cancelling stuff all over the place why don't we cancel shit that, I don't know, perhaps actually needs to be cancelled? Like Dots candy. I want those cancelled. I'd also like to cancel my lineups getting screwed late Friday afternoon. Is that too much to ask for? 

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Rocket Mortgage Classic and please lord grant us no last minute Covid or non-Covid withdrawals. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last year's Rocket:

1. Roach 2. Tringale 3. Lashley 4. Kokrak 5. Lee 6. Reed 7. Im 8. An 9. Teater 10. Redman

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Detriot (obv only have 4 rds of data): 

1. Teddy P 2. Tringale 3. Stanley 4. Lashley 5. Donald 6. Teater 7. Reed 8. Burgoon 9. Hoge 10. Poston 11. Kiz 12. Redman 13. Straka

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on poa/bent grass:

 1. Snedeker 2. Na 3. Fowler 4. Rodgers 5. Kisner 6. Clark 7. Martin 8. Todd 9. Hadwin 10. Reed

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards, easy scoring, and bent greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Day 2. Finau 3. Reed 4. Snedeker 5. Werenski 6. Fowler 7. Lashley 8. Hahn 9. Im 10. Wise

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, easy scoring, and easy to hit fairway courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. Ryder 2. Matsuyama 3. Teater 4. Martin 5. Kirk 6. Percy 7. Glover 8. DeChambeau 9. Stallings 10. Burgoon

6.

 Your top 10 in strokes gained ball striking on Donald Ross courses:

 1. Grillo 2. Day 3. Knox 4. Watson 5. Glover 6. Dufner 7. DeChambeau 8. Si Woo 9. Matsuyama 10. Stanley

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Detroit Golf Club, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. Griffin 2. Jones 3. Matsuyama 4. Noren 5. Clark 6. Day 7. Hahn 8. Wise 9. Norlander 10. McNealy

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. HV3 2. Hovland 3. Armour 4. Grillo 5. Wagner 6. Fowler 7. Hoge 8. Bezuidenhout 9. Sabbatini 10. Sucher

9. 

Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds:

1. DeChambeau 2. Hatton 3. HV3 4. Hovland 5. Hadwin 6. Redman 7. Burns 8. Glover 9. Wise 10. Finau

10.

Top 10 'values' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Wolff 2. Lashley 3. Wise 4. Martin 5. Stanley 6. List 7. Todd 8. Bradley 9. Griffin 10. Kirk