Detriot Golf Club

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

I always like to go back & re-read the email from the previous year to try & see what's changed/stayed the same for the way the players & DFS'ers are approaching the week. If I just copy & pasted last year's opener talking about how Bryson was going to be the highest-priced, highest owned player in the field & the game theory decisions behind it you likely wouldn't have even noticed which is kind of funny. The setup is certainly different this year though. In 2020 we were only 3 events removed from the restart and the grand unveiling of the new & improved large golfer. He went a cool 3rd, 8th, 6th leading up to the Rocket Mortgage, and was priced only $300 more expensive than he is this week. He was gaining his now usual 3-7 strokes off the tee, irons were great, & was gaining strokes putting every event. He went on to win as the super chalk, and did it while LOSING strokes on approach shots which is really hard to do (only 3.6% of all PGA Tour winners during the shotlink era have lost strokes on approach for the week). Going over a manual count, it looks like Bryson will have 5ish approach shots a day that will be above a pitching wedge. The catch is that while Bryson is no doubt an elite putter, he's very streaky. Last year at the RM he gained 7.8 strokes putting, his 2nd highest mark of the last calendar year. Over his last 20 events, he's lost strokes putting in 8 of those. But on the weeks he gains, he gains big with only 3 of those 12 events being sub 3.6 strokes for the week. 

The weather looks decent. A little bit of rain is projected tomorrow afternoon, with the winds picking up for most of the day Friday. 

(Image courtesy of DataGolf) Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. When you've only played a course two prior years I think it's helpful to look at the most 'similar' courses that have more data. The top 5 closest to Detriot CC are: 1. PGA West (Desert Classic), Hamilton (Candian Open), Albany (Hero), LaCantera (old Valero site), & Warwick Hills (old Buick site). The general consensus last year was that the course would be set up harder with a longer rough. Then it ended up playing even easier...so I think we can safely assume now that no matter the 'setup' it's going to play easy. One thing that really sticks out is that ZERO people finished in the top 20 & lost strokes putting in 2019, & ZERO people finished in the top 12 last year & lost strokes putting.  

Leh Go! 

MATCHUP 1

Matsuyama vs. Zalatoris

Matsuyama -129 vs. Zalatoris +110

No real surprise in the H2H pricing since Hideki is $400 more expensive on DK, but I just wanted to break these two down because they're both flying under the radar up top. Hideki will make it 3 years in a row at this stop which must mean he likes the course. He's played well both at his previous stops at DGC with a 13th & 21st, while being above field average in GIR's hit both times (74%/76%). He also played sneaky well at the US Open gaining 6 strokes on approach shots and gaining strokes both ARG & putting. A couple of wayward tee shots were really the only thing that held him back from a likely top 10 finish. And anytime you get Hideki away from bermudagrass I'm always going to give him a 2nd look. Willy Z took a week off after his MC at the US Open which should further help to push his ownership down. The ball striking has certainly cooled a bit, and the putter has definitely gone cold losing strokes in 5 straight events. Even considering all that, he's 3rd in the field in strokes gained T2G over the last 50 rounds, and outside of (maybe) Bryson & Hideki, he has the highest ball-striking upside of anyone in the field. 

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MATCHUP 2

Grillo vs. Si Woo

 Grillo -110 vs. Si Woo -106

Perhaps the two most underpriced players in the field this week are Grillo & our South Korean Prince. Both are coming off missed cuts which again should keep their ownership levels suppressed. Grillo made the 10 stats several times & DGC should be a great fit for his game. Over the last 3 calendar months, he's 5th in the field in strokes gained T2G, over the last 50 rounds he's 3rd in the field in BoB%, he's #1 in the field in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds, AND he's #1 in the field in the 2 main proximity buckets (shoutout Pat). Si Woo can turn it OFF/ON maybe better than anyone on tour with the exception of Brooks. He's driven the ball great all year, & has been super consistent around the greens. The irons & putter have been super streaky all year, but as he's demonstrated many times, his recent form doesn't really matter & you just have to buy the dip. 

MATCHUP 3

DeChambeau vs. Reed

DeChambeau -116 vs. Reed -101

So last week we broke down this exact same matchup, & if you remember Reed was the FAVORITE which made no sense to me. Bryson did end up eeking out a 1 stroke H2H win over Reed, but you could have faded both of them & been just fine. Reed did have his 2nd highest strokes gained T2G week last week, & timed it up perfectly with his worst strokes gained putting week of 2021 (so perhaps the books line last week was right). Like we pointed out a week ago, he's trending nicely, having gained 13 strokes on approach shots his last 3 events, and 23.8 T2G. He does his best putting work on bent/poa and played well at DGC his 1st time out in 2019. Like we outlined above, it's a different scenario heading into this year with Bryson. He's still as dangerous as ever & absolutely has the highest upside of anyone in the field, but you gotta pay for it in both salary & ownership. 

Other interesting lines:Kokrak -154 vs. Kiz +132Simpson -120 vs. Niemann +103Tringale -155 vs. Watson +132Todd -137 vs. Redman +117Homa -125 vs. Woodland +107Kirk -112 vs. Stanley -104Niemann -115 vs. Zalatoris -101 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's hasn't returned value on his salary in 7 straight events

• In 4 of his last 6 events, he's gained less than 4 strokes T2G

• His high watermark for strokes gained approach since March is 2 strokes

• He gains more strokes putting on bermuda than bent/poa

• He loses strokes against his baseline on easy courses

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's got a nice 2-way miss going off the tee. He's 143rd in the field in drives left avoided & 144th in the field in drives right avoided

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 100th in the field in double bogey avoidance 

• This is his highest projected ownership since this event last year

•  This is his 3rd highest DFS price ever

• His top 5 odds are just better than 5/1, which is what you'll need him to finish at to return any real value

• The last 2 times he was owned 20%+ he finished 55th, & 46th

At 27.4% actual lineup generated % on Fantasy National (highest) Bryson, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Why is a kangaroo the only animal that gets to have a pouch? Lots of animals could probably use a pouch. It’s a great injustice in the animal world if you ask me.

No matter how many kitchen utensils I have at my disposal, I never actually feel like I have enough. There’s always one that’s missing or I haven’t thought to buy.

Why don’t grocery stores put baskets randomly around the store for that inevitable moment when someone realizes they’ve grabbed too much and they need one?

I’ve said this before but it bares repeating. F doctors office waiting rooms. I’m sitting in one as I type and it’s been an hour. In any other profession, every single customer on earth would fire that person if they were made to wait that long for a service. Yet I will probably get charged a $100 fee if I try to leave. Unless it’s an oil change or your waiting on your car to get fixed. I guess that would be acceptable to wait for because you can’t really go anywhere anyway. But you get the point.

Alright folks! That’s all I got this week. Enjoy the Rocket Mortgage Classic and the birdie fest we should have at Detroit Golf Club. Stay well, Good Luck, and may your screens be green. Bome!