Rock Mortgage Chalb Bomb 2023

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The Detroit area has received heavy amount of rain coming into this week that has softened the course quite a bit. There could a potential small advantage for the AM/PM group as winds look like they may tick up on Thursday afternoon and Friday morning.For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET tonight for our final take on the weather.

Rickie Fowler -129 ($10,400) vs. Tony Finau -101 ($10,100)

The sharper books were smart enough to post a quality number on this matchup that has stayed pretty steady, but others opened up Rickie as an underdog in this matchup before his side was hammered by bettors.It's a classic matchup of one player over performing and the other under performing recently. In a H2H matchup simulation using data from the last 36 rounds, Rickie is projected to win 62% of the time which would be equivalent to a -163 fair odds price.If you want to take Rickie in DFS, you're going to have to eat highest owned in the entire slate chalk most likely. Tony is projected at lighter ownership of around 18% in the latest Nut Hut projections from the research center.

Gordon Sargent -138 ($7500) vs. Taylor Pendrith +114 ($7400)

In our 2nd matchup, we have two players priced evenly in DFS with similar ownership projections, but one player is a substantial favorite in the head to head markets.Some sportsbooks opened this like -115/-105 before the Sargent side immediately caught steam and it hasn't yet let up. It's always a bit jarring to see an amatuer favored in a matchup against a more established player like Pendrith who competed in the most recent Presidents Cup and finished 2nd at this very event last season.Both players can really deploy the bomb and gouge technique that we have seen lead to success at Detroit Golf Club. It's going to come down to whether or not you trust the oddsmakers or are willing to take a stand on Pendy this week.

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Carson Young -158 ($7000) vs. Joel Dahmen +126 ($6900)

In our final matchup to examine, Carson Young has caught the attention of bettors enough to move this line even at the sharpest of sportsbooks this week. He opened up in some spots as low as -130 and others around -145 before being bet up to his current juice-filled price of -158.It's hard to argue against when you look at recent form for both players. Young has gained an average of +.66 strokes in his last 36 rounds and is coming off a top 15 finish at the Travelers last week.Dahmen on the other hand is losing an average of -.95 strokes per round over the same timespan and has missed 3 consecutive cuts. This said, if you want to play the ownership angle in DFS, there is a good chance Dahmen is less than 1% owned this week while Young is projected to be 8.46% owned.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Tom Kim narrowly avoided a trunk slam before the weekend at The Travelers but still managed to only produce a pedestrian T38 finish. We'll take that anyday for a highly owned player. Any time you get to a birdie fest like last week, you are going to have to make a ton of putts and be proficient around the greens, which ultimately did him in and was able to negate another strong week for TK with the irons. Let try to find us another chalky candidate this week!TPC River Highlands received a good bit of criticism last week for being too short. The current players and technology has passed that place by, or so we were told. Interestingly, the week at Detroit Golf Club plays equally is not even shorter than last week. In last years Rocket Mortgage Classic, over 47% off all approach shots came INSIDE 150 yards which is more than we see at the Travelers. Total wedge fest this week.The chalk bomb candidate this week has historically and recently struggled to dial in the wedges. Statistically he produces his best numbers and advantages with longer irons, but ranks a mere 69th in the field over the last 36 rounds played from 75-150 yards. That's simply not going to cut it this week, particular because in order to keep pace with the leaderboard, you are going to need to give yourself birdie looks on a TON of holes.Diving further into the topic of how course yardages and effect approach play for players, I found it interesting that this player was on a tear with his irons in a 6-event stretch from the Wells Fargo Championship through the US Open. Most of those courses required you to hit your long irons well and the examination of approach play was coming from a longer yardage. He averaged +2.84 strokes on approach per event over that span.Then came the Travelers, which asks players to perform at very high levels with their wedges to gain strokes on approach. This player lost -2.4 strokes on approach last week at TPC River Highlands. They were able to mask this bad performance with their irons by literally having the 2nd best putting week of their entire career. We know this is not sustainable week in and week out and that variance is bound to get him soon if he keeps hitting it like that.There is also a prevailing narrative this week that distance OTT is a major advantage, and I think look at previous years there is a good bit of truth to that. There is definitely a way to deploy a bomb & gouge strategy at Detroit Golf Club if you have the requisite distance. The Chalk Bomb candidate this week simply does not, rating in the bottom half of the field in terms of Driving Distance. Actually, his biggest strength may be his ability to hit fairways which is negated this week by a lack of penalty for misses with the Driver.Lastly, I have subscribed to the strategy of over-owned players in the $8k price range being perfect candidates to blow up your lineup with much success this year. The bottom line is the volatility that inherently lies with players in this range is far greater than the variance you see from guys in the $10k range. If you are picking a player to fade, needless to say, they are substantially more likely to miss the cut the further you are willing to go down the salary board.This player has actually impressed me over the last few months, but we have gotten to a point now where the stock is so high it has become a breaking point. The floor for this player still exists, and this week appears to be setting up the perfect scenario to see it take effect.Also, we have to mention the ability to make solid pivots right around this player in terms of pricing. DataGolf does a great job of projecting player fantasy points and establishing a value to each player based on those projections. If you are willing to fade the CB and pay up $100, there is a player projected to score 1 less point this week and you can get him at less than half the ownership. Even if you want to go down $100 in salary, there is actually a player that DataGolf is projected to score more points and you can grab him at nearly a 5% ownership discount this week.These are the types of things we look for in chalk bomb, and I feel confident about the player we have placed in the scope this week... Projected at over 17% owned in DFS, Austin Eckroat, you young man are this weeks chalk bomb!

I don't understand why the baggers at the grocery store always have to ask me if I want a bag for my milk. Of course I want a damn bag. Who doesn't want a bag? Drives me nuts. When you hear something is wrong on so many levels. It's really not that many levels I bet. Maybe just two or three levels. Even though snails are very slow, they always seem to just appear out of nowhere. I'm a chopstick guy and readily admit I look down upon fork people at Hibachi restaurants.Name a more disgusting floor than a pool bathroom floor? I mean, how much pee am I walking on here? I can't tell! Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!