The RBC Heritage 2024 Chalk 💣

After some high winds and tough conditions at Augusta National, the TOUR moves on to the shores of Hilton Head Island where we should see some more stable weather. Winds should pick up somewhat each afternoon, but nothing near the levels we saw last week

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Ludvig Aberg -123 ($10,400) vs. Rory McIlroy -107 ($11,200)

We start with a pair of big-name bombers at the top of the DFS price board where Ludvig Aberg is a favorite over Rory McIlroy in a 72-hole matchup despite the Swede coming in at $800 cheaper on DraftKings

As a rookie, Aberg obviously comes into Hilton Head with no prior experience at this event, but that’s no big disadvantage against Rory who has just two prior starts at Harbour Town — most recently a T41 in 2020.

Unsurprisingly, last week’s Masters results has the public leaning toward Ludvig and away from Rory. same rate in DFS. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Aberg is neck-and-neck with Xander Schauffele for the most-owned player at around 21% while McIlroy is coming in at around 10%.

Cameron Young -128 ($8700) vs. Wyndham Clark -102 ($9200)

Looking a bit further down the board, the sharp oddsmakers have Cameron Young as a -128 favorite over Wyndham Clark even though the defending US Open champ is $500 more expensive in DFS.

Clark has been a mainstay at this event but with limited results. He’s played the RBC Heritage each of the last five years but only has a T29 to show for it as his best result. Young on the other hand has only been here twice before but earned a T3 in 2022.

The public is on Young with his projected ownership coming in around 18% while Clark is much less chalky at 13%.

Andrew Putnam -162 ($6400) vs. Erik van Rooyen +129 ($6700)

Among the cheaper options, the sharps heavily favor Andrew Putnam over EVR in a 72-hole matchup despite a slight discount on the American in DFS.

With eight starts in the last five years at this venue between them, neither player lacks course experience headed into this week. But van Rooyen has the better results with a pair of top-21 finishes in three starts at Harbour Town.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, neither player is overly popular in DFS this week as both players are coming in under 6% owned. With that in mind, it might be worth tailing the sharps here with Putnam if you’re deciding between the two.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

The year’s first major was kind once again to Scottie Scheffler, and I’d say it worked out alright for the Chalk Bomb author.

For the second time this season, Rory McIlroy lived up to the Chalk Bomb label with a disappointing T22 in Augusta last week. It’s been a helluva run for the column so far this year with (knock on wood) very few Chalk Bomb picks blowing up in my face — so let’s see if we can stay hot now that we’re well and truly into the thick of the golf season.

With the elevated purse at 20 million, all the big names have made the short trip from Augusta to Hilton Head for the RBC Heritage this week, and that means no shortage of popular plays to fade as this week’s lucky Chalk Bomb.

As a reminder, these picks are limited to players projected at over 15% ownership in DFS according to our proprietary projections available in the Tour Junkies Discord. The whole idea is to pick a popular player who may not be worth the chalk and might just provide a good opportunity for a pivot play to a more sensible option.

Looking at this week’s venue, Harbour Town Golf Links consistently plays as one of the more difficult tracks on the PGA TOUR with an average winning score around 14-under-par over the last 10 years.

With tight, dogleg fairways lined with overhanging trees, our experts at Bet the Number have identified Harbour Town as one of the least bomber-friendly courses on the PGA TOUR circuit. Their strokes-gained data shows that there’s only about a difference of one stroke lost or gained between those who are 20 yards shorter than average off the tee and those who are 20 yards longer.

This will severely limit the strengths of this week’s Chalk Bomb who relies heavily on his world-class distance off the tee to pound courses into submission. With only six true ‘driver holes’, this guy will be hitting to the same spots as everyone else more often than not.

While this player is already one of the world’s best off the tee and with his irons, his play on and around the greens at Harbour Town might just hold him back from his lofty expectations.

Over his last 36 rounds on courses with overseeded chipping areas like those at Harbour Town, this player ranks 64th (out of 70!) in this week’s field in SG: Around the Green. The picture on the greens isn’t much prettier. Over his last 36 rounds putting on overseeded greens, the Chalk Bomb ranks 59th in the field in SG: Putting.

As a rookie, this week’s Chalk Bomb also lacks experience at this venue which has me leaning toward other similarly-priced players near the top of the DFS shopping list. At $10,400 on DraftKings, this player is the only one priced higher than $7000 without a single start at Harbour Town.

I hate to pick against this guy coming off his awesome major championship debut at Augusta last week, but I don’t think the strengths of his game align very well with what this event requires.

So as the second highest-owned player at over 21%, Ludvig Aberg, you are the Chalk Bomb!

It’s amazing how much we automatically trust people who are carrying floweres.

The opposite of snorkeling is straw drinking.

Nobody thinks about how one of the two core functions of a stair is to turn a single potentially lethal fall into many non-lethal falls.

Some human came up with a damn dragon well before humans even knew there were dinosaurs. That’s wild.

Alright folks, that’s all I got this week for the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town. Stay well and good luck with all your lineups and bets. Bome!