RBC Heritage Chalk Bomb 23

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The weather has changed even since doing the lunch time, family time chat with DB today. It appears the chance/amount of rain has lessened for the first 2 days and the wind is now picking up all day Thursday. At this point, we aren't seeing a massive advantage to a weather wave stack. We could have heavy rain come in during different parts of the week, but looks tough to predict as of now.As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Jon Rahm +103 ($11,100) vs. Scottie Scheffler -123 ($11,000)

The golf world wants there to be a big 3 in professional golf, but let's face it...there's a big 2 and the guy left on the outside already withdrew. I wouldn't say we are surprised to see Scottie the favorite here after the intense culmination of a Masters win from Rahm, but this line actually ballooned up to -155 at one point before serious money came pouring back in on Rahm.Both are equally priced in DFS and these are the only 2 players in the world gaining over 2 strokes per round over the last 36 played. The next best is over a half a stroke per round worse.Aggregate ownership in the Nut Hut has about a 6% jump for Scheffler who is projected as high as 22.3% owned while it's expected that Rahm comes in around 16%. Are we buying into the Masters hangover angle here or is this a golden opportunity to take the highest price player in DFS and undisputed best in the world as a head to head DOG?

Si Woo Kim -143 ($7,600) vs. Rickie Fowler +123 ($7,600)

Two friends of team TJ are battling it out in this Head to Head. Both players are priced equally in DFS despite Si Woo being a prohibitive favorite in the head to head market. The sharps are backing Si Woo as well, the line opened at -120 before the books saw tickets being placed on Si Woo to the point where it's all the way up to -143.DataGolf's predictive matchup line says that Si Woo should be a -121 favorite which is more in line with the opening line. Statistically, Si Woo has been the more well rounded player in terms of strokes gained but it's hard to ignore Rickie gaining over 3 strokes per tournament on approach over his last 8 events!Fowler has missed the cut in back to back events played at Harbour Town while Si Woo has been exactly what we would expect...up and down. Ownership looks level in this matchup so it's going to come down to who you trust more to show up focused and ready to compete.

Sungjae Im -161 ($8,600) vs. Max Homa +125 ($9,100)

These are the ones we love to look at and try to analyze deeper. You can get Sunjae in DFS for $500 cheaper than Homa this week despite him being a substantial -161 favorite in the Head to Head Markets at the sharpest sportsbooks.Sungjae has somewhat quietly returned to form with 3 straight top 20's including a T16 last week at Augusta National. Meanwhile, Homa once again struggled at The Masters losing strokes to the field OTT, ARG, and Putting which is abnormal for Max. Something about the Masters greens just makes him uncomfortable and he has not been able to find the stroke at Augusta.We ran a 100 round simulation on this matchup and it came our very even. Sungjae is projected to win 51% of the time. You're going to have to eat more ownership on Sungjae this week as the Nut Hut projections have him coming in around 19% owned while Homa is 14%. Good luck this week!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Welcome back to the Chalk Bomb, where we take one of the highest owned players of the week and we WILL him to a T39 finish of worse. That's what happened to Jason Day last week as he imploded in his final round at The Masters. Day lost nearly 3 strokes Ballstriking, which was our primary concern last week as we listened to him talk about how uncomfortable he was with his swing despite some of the recent numbers indicating otherwise. Always listen to the player.We are right back at it this week in what I would consider to be the most awkward scheduling spot of the season. You have a course that is completely different the Augusta National, on the heels of the biggest event of the season, yet still elevated which creates an obligation from many of the top players to show up. For me, this screams like an opportunity to fade a player who had a 72 hole grind at Augusta that potentially left the grounds a bit exhausted and disheartened.While this field is uniquely different than years past due to the previously mentioned elevated status, I wanted to take a closer look at recent winners at The Heritage and how the played the week prior. Obviously Spieth won last year despite a brutal MC at the Masters, but actually 6 of the last 7 winners for the Heritage either missed the cut at Augusta, didn't play, or finished worse than 28th.Safe to say, there is not a strong correlation that any of the positive results from The Masters carry over to this week, and I would actually argue that it could potentially work the opposite way as a negative. The CB this week had his best Masters performance ever and threatened contention multiple times before ultimately finishing safely inside the top 10. Write it off!One of the biggest factors things to consider at Harbour Town is the tiny greens these guys have to play into. Nearly every player in the field is going to hit fewer greens in regulation this week versus the standard PGA Tour event. This heightens the importance of solid Around The Green game. You are going to have to have deft touch around the greens and get up and down successfully on a number of holes.When looking at the top 10 in terms of projected ownership this week, the Chalk Bomb candidate we have honed in on is clearly the worst ARG of the bunch. Over the last 36 rounds played, this player ranks 103rd in ARG and 124th in short game according to Fantasy National. Not only have they struggled chipping, they also have not putted it well either which is a terrible combination at Harbour Town.People are just enamored by this player, and mostly with good reason. He's able to do things Tee to Green that are just special. That said, it feels like public perception of this player has gotten to it's highest level. They are coming into this week, in an elevated event, with no wins and at their lowest price on the oddsboard we have ever seen for this player. It's like buying in on a stock at the absolute highest price it has ever been and still expecting massive returns, it's just not likely to happen in my opinion.I also don't believe that Harbour Town is particularly setup to reward this players skill set despite a great finish at this event last year. That said, after opening up with a 63 last year, they failed to break 70 in 2 of their 3 final rounds here. It's a course that takes Driver out of the bag quite a bit, and that ends up neutralizing a major asset for this player! Welcome to Chalk Bomb territory where you will not be sporting the tartan jacket this week. At $9,600 and nearly 18% projected ownership, Cameron Young, you are the chalk bomb!

Little known fact about Hilton Head Island. They have crazy rule that all the street signs can't be above a certain height. So it's really hard to find shit sometimes. Humans are inefficient at a lot of things but at least we are the most efficient animals at drinking water. Looking in a window is always creepier than looking out of one. I feel like everything on the Taco Bell menu is just a variation of the same thing. The more fancy a shower is the harder it is to figure out how to actually make it just turn on and get hot. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links in beautiful Hilton Head Island! Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!