RBC Heritage Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

 This Week's Tour Stop RBC Heritage at Harbour Town 

Thoughts & Offerings From Someone Who Was There

I'm extremely lucky in my friends, lets start there. Many of my closest friends are either from Augusta, work in Augusta, have connections to the course, have connections to players, or have connections to the Masters itself. I generally head down to Augusta on the Thursday the tournament starts and treat it like my adult spring break every year for the most part. I don't go in every day as ticket prices can be quite expensive (2k per day this past year), but as my friend & I always joke, 'just be in Augusta, and a ticket will find you.' After getting a ticket to Saturday from a random guy I passed in the street (thank you to whoever you are!) and staying out til the wee hours of the night, I was planning on heading home early Sunday to catch the final round on TV. But good fortune struck again as a friend invited me to use a last minute badge he had come up with that morning. Terribly hungover I got myself together & rushed to Augusta Country Club to meet up with him and make the short ride over to the National. I forced a blood mary down that did wonders to alleviate the pain from the night before, and off we went. If you've ever tried to follow Tiger around anywhere, you know you have to come up with a sharp game plan if you want to see him hit actual golf shots and not be staring at the back of 15 rows of heads. We decided to post up on a middle ground right on the rope of 14, which would give us views of the 13th green and tee shot on 14 (and if Tiger missed the fairway again that day we would be in a prime spot. The plan after that was to run down to 16 then 18 trying to stay a full hole ahead of the last group. Well, that plan mostly went to shit once the leaders made it to amen corner. We we're sticking to our plan nicely until we heard one of those Augusta roar's that only Tiger Woods can produce...you can literally hear it no matter where you are on the property. Usually it's really loud and fairly quick (like 2-3 seconds).....but this one lasted what seemed like a full minute, we knew something was up. (remember when your out there you have no cell phone and the only way you can see what players are doing is via the old fashioned man operated scoreboards or word of mouth from other patrons). We immediately start run-walking over to 12 where it seems the roar came from, desperately trying to find out what happened. Different rumors were fly around as we ask everyone we pass. Hole in one Tiger, Tiger chipped in, Moli hit it in the water? Wait Moli & Finau are BOTH in the water?? Lets go!!!!!We turn to go back to our spot on 14, but 20,000 people were already in our spot, so we decided to push our chips all in on 15/16 as the deciding holes of the tournament and found a good spot which puts us at the bottom right hand part of the picture above on 16. It's the best spot on the course because you can see the entirety of 16 and have a great view of the approach shot on the par 5 15th over the water. (& basically imagine all the people in this image times 10, thats how many people are on the hole). 16 is basically the low point on the course, and the approach shot from 15 down to the green is probably about an 80 foot drop. We haven't actually laid eyes on Tiger yet as we've been trying to position ourselves for optimal viewing on the most important stretch. I have no idea what Tiger is wearing or what he looks like today, I just keep my eyes peeled on the horizon of the hill on 15. Slowly I start to see this bright, blood red figure start to appear over the horizon in this almost unbelievable contrast to both the landscape and the other players (who all clearly got the message, you better not fucking think about wearing any form or mix of the color red), and it was one of the coolest moments of my life. As the figure grows taller the crowd starts to build into this crescendo of energy and excitement akin to the home team at a college football game willing it's team to make a stand on 4th and goal. And like a kindergarten teacher quieting a classroom, 100,000 people go completely silent as Tiger sets up to his approach shot pictured below, you could quite literally hear a pin drop in the seconds before the swing. He goes on to birdie 15 to take the solo lead by one. Then 16......I was standing next to men from England, Ireland, Australia, and South Africa....all of us united in trying to will the once broken Tiger Woods to glory once again. Re-live the shot on 16 HEREThe ground literally started shaking the closer the ball rolled to the hole, everyone is high-fiving everyone, beer is being spelled everywhere, and within 60 seconds the crowd is completely silent again as Tiger lines the putt up. He drains it and we know that Tiger has done the impossible, he's given us the unbelievably rare PERFECT comeback story. He had lots of close calls last year, and the tour championship, while cool, didn't feel like a real win. We all wanted to see him don the green jacket one more time, where it all started, and damn it, he did it.  

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

TourJunkies.com

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Kuchar vs. Cantlay 

Not only is Cantlay a head to head favorite over Boooochar this week, but he's also favored over Bryson as well (both are priced higher than Cantlay on DK). Even though Cantlay had a very brief moment in solo 1st on Sunday at Augusta, he really didn't play all that great tee to green hitting only 61% of his greens while Kuchar actually hit 73.6% of his greens for the week. The main difference being that Cantlay averaged 26 putts per round vs Kuchar's 29 putts per round. Pound for pound Kuchar has the best course history in the field as he's never missed a cut to go along with a win & 3 other top 11 finishes. He's #1 in the field in strokes gained ball striking at Harbour Town, has plus bermuda splits, and has historically gained strokes in very windy conditions. Not to be outdone, Cantlay lead the field in last years playing of the RBC in strokes gained tee to green, and if it wasn't for losing 3.5 strokes putting most likely would have won the event. Kuchar will certainly be chalk this week but I think I still prefer him over Cantlay just because the tee to green game is in better form and your really not getting much of an ownership discount this week on Cantlay.

MATCHUP 2

Fitzpatrick vs. Furyk

 While Mathew Fitzpatrick anxiously awaits the results from his learners permit test, Jim Furyk just keeps cashin' check on the tour as an almost 50 year old (he has over 70 million in career earnings, nuts). The books are saying Fitz is a really nice value on DK as he's $900 cheaper than Furyk & a pick em' in head to head betting. It's certainly a good course fit for both guys....in DFS I would probably prefer Fitz because of the price savings and lower ownership, and for betting I would certainly take Furyk. Even when Furyk missed the cut here in 2017 he still hit 78% of his greens in reg (20% higher than the event average!). The crazy part is that in Furyk's last two events he's been top 10 in GIR % but just putted poorly. For the box score watchers out there, Fitz's 21st place finish at the Masters doesn't look all that great, but he shot 78 on Thursday then backed it up the rest of the week playing 11 under Fri-Sun. 

MATCHUP 3

Speef vs. Kisner

The free money from the sports books continues to flow as they just refuse to adjust Spieth's prices to his current ability (he was favored over half the guys priced above him last week). He actually had his best tee to green week since August of last year....and still only finished 21st! Spieth has 'ok' history here as he's only hit more than 57% of his greens once (2015), while Kisner has hit OVER 68% of his greens here 3 separate times in the last 4 years. Kiz has been playing some his best golf over the last 2 months, has the way better course history, and isn't desperately searching for his game....continue to take the free money guys while it still lasts!!!!

MATCHUP 4

Im vs. Kokrak

Im and Kokrak have been two of my favorite DFS plays on an almost weekly basis this season. Kokrak apprears in the 10 facts several times this week as he has just about every week. Over the last 50 rounds Kokrak is 2nd in the field in strokes gained approach, 13th in strokes gained off the tee, and 3rd in DK points scored. Some will gloss over his course history as bad because he's missed 4 out of 7 cuts, BUT he's literally never hit less than 63% of his greens here since 2013 (& remember the field averages 57%). In fact last year he hit 81% of his greens and still found a way to miss the cut (averaged 34 putts per round, I can do that!) But he comes in this year having gained 11.2 strokes putting his last two events so I would be pretty surprised if he's really bad on the greens again (plus bermuda is his best surface). Switching to IM.....the boy is going to win on the PGA tour....this year. He's just so solid across the board, his stats profile reminds me a lot of Xander's....just gains strokes in every category. He's had a pretty wide (positive) putting split between bent & bermuda, and on the rare weeks he's played poorly they have mostly come on bent greens. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week:

• Dating back to the WGC Mexico his strokes gained tee to green numbers are: (-1.7), (-2.7), 2.2, and he almost certainly lost strokes tee to green at the Masters as he averaged 28 putts per round

• He had the worst strokes gained putting performance of his entire career at this course

• He's 31st in the field in historical GIR % at Harbour Town

• Since the Genesis in February his best finish is 15th

• Also since the Genesis he's hit 68% or less of his greens in regulation in every event

• If we average his proximity numbers from the two most important approach shot yardage buckets, he ranks 76th in the field

• In his last 12 rounds he's 103rd in the field in GIR's gained

• In his last 12 rounds he's 99th in the field in good drivers gained

• He's a head to head underdog against someone that $700 cheaper than him on DK

• As the course difficultly goes up his strokes gained drops at every step

• It's going to be SUPER windy this week, especially Friday & Saturday. And while it's only a 13 round sample size, this guy is 88th in the field in strokes gained in windy conditions

• Plus he's teeing off on Friday during the teeth of the projected highest winds

• He loses strokes against his baseline on short courses

• Despite having a top 5 salary, he's only +175 for a top 10 finish. So the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 10 are 63.64%

FanShareSports.com

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 18.4% this week....Bryson DeChambeau, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years RBC:

1. Cantlay 2. List 3. Grillo 4. Potter 5. Benny An 6. Si Woo Kim 7. Kodaira 8. DJ 9. Simpson 10. DeChaambeau

2. 

Historical GIR gained leaders at Harbour Town (Min 8 rounds): (a lot of the top guys have not played enough rounds)

1. Merritt 2. Kokrak 3. List 4. Molinari 5. Dufner 6. CT Pan 7. Cantlay 8. Furyk 9. Haas 10. Kisner

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. McCarthy 2. Burns 3. Thompson 4. Gay 5. Fitzpatrick 6. Malnati 7. Donald 8. Horschel 9. McDowell 10. Snedeker

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, average to difficult scoring, & under 7200 yards.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Kuchar 2. Furyk 3. Simpson 4. Donald 5. Spieth 6. McDowell 7. DJ 8. Fleetwood 9. Poulter 10. Knox ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Spieth 2. Grace 3. Cantlay 4. Poulter 5. Kisner 6. Webb 7. Streelman 8. Cam Smith 9. Molinari 10. Kokrak (when he doesn't average 33 putts per round)

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 150-175 yardage bucket, and 175-200 last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Chez 2. Hoffman 3. Cantlay 4. Lowry 5. Molinari 6. Ancer 7. Moore 8. Grillo 9. Kokrak 10. Horschel

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Harbour Town, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1.Kuchar 2. Hoon Lee 3. Conners 4. Im 5. Furyk 6. DJ 7. Kisner 8. Ben An 9. CH3 10. Knox

8.

Interestingly strokes gained on the par 4's rated the highest in importance at Harbour Town so your top 10 in strokes gained on par 4's:

1. DJ 2. Simpson 3. Putnam 4. Cantlay 5. CH3 6. Harding 7. Fleetwood 8. Kuchar 9. Im 10. Kokrak

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Knox 2. Hoon Lee 3. Kuchar 4. Landry 5. Conners 6. Schenk 7. Kokrak 8. Na 9. DJ 10. X

10.

Harbour Town is one of the few stops on tour where strokes gained short game is more important than ball striking, so your top 10 in strokes gained short game last 50 rounds

: 1. Snedeker 2. Simpson 3. Gay 4. Cauley 5. Donald 6. Cam Smith 7. McCarthy 8. Stuard 9. Baddeley 10. Si Woo Kim

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"Don't be afraid to take bold stands this week with the weather bringing added variance into the tournament. Hell I drink rose around other men which is as bold as it gets!"