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With sustained winds only projected around 5-12mph for the first 2 rounds, we don't think it's going to be much of a concern for these guys. Obviously it does look a little gusty at times, but that's pretty standard for a coastal property. Harbour Town is fairly guarded in many spots from the highly blustery winds off the ocean due to the amount of trees on the course.We don't see a need to do any wave stacking as of now (around 1pm on Wednesday), but things could change. We'll be keeping a close look out on the weather and relay any thoughts from us or our caddie friends on the ground tonight in the Nut Hut Live Chat.

I'm choosing to zero in on Cantlay's line and line movement to possibly justify buying him in DFS at a current estimation of 11% ownership compared to 24% for Morikawa and 19% for JT up in the top tier range. DJ is only projected around 12% as well, but the sportsbooks and H2H bettors appear much more bullish on Cantlay. 

These 2 opened as a coin flip on Fanduel, then Cantlay's number got pounded early taking him to the -142 favorite, until people bit on the + money DJ. That same line currently sits at -126 Cantlay. Our most trusted book opened this same line at the numbers above with Cantlay the -142 favorite and the line hasn't moved.

He's also a favorite against Fitzpatrick (who the books are very bullish on) and Lowry everywhere, and he's even with Cam Smith on one book and a very slight dog to him on another. 

Maybe it's the lackluster performance at The Masters and the missed cut here last year that people aren't loving in the DFS streets, but Cantlay offers an interesting pivot with real fire power, sub 12% ownership, and an even $10K price tag on DraftKings

Hadwin -108 vs. Varner -115

Adam Hadwin is projected to be double the ownership of HV3 right now at around 19% in DFS. He's obviously been playing extremely well and his course fit at Harbour Town is undeniable based on his long term skill set (despite his lackluster record here). 

However, HV3 has been playing well also, and does have a runner up here at Harbour Town. Hadwin's a dog to Mav McNealy, Webb Simpson, and he's even money with HV3 on a different book than the one listed above. The only line he's a favorite on is Kuchar at -115 vs -108.

We liked Hadwin on the show. There's a strong chance he makes our betting cards, but a $7.6K chalk play at 19% is typically a textbook fade in DFS. The oddsmakers and bettors of H2H matchups certainly aren't giving Hadwin a ringing endorsement by any means.

Smith -108 vs. Fitzpatrick -108

This one really caught my eye seeing as how Cam is $1300 more expensive on DraftKings. I love Fitzpatrick this week and this year. I think he's the best version of himself he's ever been on the course. I feel the same about Cam Smith. But there's been some line movement on a couple of lines working towards Fitzpatrick's favor. The Cam Smith line actually opened with Cam as -126 to +104 favorite and now it's even.

Another line move or two for Fitz involved his lines on Berger and Cantlay. He opened a slight favorite to Berger, but has since become a bigger favorite to -142 to +119. The Cantlay line had Fitz a +106 dog and now he's a +100 dog.

He's a perfect fit for all the things Harbour Town asks you to do and his record shows it. His form is hot, and he feels as due as anyone for their first PGA TOUR win. Fitz certainly isn't going under the radar in DFS at around 20% projected ownership, but like Smith and Conners last week at Augusta...sometimes the books validate the DFS chalk and justify eating it...especially with a top tier player.

Other lines involving Fitz:

-166 VS Niemann +140

-140 VS Conners +112

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

And after Ben (who came in for relief) nearly made Cam Smith the winner for The Masters by making him the Chalk Bomb, DB is back taking over the reigns. We've not seen a single top 25 out of Mr. Harbour Town himself, Webb Simpson since his neck injury. Now...he is trending after going MC at The Players, T48 at Valspar and T35 at The Masters. But the finish positions don't tell the entire story. While the finish positions may be trending, the iron play is still well below what Webb's typically playing to.Webber ranked 46th in the field at Augusta in SG:APP per DataGolf by losing 1.92 strokes with his irons. That makes 4 starts in 2022 and his total SG: APP to -5.62. Yes, Webb has dominated Harbour Town...he's comfy here, and he knows what to do. That's not the question. If you look at his incredible record here, you'll see that the VAST majority of his strokes gained came on Approach (like..it's overwhelming).Here are his underdog H2H lines from our most trusted (sharpest sportsbook)+104 VS Berger -123+128 VS Lowry -154-106 VS Mav -114+102 VS Sungjae -122 At 16% (top 10 highest) projected ownership, James Frederick Webb Simpson(HOLY CRAP! He's got 4 names...that's even worse...)you are the Chalk Bomb! 

I did something I hardly ever do this week. Cleaned my dishwasher. It got me wondering though how much people regularly clean appliances like they should be doing. Especially a dishwasher. Maybe people need more education on this. I think Auto-Correct on phones needs to be done away with. My phone autocorrecting a word incorrectly just makes what I'm trying to text more confusing than if the word was just left spelled incorrectly. Celery is just such a versatile vegetable. I mean, how many other things go well with both ranch dressing and peanut butter. I'm kind of talking to myself here but good lord I have the most random shit on my office desk. Who still needs an inbox/outbox file holder? Why the F do I have a rolodex sitting on here? I haven't grabbed a pin out of the spinning pin holder thing in 4 years. I need to clean some shit up. 

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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