Tight, but not THAT tight

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

In what seems like a lifetime ago (last July), the boys & I put together a substitute golf trip to Hilton Head in place of what was supposed to be our week in Scotland. Our 2nd to last round was at Harbour Town where DirecTV Perry & I pissed away a 3up lead with 5 holes to play (but in my defense, DT Perry was basically on life-support all day due to the dreaded combo of the Brown Bottle Flu + a 110 heat index). And no he did not piss his pants, he was quite literally dumping ice water over his head for the entirety of the round.  Anyways, below is a pic of us on the iconic 18th tee box with the lighthouse in the background. 

Several things surprised me about the course. 1: It's tight, but it's not that tight. Pete Dye likes to play mind games with you off the tee, 18 being a perfect example. It 'looks' like it's a forced carry of about 200 yards, with left being absolutely dead & if you catch a drive really clean, could also run straight through the fairway & into the marsh. The reality is that you have about a 50 yard by 100-yard football field that you can hit your drive into & be just fine anywhere. You can also blast it about as far right as you possibly can & still be fine. 2. However, on some holes, the angles do matter. On #9 for example I *thought* I hit what was a perfect drive to have a little gap wedge into my preferred draw hole location. Only to get up to the ball & find that I was completely blocked out from even hitting the green. I quite literally had to layup from 120 yards. 3. There really isn't that much water on the course. Even for us Joe's it only came into play on 3, MAYBE 4 holes. 4. The around-the-green play & slope in the greens narrative is spot on. Dye usually gives you a bailout with your approach into every green to avoid the super penal hazards. The pros do this quite a bit given the GIR % here is 57%, well below tour average. 5. Referencing the same stat, the greens are also very small. So same logic equals more scrambling. 6. On a lot of holes, everyone is hitting their approach shots from the same spot. Another major reason why the bombers tend to skip this event. 

It does look like the wind will be a factor this year. Fairly steady all day Thursday with perhaps a slight wave advantage for the PM Friday guys. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance of the course fit. Well, we go from a course that heavily favors bombers (ANGC) to a course where bombers have the most difficult time taking advantage of their length (as always it still matters, just to a lesser degree). At Harbour Town it's simply more difficult to 'ball strike' your way to victory without gaining plenty of strokes both around the green & putting. In fact, since 2015, only 15! players have finished in the top 10 and not gained AT LEAST 2 strokes putting for the week.    

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Casey vs. Ancer

Casey -111 VS. Ancer -105

I suppose we should have known/remembered last week that #MegaChalk Casey should be an auto-fade. However, he didn't play THAT bad. His irons were still really good, he was just uncharacteristically wild off the tee, and somehow only got up & down 30% of the time last week (especially interesting since his LOWEST scrambling % in 2021 was 66.7%). He hasn't played here a ton recently (only 3 times the last 10 years), so I wouldn't put a ton of stock into his poor course history. This 'should' be a good bounce-back spot considering his ownership should be 15% or less on Thursday. At this event last year, Abe famously hit 90% of his greens in reg & somehow didn't win the tourney. Harbour Town certainly suits his game as he's the 3rd most accurate driver of the ball in the field (of relevant guys) with Webb & Conners only slightly better. Over the last 50 rounds, he's also 12th in GIR's gained, & 6th in good drives gained. Bermuda is his worse surface, but it's not a huge difference from his other surfaces. 

Click the image above to sign up with Monkey Knife Fight!Free $50 when you use Promo Code: TourJunkies w/ 1st Deposit!

MATCHUP 2

Conners vs. Fitz

 Conners +111 vs. Fitz -130

Well, the books are saying Fitzy is a value this week given he's $200 cheaper than Conners on DK yet the -130 favorite in H2H markets. I certainly understand WHY Fitzpatrick is the favorite, but I'm not so sure I agree with it. It's well documented that Harbour Town is Fitzpatricks 'favorite' course....pretty high praise considering I would go play Haig Point right across the bay 10/10 times over HT. And it's not like he's got some super great track record either here, with a high watermark of 14th place & has generally been right around field average in GIR's hit. So the counter-argument is since the start of the 2021 season, he's #1 in the field in strokes gained short game which has increased importance here. He's also been gaining a completely unsustainable .8 strokes per round putting on bermuda grass for his career. For Conners, it's basically the exact opposite argument. He's been golfing his damn ball with the driver & irons, and even though he did struggle last week at ANGC with the short game, he's actually been improving there. He's actually gained strokes putting in 4 of 7 events this year, and while he's still losing strokes around the green, he's greatly minimized it. Over his last 10 events, he's just under breakeven in strokes gained around the green, which is all he needs to have high finishes. Yea, his course history sucks, but I would argue he's a different player now (he did hit 79% of his GIR's last year).

MATCHUP 3

Berger vs. Morikawa

Berger -109 vs. Morikawa -107

Another DFS value with Berger being the H2H favorite despite Morikawa being $500 more expensive this week. I do believe that Harbour Town is, in fact, a good fit for Morikawa, it's just all going to come down to does he at least break even around the greens, and does he gain any strokes putting. So far in his young career, if he does both of those, you can pretty much pencil him in for a top 10, if he doesn't do either (about 50% of the time) he's gonna be in that 30-50th area. Berger, oddly enough, has pretty much been in that same boat for 2021. I think it's fair to argue he has the way higher floor in the short game, but even at his best his ball-striking ceiling is still far below what Morikawa can do. He was #bad at the Masters, but this week he could be another great buy the dip candidate as his ownership should finally dip below 15% which he has rarely been under the last calendar year. 

Other interesting lines:Na -122 vs. Kirk +104Simpson -131 vs. DJ +112Morikawa -112 vs. Cantlay -104Fitz -118 vs. Hatton +101Henley -141 vs. Streelman +121Hatton -114 vs. Conners -102Harman -137 vs. Si Woo +117Hoffman -120 vs. Poulter +103

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's in the slightly worse tee time draw

• This is his most expensive DFS price since the Sanderson Farms

• This is expected to be his 3rd highest ownership in the last 2 calendar years

• His strokes gained drops substantially when courses play harder

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in half his starts this year

• He's lost strokes putting in half his starts this year

• He's missed the cut here twice the last 5 times he's played Harbour Town

• In his last 28 rounds he's 50th in the field in opps gained

• In his last 28 rounds, he's 40th in the field in bogeys avioded

• In his last 28 rounds, he's 75th in the field in good drives gained

• In his last 28 rounds, he's 106th in the field in GIR's gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 85th in the field in proximity in the 2 main approach shot buckets

• In 36 rounds at Harbour Town, he's LOST 26.2 strokes tee to green

• His main sponsor sounds like an evil shell company for a Bond villian

At 15.7% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (9th highest, though have seen him at 17-18% elsewhere) Brian Harman, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

My entire family throws trash in the kitchen sink and it drives me F’in crazy. The trash can is literally located UNDERNEATH THE DAMN SINK!

Why is it that most bathroom products, especially shampoo, seem to be marketed like they are for a woman? Yet the ones for men are something like Head and Shoulders because you have a dandruff problem. What if I like Tea Tree and Mint with hints of Lavender shampoo? Can I not be in the commercial?

How come most clothing brands haven’t figured out that the tags on the back of a shirt neck are incredibly uncomfortable? Even if they’re “tear off” it still leaves a stupid little thread that nags at your back all damn day. Get rid of em. Just print the info directly on the shirt damnit.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!