RBC

RBC Canadian Open

O' Canada! Look, I know we have some Canadian readers, shout out to youse guys for being fans of a sport that you can only play like 3 months out of the year, true dedication that deserves recognition. But for real though, why would you purposely choose to live somewhere like that?? C'mon down to southern 'Merica where you can play the game of the gods year round (or 9 months at a bare minimum)! Two summers ago we looked at expanding our Zaxbys business (for those not familiar, we're like Chick-fil-a but better) to Indiana, and part of that deal would have forced me to move up there eventually. I shit you not, one of the biggest deciding factors for me to not do it was the fact that I could only play golf a couple months a year.....that and the fact that we couldn't really find any sites we really liked. I'm sure that sounds crazy to some, but it's really my lone hobby and even though I'm not that good, I absolutely love to play the game. I once heard David Feherty describe what it's like once golf has it's hooks in you, it very rarely ever lets go, and that couldn't be more true for me. It's one of those sports for us 'former' athletes where we can still get that massive adrenaline/dopamine hit when you sink a 10 footer on 18 to win the match. I've always been fascinated with what truly drives the greats of golf, and every time I can't help but to think of these two images (below) of Tiger. That pure, unadulterated release of energy that comes from the deepest part of your core to let everyone around you know that your the king of the jungle. It's a high that can't be simulated by any drug or monetary windfall, you can't re-create it in a lab, this high is solely reserved for those moments in time when the pressure is so thick you could pop diamonds out of your ass, but you bury the putt anyways. I think it's that high that the great ones get truly addicted to, I think it's why Tiger has always moved the needle more than anyone else, because his release of that energy is so powerful you can't help but feel it at home with him while you watch. And it's why if he wins again, it will be the most incredible moment in golf history that you'll feel in every bone in your body. 

Sorry got a little off track there but that's exactly what made the British Open so great was seeing all these guys play their guts out with a major championship on the line. We're finally back to a bombers course, it seems like it's been a while right? In my own testing it's like 40% distance, 40% birdies, 20% GIR/approach, leh go!

Head to Head Matchups & Information

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when trying to value one guy against another. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie or Bookmaker to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. Not a ton of surprises this week but certainly some nice value to be found. So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week: No real surprise here as DJ is the massive favorite in both outright to win odds, and every head to head. DJ is a -200 over Tommy Golden Locks, which translates into a 66.6% implied odds, aka he's expected to finish higher two out of thee times. See the 10 facts for additional info on what history tells us about DJ being a massive favorite.This line did surprise me as I expected Niemann to be a pretty heavy favorite over Kiz even with our boy coming off a T-2 at the British. Taking a closer to look for some why's.....it does look like Kiz has found a little power in his stroke the last two tournaments as he's averaged 311 and 309 yards his last two events and averaging 305 his last 6. Niemann has still been the hotter ball striker and as long as he doesn't have to do much chipping he should be fine at this bombers haven.I'm not surprised that Tony is the favorite, but I am surprised that he's this big of a favorite. Their stats are almost identical across the board, Tony does have an edge with his short game but it's not huge. Bubba has played well here two of the last three times he's played, and actually hit 85%! of his greens in 2013 but just putted like shit. I like the value Bubba provides at a slightly cheaper price with WAY less ownership.Several of these lines I strongly disagree with but I'm just hear to report the facts! Gary Woodland continues to be a beast off the tee, and also continues to rank just about dead last in every other category. JB is 15th in the field strokes gained T2G, Woodland is 46th, and by the way he ranks 124th in the field in putting. Give me all the JB at a plus money line.This one might have surprised me the most. Sergio has basically been a train wreak since he made a 13 at #15 at the Masters. He's missed 5 of his last 8 cuts, and while he had two ok results on the Euro tour, none of his underlying stats have really rebounded. Poulter on the other hand has been steady as a rock since March with an 81 on Friday at the British being his lone blemish. He played great at the Open de France & Scottish Open leading up to the British, a cold putter being the only thing that really held him back. Give me all the Poulter. Chris Kirk is finally starting to find the form he had from 2 years ago as he's 3rd in the field in strokes gained approach the last 24 rounds. His short game which is usually his main calling card is the only thing that has held him back from higher finishes as he ranks 91st in strokes gained around the green and 51st in putting. And for Jonny Vegas, I have no idea what to do with him. His form is shit, but it was even worse last year as he had missed 6 cuts in a row, then won the RBC for the 2nd year in a row. This course looks to be tailor made for Keith Mitchell, yet he's a pick em against Ollie who's best finish since mid February is 26th. It's hard to not really like KM, but for reason the bookmakers just aren't very high on him. 

THE Chalk Bomb

I stewed over this one for quite a while....I tried my best to make cases for the top 5 projected guys in ownership but couldn't find a 'good' case to make for any of them besides, 'golf is really random.' The chalk bomb this week is a guy that I feel very comfortable fading for several reasons: 1. He has one top 10 finish all year (at a less than driver course) 2. He's projected to be right at our 20% ownership mark which is the bar that I try to stay above 3. He's ranked #1 in the field in strokes gained around the green the last 24 rounds, a completely unsustainable pace (he's averaging 3 strokes gained per tournament his last 5 events). 4. He's ranked #79 in strokes gained off the tee 5. He's ranked #78 in strokes gained approach 6. He's ranked #115 in strokes gained putting. 7. At a bombers course (which he does average over 300) he's a head to head underdog to Steve Stricker 8. Need I say more?

Jamie Lovemark, your the Chalk Bomb!

10 Facts That Will Help You Make Decisions, Like Planet Tito's or Planet Rose All Day (In honor of PTP being on vacation)

1. DJ has implied odds of 15.4% to win outright this week. Here is how the last 10 players that had odds of 15.4% or better have done: 1. Spieth at the Bryson Nelson (21st) 2. Jon Rahm at the Open de Espana (1st) 3. Tiger at API (5th) DJ at the Genesis (16th), 4. DJ at Pebble (2nd), 5. Rory at Dubai (2rd), 6. DJ at Abu Dhabi (9th), 7. Spieth at Sony (18th), 8. Spieth at TOC (9th) 9. Sergio at Austrilian PGA (24th), 10. Fitzpatrick at Hong Kong Open (19th). 2. 9 times since DFS golf started DJ has had odds of 14% or better to win a tournament outright, here is how he's done: 7th,16th, 2nd, 9th, 8th, MC, 13th, 2nd, 2nd, 35th, 6th, 2nd, 5th. So amazingly he's never actually won as the heavy favorite but he has finished 2nd 4 times. But 6 out of  the13 times you could have faded him and been just fine. 3. When DJ is at least a 14% favorite in implied odds to win, his average ownership is 32.8%. Yikes...it's my personal philosophy that when someone is 30% owned you either have to go 60% plus or fade completely. 4. Last years strokes gained T2G leaders at the Canadian Open: 1. Woodland 2. Hoffman 3. Finau 4. Garrigus 5. DJ 6. Vegas 7. Keegan 8. HV3 9. Poulter 10. Power5. Last year Woodland, Finau, and DJ all finished in the top 10 despite losing strokes putting6. Top 10 Bentgrass putters relative to their baseline (relevant guys): 1. Burgoon 2. Dahmen 3. Harkins 4. Finau 5. Stallings 6. Tway 7. Rodgers 8. Lingmerth 9. JB 10.Koepka7. Top 10 strokes gained off the tee last 24 rounds: 1. Bubba 2. Woodland 3. DJ 4. Niemann 5. Horschel 6. Spaun 7. Fleetwood 8. Conners 9. Holmes 10. Koepka8. The new guy, Cameron Champ, who just earned his tour card for next year via win on the web.com tour, averages 342 yards off the tee, sweet Jesus. 9. Top 10 in GIR hit the last 6 events: 1. Kirk 2. Horschel 3. Niemann 4. Conners 5. Dahmen 6. Spaun 7. Finau 8. Lingmerth 9. Watney 10. Power10. All the par 5's are reachable in two this week for most, so the top 10 in the field in par 5 scoring the last year are: 1. DJ 2. Stricker (never would have guessed that) 3. Fleetwood 4. Finau 5. Lovelady 6. Poulter 7. Burgoon 8. Tway 9. Mitchell 10. Sergio

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Drive the Green ($5), Albatross ($12), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar