Byron Nelson @ TPC Craig Ranch

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

It's a shame that the Byron Nelson has kind of turned into this wondering circus of an event, changing locations for the 3rd time in the last 4 iterations. It's always a tough sell for any PGA Tour stop when you're directly in front of or directly behind a major championship. Perhaps that is changing with the most recent track to host the BN, TPC Craig Ranch just outside of Dallas. It will certainly be a much stronger field than either of the years at Trinity Forest which is a pleasant surprise. While we don't have PGA Tour data on Craig Ranch, the Korn Ferry Tour has twice played its end-of-year championship here. In 2012 the winner was -16, & in 2008 the winner was at -17, so it should be fair to say that we expect a lot of scoring this week. All of the par 5's should be reachable in 2 for most of the field, & only one of the par 4's is over 500 yards. Much of the length of the course is in the par 3's with 3 of them being over 200 yards. We've got bermuda grass tees, zoysia fairways w/ rough at 2.5 inches, bentgrass greens. 

The weather looks pretty standard for Texas with a steady breeze & some stronger gusts. It will certainly be unseasonably cold with a high of 72 between Thursday & Friday which should give an even bigger boost to the longer hitters. 

Obviously, no course fit image this week, but I think ole Willy Z gave a great little preview in his press conference earlier: 'I think the biggest defense of this place really is the wind. Typically, when I've played here, it's fairly wide open, it's very long, especially when you have Zoysia grass, the ball doesn't roll very far. Getting the (cold) weather as well is going to slow down the ball off the tee, so it's going to benefit a lot of the longer hitters. But you're able to really hit some darts into some of these greens, especially with how the weather is looking. So expecting some low numbers this week, but at the same time if the wind picks up, I mean, I've seen it in Q-School, I think I shot 72 & moved up 15 spots. So normally in Q-School you might shoot 68 & move back 20 spots.'  

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Scheffler vs. Koepka

Scheffler -123 vs. Koepka +106

The DFS value hawks are already swarming over Scottie being the H2H favorite despite being $500 cheaper than Brooks this week. Who really knows where Brooks is at currently with his knee is the real question. The last time we saw him he was limping around Augusta and clearly not at 100% after an MC. I think a lot of people didn't really see that his knee was still so bad he literally couldn't crouch behind the ball to read his putts. His long game wasn't terrible as he was just above field average in GIR's hit in his 2 rounds, but his short game was really, really bad. I'm sure big game hunter Brooks has done all he can the last month as we enter #MajorSZN, but the reality is he's 2 months removed from an injury that takes most mortals 6 months to heal from. Still, I don't think Scottie is a slam dunk on the other side either. When he's at his best, he's one of the best total drivers of the ball on tour. Last year he had a run of 20 straight events where he gained strokes off the tee, but something got squirrely once the calendar flipped to 2021. He proceeded to lose strokes OTT in 4 of the next 7 events, while also having an extremely volatile putter. The good news is it looks like he's figured the driver out gaining strokes in 3 straight while also gaining strokes on approach shots in 6 out of his last 7. 

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MATCHUP 2

Berger vs. Spieth

 Berger -121 vs. Spieth +104

We didn't have very many lines that jumped off the page this week, but this was certainly one of them. Berger is $600 cheaper on DK but the betting favorite according to the books. We can only assume the books are pricing in a little 'covid rust' for Jordan, though according to him it only knocked him down for about 36 hours, and the last 7-10 days he's felt completely normal & been able to get full practice sessions in. He's made this section of the email several times since he started his turnaround in February. The rise back up to the top of the ball striking ranks has been just as quick as his fall from grace 2 years ago. Since the start of 2021, he now officially ranks #1 in the field in strokes gained tee to green. It's all the more impressive when you consider his high water mark for strokes gained OTT in 2021 is 1.5. Mr. Berger has been a little more volatile in 2021 than he was last year but overall has still been sneaky good. In 5 of 8 starts this year he's gained AT LEAST 4.7 strokes tee to green, and overall his profile has started to take on the shape of what Patrick Cantlay & Xander's looks like. Which is to say that he's routinely gaining strokes across the board, with the kind of putting upside to win in any given week. 

MATCHUP 3

Rahm vs. DeChambeau

Rahm -122 vs. DeChambeau +104

For as much as Bryson puts into his driver, he sure has had a hard time figuring out that irons are your scoring clubs. Last week is yet another example of him gaining enough strokes elsewhere to win the tournament, but losing 5.5 strokes on approach shots just isn't going to get it done. Consider that if he just breaks even with his irons he probably wins last week by 2 or 3 strokes. Anywho TPC Craig Ranch should be a bomb & gouge course which plays right into Bryson's hands. All 4 of the par 5's will be easily reachable in two, and with very little defending the holes, it wouldn't surprise me to see him make several eagles this week. Even with all that considered, the books still like Rahm a little bit better straight up. He famously missed his 1st cut last week since the very 1st event of the restart last year. However, if you look closely at his numbers he still hit 72% of his greens in reg at QH, and somehow averaged a peak Keegan of 33 putts per round while getting up & down 10% of the time. Those are far & away the worst short game numbers he's EVER recorded in a PGA tour event. If his ownership dips like I think it will this week, it's a prime buying opportunity. 

Other interesting lines:Scheffler -113 vs. Zalatoris -103Berger -145 vs. Matsuyama +124Burns -133 vs. Leishman +114Fitz -136 vs. Koepka +116Si Woo -118 vs. Palmer +101Day -131 vs. Pieters +112Gooch -114 vs. Ortiz -102Garnett -129 vs. Lebioda +111Ghim -130 vs. Champ +111

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He has 1 top 10....ever

• In 4 of 11 events this year he's lost total strokes to the field

• In 4 of 11 events this year he's lost strokes off the tee

• In 6 of his last 9 events, he's lost strokes around the greens

• In his last 6 events, he's lost strokes putting

• He loses massive strokes against his baseline on courses >7400 yards

• He's 60th in the field in strokes gained on par 5's

• On easy scoring courses, he loses massive strokes against his baseline

• This is projected to be his highest ownership week, ever

• Since 1/1/2020, this is his 2nd highest DFS price

At 20.3% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (3rd highest) Doug Ghim, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I found out this week one of our longtime listeners and original nut hut members actually lives in what is officially classified as a Village. Not a town, or a settlement, a freakin village. That got me thinking though. I wish I lived in a village. I think I could really thrive in a village. 

I've often wondered (and worried) when operating a disposal, especially when I'm cleaning out all the crap my family throws in there, if somehow it accidentally turned on with my hand in there what would really happen. I mean, would it be that terrible? What if it's not really that strong and I have super human powers that could stop the blades with my fingers? Anyway. The thought just crossed my mind. 

Blind people being able to read in braille is fascinating to me. I can't imagine that being easy to learn. That said, think how unsettling it would be for a blind person to read braille that said "DO NOT TOUCH". 

I took my sons camping last weekend and let me tell you something, it's amazing how entertaining a simple fire can be to them. It's also equally amazing they didn't start a forest fire. 

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the Byron Nelson at TPC Craig Ranch. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!