Quicken Loans

Quicken Loans National

The PGA equivalent of the All-Star break is upon us as we'll likely have three very weak field events leading up to the British Open. Last year was the first time playing this event at TPC Potomac, and it was quite the bear. Strokes gained off the tee accounted for 22.4% of scoring last year according to datagolf, substantially higher than the average PGA tour event. Weeks like these I'll rely even more on head to head prices. Basically the only thing we know for sure is that the course plays very difficult. Leh Go!

Finding Value & Information in Head to Head Matchups

This is something I've been incorporating more & more into my weekly analysis, & is absolutely critical when we have limited course history. Essentially we look at the head to head matchups posted on mybookie or Bookmaker to see where the books disagree with the DFS world and where we can find value. Some weeks the DFS world & the books are in almost complete agreement, but most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of. It almost always ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is & what the books were expecting. Last week we highlight how big a favorite Paul Casey was over Leishman & Webb (both of which missed the cut while Casey was on most gpp winning teams). So lets look at a couple that are standing out this week: Both of these guys have been playing really great golf lately....if you've been paying attention JB has been popping up in the 10 facts for several weeks in a row, usually in multiple facts. Molinari has been equally good on both sides of the pond, if you incorporated his euro stats into his PGA stats he's basically top 10 in every tee to green stat there is. Now the price isn't that surprising, but I did want to make a point for these two because Tiger & Rickie are going to soak up a lot of ownership, if you covered up names & just looked at recent stats alone, these two should be the two highest owned players. Speaking of those two.....Rickie is a decent favorite over Tiger this week, and I believe it's justified. Rickie finished 3rd on this course last year, generally plays well on hard courses, is accurate off the tee, and has a good bentgrass putting split. If you haven't heard from 30 different sources already, Tiger changed putters this week, and despite the missed cut at the US Open, his ball striking was still pretty good. The two highest priced players in the field, and Vegas has it as a no contest! Leishman will certainly be low owned, and finished T-5th here last year. But after closer examination you can see his 5th place was driven entirely by his short game, as he lost strokes off the tee & was basically breakeven on approach shots. I'm never one to shy away from a good contrarian play, but you have to give up a ton of EV with Leishman this week, way to much for my taste. A touch of value here as CH3 is $400 cheaper this week yet is a slight favorite over Beau Hossler. Again both of these guys have been playing great golf recently, and with similar projected ownership these are the kinds of lines that can be nice tie breakers for you if you like both guys and need to make a decision. A couple surprise lines this week, and this is definitely one of them. Niemann has played 7 PGA tour events, and has either finished top 8 (3 times), or missed the cut (4 times) in every event. Stewart Cink is red hot right now coming off back to back top 4 finishes yet finds himself as an underdog this week to the young Chilean. Niemann has been incredible with his ball striking, but the short game has been extremely hit or miss. He has putted better on bentgrass so far in his young career, and perhaps thats what the books are seeing? *Narrative fallacy may applySurprise line #2! Jamie Lovemark is $1000 cheaper than Hossler this week, yet Bookmaker has set the line as a virtual pickem. Lovemark has struggled to hit fairways basically all season, but at less than driver courses he has historically played above his baseline. Surprise line #3....Walker is $400 more expensive this week but is the underdog against the Rat. I've faded the Rat every single tournament so far and haven't regretted it yet, but this might be the first time all year that I dip my toe in. He's played most of the good golf of his career on less than driver courses while Jimmy Walker missed the cut at this event last year.Billy Ho played well here last year, gaining strokes off the tee & ball striking, but had a poor 4 rounds with his wedges & putter. Woodland has never played the course but is one of the bigger head to head favorites on bookmaker. Despite two missed cuts, Woodland's ball striking has been excellent the last 4 events he's played in, and in fact leads the field in strokes gained off the tee the last 12 rounds. BUT, Billy Ho is 3rd in the field strokes gained off the tee and has generally been better in most other categories. Another interesting line is that Marc Leishman is a very very slight favorite against Woodland despite being $3100 more expensive! Our last line of the week features a matchup that you can ONLY find on bookmaker.eu  . Adam Hadwin is flying way under the radar this week as most places have him around 10%, yet in this head to head matchup with Niemann, who is $1700 more expensive, he's the betting favorite. Hadwin also has a history of playing above his baseline on less than driver courses and gained strokes putting for the first time in 3 events. 

THE Chalk Bomb

Not a ton of chalk this week as currently only 3 players are projected for more than 20% ownership (& you certainly know who two of them are). So if Marc Leishman was going to be greater than 10% owned he'd be automatic here....I would place the odds of him exceeding salary based expectations at about 10% (so it's not zero, remember golf is random as shit), but that's pretty terrible considering he's the 2nd highest priced player. I'm just afraid that his missing the cut last week is gonna zap whatever support he had. We do have our classic setup though this week:1. Highest price of the season2. Highest ownership of the season3. Unfavorable head to head price4. Volatile (has missed more cuts than he's made)5. Going off pure scoring the last 6 events, he's 20th in the field, yet priced at #11Joaquin Niemann, your the chalk bomb! 

10 Facts So Your Lineups Can Go BOME!

1. Kyle Stanley won this event last year losing strokes putting!2. Strokes gained off the tee was extremely important last year, only 2 of the top 15 finishers lost strokes off the tee (& one of those only lost 0.01 strokes, the bare minimum). 3. Top 10 in driving accuracy the last 6 events: 1. Ogilvy 2. Stanley 3. Armour 4. Gay 5. Woodland (would not have guessed that!) 6. Billy Hurley 7. Hadwin 8. Leishman 9. Stuard 10. Lingmerth4. Speaking of Lingmerth, he won a Web.com event at this course in 2012, & Hadley finished 2nd here the following year at the same event.5. The bottom 10 in driving accuracy the last 6 events (guys that will be at least 1% owned): 1. Watney 2. Tway 3. Mullinax 4. Ollie 5. Garrigus 6. Hadley 7. Power 8. Harry English 9. Ryan Palmer 10. Danny Lee6. Top 10 strokes gained approach leaders last 12 rounds: 1. Niemann 2. Tiger 3. Garrigus 4. Streelman 5. Walker 6. Na 7. Cink 8. Stanley 9. Dahmen 10. Molinari7. Top 10 strokes gained off the tee last 12 rounds: 1. Woodland 2. JB 3. HV3 4. Billy Ho 5. Stallings 6. Hossler 7. Duncan 8. Spaun 9. Benny An 10. Sam Ryder8. Top 10 putters on Bent grass relative to their baseline: 1. Herron 2. Garrigus 3. Ogilvy 4. Campbell 5. Billy Hurley 6. Fowler 7. Lingmerth 8. Tway 9. Stroud 10. Kyle Stanley9. Top 10 strokes gained T2G at last years Quicken: 1. Stanley 2. Na 3. Gore 4. Ricky Barnes 5. CH3 6. Kokrak 7. Lingmerth 8. Watney 9. Power 10. Streelman10. Another par 70 this week, your top 10 par 4 scorers last 6 events: 1. Landry 2. Hadley 3. The Rat 4. Putnam 5. Fowler 6. Hossler 7. Ancer 8. Leishman 9. Ryder 10. Cink

Win a FREE M2 Driver!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the Drive the Green ($5), Birdie ($3), or Club Twirl ($44) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: Tourjunkies Avatar