Quail Hallow

Welcome Back!

Hope you jabroni's enjoyed your week off last week as we settle into the dog days of summer & are officially trapped with us every week until Ryder Cup time! What a field we have this week, over half of the top 20 golfers in the world plus TW! Very predictably DK & all the other sites WAY undersized all the contest, as I type this on Wednesday at 11:30 am, most contest are 70-80% full & will obviously fill way before lock...I swear they just continue to leave money on the table week after week & just don't pay attention, I'll save the rant for another day though. Jumping into Quail Hallow, one mistake I see a lot of folks already making is way over rating driving distance. It's certainly important as it always is, but total drivers of the ball have done really well here over the years. Backtesting seems to confirm that after a long run of strokes gained approach courses, this week it will carry a below average importance. And for whatever narrative you want to choose, putting definitely pops this week more than most which is always interesting since putting is generally such a noisy stat. 

THE Chalk Bomb

Man I considered quite a few people here this week, many of the higher projected ownership guys are what I would consider a poor course fit or have poor putting splits. Tiger Woods is probably a full fade again for me as we have yet to see him be able to control his driver on a driver heavy course for 4 rounds. Strokes gained approach is still Tiger's biggest weapon & with that taking a back seat to total driving & putting I just like several others much more at the top. He's still an elite bermuda putter which is why he's not the chalk bomb though he did miss the cut the last two times he played here in 10' & 12'. This weeks chalk bomb is the bomb for one main reason, putting. Just like we went over with Adam Scott 2 weeks ago, this guys cumulative strokes gained total putting is at an all time low currently at -30 (& he used to be a breakeven putter). Since the PGA Championship at Quail Hallow, allow me to rattle off his strokes gained putting by event: -3.1, -0.6, -0.3, -1.1, -4.1, -0.9, -4.7, 1.1, Masters (he averaged 31 strokes per round so he def lost strokes), -4.4. This guy is very good tee to green, so his missed cut equity isn't great but his upside should also be capped by his extremely poor recent putting. Throw in the fact that he historically has done worse on driver heavy courses, long courses, and hard to hit fairway courses and it makes a nice anti-case for a guy that played well here in the past which is why his ownership is projected to be at least 20%. Francesco Molinari your the chalk bomb!  

10 Facts You Need To Know So You Don't Whiff This Week! 

1. Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from the 2016 Wells Fargo: 1. Glover 2. Mcllroy, 3. Adam Scott, 4. Matsu, 5. Fowler, 6. Streb, 7. Woodland, 8. Steel 9. Hahn 10. Loupe2. Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from the 2017 PGA Championship: 1. Koepka, 2. Oosty 3. Reavie, 4. Casey 5. Delaet 6. Mcllroy 7. Moore 8. Reed 9. JT 10. Matsu3. Top 10 strokes gained putting on bermuda last 50 rounds (relevant guys) 1. Phil 2. Day 3. Kisner 4. Woods 5. Harman 6. Fowler 7. Burns 8. Reed 9. Berger 10. Hossler4. Top 10 guys that gain most of their strokes from approach shots that rate poorly in strokes gained off the tee (in order of strokes gained approach). Or put another way, the guys that rank top 40 in strokes gained approach but rank outside the top 88 in strokes gained off the tee: 1. Hadley 2. Cink 3. Phil 4. Kizzire 5. Woods 6. Hoge 7. Henley 8. Lovemark 9. Noren 10. Ollie5. Reverse of the above, guys that gain most of their strokes off the tee but don't rate so great on approach shots: 1. X 2. Hatton 3. Mullinax 4. Landry 5. JB 6. Mitchell 7. Glover 8. Lovelady 9. Stanley 10. Frittelli6. Top 10 guys in my course 'fit' model sub 7.5k: 1. Burns 2. Streelman 3. Landry 4. Mitchell 5. Hadley 6. Hossler 7. Mullinax 8. Lowery 9. Murray 10. Ancer7. Top 6 'sneaky' course history guys: 1. Moore 2. Streelman 3. Cink 4. Flores 5. Ernst 6. Danny Lee8. At the 2016 Wells Fargo 5 of the top 8 finishers gained less than 0.19 strokes approach per round for the tournament.9. Webb Simpson is not only a member but lives off the 7th hole, he has great course history to boot. 10. Top 10 guys in my favorite stat this week, Par 5 scoring the last 6 weeks: 1. Finau 2. Rory 3. Mullinax 4. Lovemark 5. Simpson 6. Tway 7. Kisner 8. Mitchell 9. JT 10. Hadwin

New Contest Alert!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the 200K Fore ($4), 50K Best Ball ($8), Pressure Putt ($444), or Dogleg ($33) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: TJ Avatar