The PLAYERS Championship 2024 Chalk 💣

Rain earlier in the week may have softened the conditions slightly, but with clear skies since and no rain expected until the weekend, TPC Sawgrass could very well be as firm and fast as usual. There’s no real wind to speak of through the first two rounds, but that could change heading into the weekend where there is currently a 50% chance of rain on Saturday.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Shane Lowry -170 ($9100) vs. Wyndham Clark +135 ($9700)

With plenty of big names to choose from in the ‘best field in golf’, we start with a major price/odds discrepancy in the $9k range where Shane Lowry is a massive favorite in a 72-hole matchup against Wyndham Clark despite a $600 discount in DraftKings DFS.

Both players have sufficient experience on this Pete Dye design, but Lowry has the longevity advantage. The Irishman has played in the PLAYERS in each of the last nine seasons with three finishes of T16 or better. Clark meanwhile has made four starts here and never finished better than T26 with two missed cuts.

Looking at ownership projections, Lowry is a much chalkier play at nearly 14% projected DFS ownership according to our Nut Hut data available in the Discord. Clark could make for a nice pivot play however as he’s trending around just 10%.

Brian Harman -130 ($7900) vs. Keegan Bradley +100 ($7900)

Taking a look at a pair of the cheaper options down in the $7k range, the sharp oddsmakers like Brian Harman in a head-to-head matchup with evenly-priced Keegan Bradley.

It’s a sign of their incredible consistency over their careers that these two have over twenty starts at the PLAYERS between them — so no real experience advantage here. Harman has three top-10 finishes at TPC Sawgrass, most recently a T3 in 2021. Bradley has a similar record with two top 10s including a solo fifth in 2022.

Neither of these players project to be super highly-owned, but Harman is the chalkier of the two trending around 11% ownership while Bradley is looking at closer to 7%.

Aaron Rai -130 ($6400) vs. Doug Ghim +100 ($6800)

Lastly, for a potential edge in the cheaper player markets to round out your lineups, look no further than Aaron Rai who is a major head-to-head favorite over Doug Ghim while saving you $400 in DFS.

Rai made his debut at TPC Sawgrass last year with a T19 that included an ace on the 17th hole, but Ghim has the experience advantage with three starts including a T6 in 2022 which he did follow with a MC here last year.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, Ghim looks to be the most popular player in the $6k range at roughly 11% ownership — making Rai a nice pivot option at around 8%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

It’s safe to say that last week’s Chalk Bomb Min Woo Lee didn’t do enough to ‘cook’ at the Arnold Palmer Invitational with a T44 finish, but at only $6600 on DraftKings, he didn’t kill ya if you rostered him last week. Still, yours truly is counting that as a dub and we’ll look to keep it rolling in the second of back-to-back elevated fields as the TOUR heads home for the PLAYERS Championship.

The ‘strongest field in golf’ has lost a bit of its luster with notable names playing in Saudi Arabia these days, but the increased purse and elevated status of the TOUR’s premier event means we still have no shortage of stars to choose from.

But… it seems like the public is only interested in one: Mr. Scott Scheffler. According to our DFS ownership projections available in the Discord, the World No. 1 is attracting all the chalk this week as he’s clearing 30% ownership. Loyal readers will recall that in order to be eligible for the infamous Chalk Bomb label, the player must be at least 15% owned. But with Scottie sucking up all the attention, we have a season-low FOUR players to choose from this week.

Pete Dye’s signature design at TPC Sawgrass is one of the most unique and challenging layouts on the PGA TOUR calendar and one that requires precision and an all-around sharp game to navigate the hazards and mind games presented on almost every hole. To try and find this week’s Chalk Bomb, let’s start with our course analysts at Bet the Number to see what they have in their custom model for the PLAYERS Championship.

Dye takes the big stick out of your hands early and often, and the same is true at Sawgrass where BTN has identified just nine true ‘driver holes’. As we’ve seen with previous top performers like Si Woo Kim, Rickie Fowler and Louis Oosthuizen, you don’t have to hit it a mile to have success.

Much more important is accuracy and ball striking. BTN has identified distance from the center of the fairway as an important stat for this week, and our Chalk Bomb has struggled in that department as of late. Over the last 24 rounds, this player ranks 130th in the field in proximity to the middle of the fairway. Keep in mind: there are only about 140 guys in the field…

If the Chalk Bomb can stay away from trouble off the tee, he should be able to handle the tricky approach shots at Sawgrass as he ranks 16th in the field in SG: APP over his last 30 rounds — but that’s a big if.

Experience and comfort on these overseeded Bermuda greens is also a key point to mention when looking at success indicators for the PLAYERS. Of the 40 players to finish T10 or better over the last three years at TPC Sawgrass, 29 of them gained at least .3 strokes putting for the week.

That’s not the most encouraging news for this player who ranks 97th in the field in SG: Putting over his last 30 rounds on comparable green types.

Hear me out, I actually like this guy this week. His game is seemingly on the rise and he’s someone I think we all want to see back in the winner’s circle. But if you’re looking for a ballsy fade to get a potential edge on the majority of lineups, I can’t in good faith tell you to skip someone like Scheffler or JT — so this guy will have to do. He’s projected at the second-highest ownership this week at nearly 18%, and that’s enough for me to look elsewhere.

So as much as it pains me to say, Will Zalatoris, you are the Chalk Bomb!

Volcanoes to me are like earth pimples. The giant blackhead ones.

I wonder what vegetarians feel about eating animal crackers.

People don’t talk enough about how scary scorpions are. I’ll take a run in with a spider any day over a f’in scorpion.

You never see residential real estate listings include the shower water pressure levels in the description. It’s a major factor though if you ask me in a home purchase. I mean, imagine buying the home of your dreams and not checking your water pressure levels.

Alright, that’s all I got this week. Enjoy The Players Championship on this brutal but fair test at mint TPC Sawgrass. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!