The Players Chalk Bomb/Bome 💣💣💣

The Players Chalk Bomb/Bome 💣💣💣

March 13, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop The Players at Sawgrass 

The FIRST MAJOR of the year

Welcome to the Players addition of the Chalk Bomb, where 98% of the top 100 players in the world will at least hit one shot. 

Sawgrass is an incredible enigma & test of golf for the best players in the world. Every single player in the field that has at least 3 starts here with the exception of literally two players: DJ & Sergio ALL have at least one missed cut, and most have several! Some guys that seem tailor made for this course have played very poorly, and even former champs have had stretches of bad history. It's interesting that the general consensus is that 'anyone can win here,' but I would strongly disagree with that. As you know we love to fight the common wisdom around here, and I think a key distinction needs to be made. Whats correct about that statement is that yes, both short hitters & bombers can win here. What I think is incorrect is that any ole joe can win....if you look at the last 30 years of champions, its basically the whos-who of golf with about 5 exceptions. I could make a much stronger case that 'anyone can win the Masters' than I can for the Players. Speaking of which, the debate that the Players isn't a major, especially now in the modern era, is just asinine. The question I pose to people that say it is not a major is simple.....what exactly defines a 'major' (which btw 'we' have made up over time, the US Am was once considered a 'major,' the Masters was around for 25 years before it was a 'major'). The answer is simple, it's a top 5 field strength event year in & year out, and for the top 50 players in the field, it's in the top 5 hardest to win tournaments, check, & check. Debate over. In fact, if you used just those two simple rules, and said we have to keep it at 4 majors, the US Open isn't a major anymore #Bome. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Cantlay vs. Casey 

Really clear DFS value on Paul Casey this week as he's $800 cheaper than Cantlay yet is a pick em in head to head matchups. I thought this was a slam dunk for Casey, and I still really like his side for betting and DFS, but Cantlay has been very very quietly good really dating back to the HSBC. In that time span he's played in 7 events and top 9nd in 5 of those. He also has ok history here with a 23rd & 22nd and has hit 70% of his greens in reg at Sawgrass, good for 8th in the field. Like Cantlay, Casey also has a 22nd, & 23rd finish his last two tries, and while he's played a very limited schedule to start the season, let me rattle off his GIR % the last 4 events: 84%, 72%, 72%, 78%....only about 9 players on tour even average above 70% for a season. 

MATCHUP 2

Garcia vs. Matsuyama

You'll notice a theme here, big DFS value for Hideki this week as he's also $800 cheaper than Sergio yet is almost a pickem in head to heads. Both guys have absolutely been golfing their ball as Sergio is #1 in the field in strokes gained approach the last 12 rounds, and Hideki is #6. I give Sergio the slight edge with better course history and a way better putter on bermuda greens. As David pointed out on the pod, last week Hideki LOST 8.3 strokes putting, and still finished 33rd. Something that Hideki gets zero credit for is his short game though, where he's gained strokes in 5 straight, and like Paul Tessori said on the pod, chipping around these greens is going to be very difficult this week. 

MATCHUP 3

Day vs. Scott

Sticking with the theme, Adam Scott is $1k cheaper than Jason Day this week, but is a very slight underdog this week, & was actually a pick em earlier. Only Rory McIlroy has more strokes gained tee to green at Sawgrass the last 5 years than Adam Scott. Since the start of the year Adam Scott has gained strokes putting in every.single.event (5 straight)...something he's literally never done before. However, AS is still as volatile as ever, going MC, 2nd, MC, 7th, MC as his strokes gained approach, for his standards, have been below average in 4 of 5 events this year. Assuming Jason Day's back is healthy, from a betting perspective, it's Day all the way as he has an equally (really higher) ceiling and WAY higher floor than Adam. From a DFS view, I was really hoping Day's ownership was going to be super low after the WD last week, but it looks like the exact opposite is going to be true as one of the most popular guys on the board. He's generally someone I really like fading; since the start of 2018, he's lost strokes approach on the whole which is generally gonna make up 30-40% of your scoring on the vast majority of tour stops. He is no doubt a top 5 putter and short game guy, but your counting on the unholy variance God for a lot of those 8-15 footers to drop in order for Jason to have a top 5 finish. 

MATCHUP 4

Rose vs. Koepka

I think* both of these guys are going to go under owned this week which is why I selected this line to discuss as our last matchup. Last week is a prime example of how the variance gods can both help & hurt certain players. Rose hit 61% of his greens last week & finished 63rd, Molinari hit 66% of his greens and won. Why? Well Rose got up & down 50% of the time, Moli 80% of the time, Rose lost 2.8 strokes putting, Moli gained 6.8 strokes putting. As far as history, Rose certainly has shit history (for him) here as he's played this event 16 times, and has 1 top 10 finish. Brooks on the other hand has really had a fairly high floor sans his first attempt in 15'. The last 3 years he's hit 75%, 60%, 74% of his greens here & has finished in a higher position every single year. Both guys do their best putting on bermuda, and both enjoy difficult courses which I expect Sawgrass to be this year. It's going to be fairly windy this week, 10 mph+ for the most part, and both guys also have very good results in the British Open. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week:

  • Of every player $8500 & up, he has the 5th worst GIR% in the last 5 years at Sawgrass

  • He's played here 7 times, and missed 4 cuts

  • Last week he had the highest strokes gained putting total of his ENTIRE career

  • He also just so happened to have his 3rd highest strokes gained off the tee total of his ENTIRE career

  • Of every $8400 and up, he's 3rd to last in par 5 scoring the last calendar year.

  • Even though he's played well recently, he's 90th in the field in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds

  • In that same time frame, he's 75th in the field in bogey avoidance

  • in that SAME time frame (remember, he's played well!) he's 104th in GIR's gained

  • The key approach shot bucket is 200 yards + & 125-150 yards. If you make a custom model & combine his rank in both of those he's 62nd in the field over the last 50 rounds

  • He's 88th in the field for strokes gained putting on Bermuda

  • On fast Bermuda greens his strokes gained putting drops to 113th in the field the last 50 rounds

  • On Pete Dye courses he's 66th in the field in DK points scored the last 50 rounds

  • Of players $8400 and up, he's 3rd worst in par 4 scoring the last calendar year

  • His last 6 events he's hit less than 68% of his greens in all of them

  • Cumulatively, his last 5 events he's lost strokes on approach 

  • This is projected to be his highest ownership of the season so far

  • Most books have him at +120 for a top 20 finish, so the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 20 are 54.5%. 

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 17.5% this week....Francesco Molinari, you're the Chalk Bomb!

Now is the perfect time to join right before the Players & Masters! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Players:

1.Schauffele 2. Moore 3. Hossler 4. Cantlay 5. Schwartzel 6. Lovemark 7. JT 8. Walker 9. Day 10. Koepka

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at Sawgrass (Min 8 rounds):

1. Noren 2. Reavie 3. Finau 4. CT Pan 5. Grillo 6. Knox 7. Stenson 8. Cantlay 9. Furyk 10. Scott

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bermuda:

1. Barn Rat 2. Gay 3. Day 4. Simpson 5. Thompson 6. Tiger 7. Kisner 8. Fitzpatrick 9. Langley 10. Horschel

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bermuda greens, fast greens, par 72,  and under 7400 yards, your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Tiger 2. Sergio 3. Adam Scott 4. Stenson 5. Rory 6. Hadley 7. Noren 8. Kirk 9. Walker 10. JT 11. CH3 ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. RORY (he's actually #1 in my course history model, & I don't think anyone considers his history that great) 2. Molinari 3. Koepka 4. Poulter 5. Kirk 6. Cantlay 7. HV3 8. RBC 9. Noren 10. ZJ

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 125-150 yardage bucket and 200 yards + last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1.Hideki 2. Casey 3. Woods 4. Benny An 5. Merritt 6. DJ 7. Hoffman 8. Wallace 9. Simpson 10. Rory

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Sawgrass, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Tiger 2. Rory 3. Glover 4. Knox 5. Casey 6. Kokrak 7. Furyk 8. Steele 9. DJ 10. HV3

8.

Top 10 in strokes gained ball striking (average, 8 rd min) at Sawgrass:

1. Dufner? 2. Rory 3. Scott 4. Hideki 5. Noren 6. Knox 7. Stanley 8. ZJ 9. Casey 10. Sergio

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Taylor 2. Rory 3. Conners 4. Knox 5. Sergio 6. Furyk 7. Rahm 8. Moore 9. Hideki 10. Kokrak

10.

Since we're back on a par 72, your top par 5 scorers are

 

: 1. JT 2. DJ 3. Bryson 4. Fleetwood 5. Rose 6. Rory 7. Woodland 8. Casey 9. Finau 10. Im

WIN A

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Step 4 - Screenshot your win and share with the Tour Junkies! #Bome

*If you finish Top 5 in the same DK contests, share it and we'll send you a TJ Hat from the Shop.

PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"Maybe Jim Furyk could teach my wife new things in bed, and maybe he could win you $250k this week"

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