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Still TBD to a degree on the wind, but it appears like the Thursday afternoon wave won't have to deal with the early morning gusts quite as bad. Also, the middle of the day on Friday around 1 pm the winds appear to die down a bit as well. This may be digging to deep but that wouldn't be a bad time to be finishing up your round through holes 16-18 if that plays out.As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Scottie Scheffler -112 ($10,600) vs. Jon Rahm -108 ($11,800)

Up until around noon last Friday, Jon Rahm was on a runaway train to world takeover and most of us conceded that he could not be stopped! Well, a few bogeys over the next few days and earlier this week the absolute sharpest market making sportsbooks opened with Scottie Scheffler a -118 favorite over Rahm in the Head to Head matchup market.Since then, we have seen some buy back on Rahm but as it stands, Scheffler remains the favorite. Now, if we apply the sportsbook handicapping perspective to Draftkings, it would appear the Scheffler is an incredible value this week by saving $1,200 off the top.Interestingly, DataGolf probabilities make Rahm a +137 bet here. It's worth noting that it appears Scheffler is going to be the higher owned player in DFS if you are willing to embrace some of the chalk this week.

Max Homa -106 ($9,900) vs. Collin Morikawa -114 ($9,500)

If you have been closely following the head to head matchup market movements this week, you've probably noticed the sharks have opted to fade Homa. The other side of every matchup offering has been hit but none seemingly quite as hard as Morikawa who opened up as a +105 underdog.This is somewhat perplexing because when we ran a Head to Head simulation over 100 rounds, Home won 57% of the time which would more closely mirror the starting odds. I think it comes down to a reliability for Collin, who's more likely to make the cut, top 40, and top 20 than Max via DataGolf's predictive odds.Both players strike the ball beautifully, but there is no doubt Max has done a better job at cashing in birdie opportunities thus far in the 2023 season. Collin is the cheaper option, and also looks to be projected at slightly less ownership at around 15% vs. 18% for Homa.

Tyrrell Hatton -136 ($8,300) vs. Jordan Spieth +106 ($8,700)

Here's another intriguing matchup where the heavy favorite is actually the cheaper option in DFS. In fact, Hatton actually opened as big as a -155 favorite before bets came into the counter on ol' Spiethy. Both players are coming off positive performances at the API.At this point, ownership appears to be much heavier on Hatton, projected around 15%. This is comparison to Jordan who is the only player on the DFS board priced over $8,500 that is looking like they may be under 10% owned in Draftkings contests.Hatton is the much more consistent option of the two, but Jordan has shown spikes lately, particularly with his ball striking and iron play, that could be indicative that a classic Spieth win is incoming. For the 100 round Matchup simulation, Hatton is projected to win 56% of the time which would be a true money line of -129

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Somewhat unsurprisingly, after feeling the pressure to reach extra hand on the CB last week, Tyrrell Hatton really laid it on me. It happens from time to time but we are ready to hop right back on the Chalk Bomb horse again for THE PLAYERS! The good news, hopefully for me, is that picking top owned guys to miss the cut at The PLAYERS has been shooting fish in a barrel. Two years ago, 16 of the top 32 in the field missed the cut! Here goes nothing.The PLAYERS Championship is a standardized yearly test in which the only proper preparation is having your Ball Striking totally dialed in. While many argue the enhanced volatility that this week presents, in which there are certainly cases, I would also argue that this tournament does a tremendous job of separating the guys who are striking it great vs. those who aren't. While at many other courses, the difference between a 80th percentile shot and a 60th percentile shot may be negligible, here it could be the difference between a solid look for Eagle or dropping and trying to make bogey.I like to use the Fantasy National rolling reports on Ball Striking in weeks like this to give me a good idea of how a player is feeling recently versus their baseline with their swing. Of all the options projected over 20% ownership this week, our CB candidate ranks worst in terms of Ballstriking numbers over the last 8, 12, and 24 rounds. It's also noteworthy that his ranks in Ballstriking are well below their baseline performance, where they rank 12th overall when looking at the last 100 rounds played.The Ballstriking struggles continue when you look at their Greens in Regulation percentage over the last 36 rounds, where this player ranks 2nd to last of all players priced over $8,500 in Draftkings this week. This coupled with the fact that this player is also struggling to hit fairways. We noted earlier this week that indications are the rough will be higher this week than we have previously seen, which we believe puts an increased emphasis on Fairways gained where this player ranks 118th in the field for the PLAYERS.For me, if I am to consider a player at 20% ownership, I have to feel very confident in their floor performance and their ability to finish inside the top 20 players in the field, no matter the salary. This player has done so only twice in his last 8 tournaments. Now I will say if you zoom out a bit to top 30 performances, they have managed to hit this mark in 5 straight events but the bottom line is a T25 at 20% ownership is NOT ENOUGH when it comes to winning in DFS.TPC Sawgrass is an unlikely candidate when I think of a sticky course history stop but many sites such as DataGolf would indicate there is something to definitely consider. In my opinion, this is somewhat subjective and ultimately is just giving many another reason to end up playing this player that is about to blow up their lineups. Long time no see, but for THE PLAYERS Championship, Justin Thomas, at $9,400 and 20%+ ownership, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

Did you know that squirrels are the most frequent cause of power outages? Thanks GoalbyDid you know that children of identical twins are genetically siblings, not cousins?Did you know that almost 163K pints of Guinness are wasted in facial hair each year?Joel Dahmen just don't me that his favorite part of the Chalk Bomb is reading Pontificate with Pat.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Let's have some fun this week with carnage at TPC Sawgrass. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!