The PLAYERS 22 Heavy Petting

Heavy Petting 🍑 THE PLAYERS 2022

March 08, 2022

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

  • The TOUR redesigned it somewhat in 2017 and it moved back from May to March in 2019 with some feeling like it played a touch easier with the overseed. Plays longer as well. Not as firm and fast.

  • The fairways are wider than they sometimes appear from the tee and they can run firm. Experience could lead to having a better understanding of just how much room is out there.

  • Over the last 5 years, only about 50-55% of 1st timers at TPC have made the cut, and very few have top 10s here. Course history in terms of results can for sure have a ton of variance. We think the "course history" deal may be more about experience and less about success at the event (unless it's brutally bad).

  • Greens can run firm and fast. Tifeagle Bermuda. They’re small to avg in size, but small landing areas and tons of slopes and run offs when you miss them.

  • DataGolf has Sawgrass as the 7th most difficult putting course on the PGA TOUR schedule since 2015 (non majors).

  • Sawgrass ranks 7th out of all courses on the current PGA TOUR schedule in total penalty strokes taken since 2015…right there w/ PGA NATIONAL (Honda)

  • DataGolf rates only 6 more PGA TOUR courses higher in predictive course history than Sawgrass…it’s in the Muirfield, PGA National, TPC River Highlands range

  • Since the move to March (so 2019 and 2021), we see less than average approach shots coming from longer than 175 yards. Most approach shots are coming from that 125-175 range.

  • Pete Dye designed courses are all similar enough that there’s reasonable correlation. PGA WEST Stadium Course (AMEX), Harbour Town (Heritage), TPC River Highlands (Travelers), and TPC San Antonio (Valero) are worth a look

  • It’s crucial to arrive here in good form. This is not a place to be searching for it. However, there does seem to be quite a bit of variance as 1 or 2 bad swings can really cost you out here given the hazards. Don’t be afraid to fade chalk and pivot. There’s carnage every year at this event. In 2021, 6 of 12 players at $9K and above missed the cut & 4 of the 12 finished top 22.

  • 2 of the top 10 scorers on DraftKings in 2021 were priced at $9K or above.

  • DataGolf ranks SG Metrics VS a player's expectation based on course fit. It's interesting because it can reveal cheaper/long shot players that tend to level up at a certain course. Here are the Top 10 for TPC Sawgrass (Min 12 rds): Si Woo, Hoge, Dechambeau, Thomas, Vegas, Scott, Noren, Hideki, Garcia, Koepka

  • The bottom 10 would be (Min 12 rds): Kizzire, Stallings, Finau, English, Piercy, Spieth, Fowler, Merritt, Smith, Woodland

  • This is a grinder's course that will require patience. The tough conditions, challenging approach shots, firm greens, potential for wind, etc all point to players that can stay patient and arrive in solid form at worst.

1. Strokes gained T2G leaders from last year's Players: 1. JT 2. Day 3. Berger 4. Garcia 5. Frittelli 6. Ancer 7. Si Woo 8. Gooch 9. Lowry 10. Ghim2. Rounds gained % putting leaders on bermuda grass (that also rank top 100 in ball striking): 1. Fitzpatrick 2. Smith 3. Burns 4. Griffin 5. Schauffele 6. Oosthuizen 7. Harman 8. Kuchar 9. Hadwin 10. Niemann3. Strokes gained T2G leaders in the last 3 calendar months: 1. Rahm 2.Scheffler 3. Zalatoris 4. JT 5. Niemann 6. Kirk 7. Matsuyama 8. Henley 9. Berger 10. Munoz4. On courses 7200-7400 yards, difficult scoring, & bermuda greens, your top 10 in total strokes gained are: 1. Scott 2. Garcia 3. Berger 4. Casey 5. Im 6. Simpson 7. McIIroy 8. Spieth 9. Kuchar 10. Steele5. Top 10 JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, average rough, & difficult scoring: 1. DJ 2. Garcia 3. Scott 4. Berger 5. Horschel 6. Stanley 7. Hoffman 8. JT 9. McIIroy 10. Casey6. Top 10 in birdies or better gained the last 50 rounds: 1. Smith 2. Scheffler 3. Young 4. Cantlay 5. McIIroy 6. Rahm 7. Hovland 8. JT 9. DJ 10. Oosthuizen7. Historical GIR's gained @ Sawgrass (min 8 rds): 1. Rahm 2. Garcia 3. Scott 4. Perez 5. Casey 6. Westwood 7. McIIroy 8. Conners 9. Kokrak 10. Noren8. Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds: 1.Rahm 2. Scheffler 3. Horschel 4. Noren 5. Conners 6. Morikawa 7. JT 8. Harman 9. Homa 10. Munoz9. Top 10 in proximity from the 2 main approach shot buckets (200+ & 125-150): 1.Casey 2. Matsuyama 3. JT 4. Finau 5. Morikawa 6. Hovland 7. Knox 8. McIIroy 9. Ghim 10. EVR10. Top 10 projected points per salary dollar (good values): 1. Berger 2. Conners 3. Fitzpatrick 4. Im 5. Cantlay 6. Rahm 7. Henley 8. Si Woo 9. Gooch 10. Scheffler11. Top 20 total strokes gained in windy conditions last 50 rounds: 1. Rahm 2. Morikawa 3. Simpson 4. Berger 5. Im 6. JT 7. McIIroy 8. Tringale 9. DJ 10. Niemann 11. Schauffele 12. Casey 13. Ancer 14. Hovland 15. Power 16. Grillo 17. Scheffler 18. Zalatoris 19. Vegas 20. Smith12. Top 10 ball striking on Pete Dye courses: 1. McIIroy 2. Cantlay 3. Grillo 4. Ancer 5. Casey 6. Garcia 7. DJ 8. Rahm 9. Conners 10. Streelman

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