One Year Ago...

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

It's almost surreal to think that one year ago today I was desperately pounding away on my laptop at the Jacksonville airport trying to get the Chalk Bomb out before my flight left. I was at a bar...with no mask...surrounded by tons of people that were only beginning to whisper about this 'Corona' thing. I still distinctly remember the very last interaction DB & I had at the course was with none other than Michael Collins of ESPN about what we thought the Tour was going to do this week (we all thought play would go on, but maybe with no fans worst-case scenario...which even that seemed far fetched in the moment). It's even more surreal to think about the cool shit we got to do those 2 days before the whole world fell about. DB got absolutely toasted by Brooks during the Q&A session, we got to walk inside the ropes for most of the back nine with Dahmen, Todd, Simpson, Moore, & Poston (was especially cool to walk 16-18, THE best finishing stretch on tour & it's not close), AND I got a quick ball striking lesson from Bradley Hughes who was the hottest coach on tour in 2020. (pic below)

 Alas, the world changed those next 2 weeks. But as I've always said from my time in the trading world, 'betting against human's willingness to adapt, innovate, and find very difficult solutions when up against the clock is only going to be a good bet once.' As I reflect on the last year I just want to say again how thankful I am for this game of golf that helped keep me (& probably you if your reading this email) sane in an insane year. Lots of folks wanted to bet against the game, & the PGA Tour, for being a leader in bringing some normalcy back to our lives. Well, it's been a year now, and safe to say the game has thrived.Back to your regularly scheduled program...I'm going to include notes I made from last year as well as caddie info that has been shared with us thus far.  The first thing that really jumps out is how thick the rough is. From both the eye test & what the players have said it's not terribly penal on approach shots, but you'll see LOTS of chunky chips and it's almost impossible to get any spin on the ball. The greens were NOT in the greatest shape last year, but the grounds crew seems to have corrected that this go around. Another interesting quote from a caddie we spoke to was 'I feel like these greens are putting more like bentgrass then bermuda' (due to the new time of year & general condition of the greens). The major takeaway for me after walking the course last year & seeing the prep process for the players was target GIR guys that can scramble. The real beauty of the course is that no one 'type' of player dominates here. Every single player in the field that has at least 3 starts with the exception of literally four players: DJ, Sergio, TommyLad & Adam Scott ALL have at least one missed cut, and most have several! Some guys that seem tailor-made for this course have played very poorly, and even former champs have had stretches of bad history.

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the absolute importance of the course fit. So it's a funky fit...as you can see driving accuracy has a pretty big relative premium at Sawgrass which makes sense. While missing the fairway isn't that penal, missing in the wrong PLACES is extremely penal. We see several of the bigger hitters take less than driver off a lot of the holes, including par 5's. So again, what exactly is all this data telling us? The short story is that the only thing that has had any real predictive success at Sawgrass is accuracy, which also explains why course history has largely not been predictive of future results. The weather is supposed to be pretty good all week, but keep an eye on the wind tomorrow. 

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

X vs. JT

X -115 vs. JT -101

These are the kinds of 1v1's that can make or break your week, and a great example of how to use head to heads to your advantage. So yes, X is $400 more expensive this week, so it's no 'shocker' that he's a favorite. The thing to take note of currently is JT is projected for 23%ish ownership, while X is projected at 11ish, so call it 2 to 1. So cover up the names & just look at the math here, you can get the FAVORED player for HALF the ownership of fairly similarly priced guys. That should be a no-brainer in DFS 100% of the time, no matter the outcome. Does that mean I'm down on JT? No, it simply means that if JT just plays average (or below) & X plays well, you're jumping 1/3rd of the entire GPP field with just ONE of your 6 spots. Let's break em down anyways though starting with X. At the WGC he had his worst strokes gained totals dating back all the way to the Heritage last year. But also consider that he's gained AT LEAST 4 strokes on the field in every.single.event since the Tour Championship before that. Xander is one of the rare players that can gain strokes across the board, and it's certainly not unusual for him to gain 5+ strokes just with the flat stick. While he's only played here twice, he finished 2nd in his 1st try, & despite missing the cut in 19', hit 75% of his greens in reg, well above field average. For JT, it's not that hard to see why he's super chalky this week. At the WGC, despite losing almost 6 strokes off the tee, he GAINED almost 10 strokes on approach shots. The putter has been extremely hit or miss the last calendar year , but bermuda is one of his better surfaces. He's got decent, not elite history at Sawgrass making 4 of 5 cuts, but he's been around field average in GIR% almost every year. 

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MATCHUP 2

Cantlay vs. Simpson

 Cantlay -114 vs. Simpson -103

Clear DFS value on Cantlay this week as he's $300 cheaper than Webb yet the -114 favorite. On Fantasy National these 2 project to be 2 of the 5 highest-owned players w/ lots of folks starting their lineups w/ 9k guys & working down from there. It's not that hard to see why Cantlay is the slight favorite. Even though Webb has a Players title to his name, I would argue that Cantlay has the better T2G history as the LOWEST GIR% he has at Sawgrass is 68%, well above field average. Even when he missed the cut in 2019, he still hit 75% of his greens (field average is 63%). On the flip side though Webb doesn't have to have a dominant ball-striking week to play well. In fact, when he won in 2018, he LOST strokes on approach shots which is just incredible. Webb has been better than field average in GIR's hit at Sawgrass since 2013, and it will likely just come down to can he gain 5+ strokes in the short game to get into contention (over his last 20 events he's averaged 3.3 gained per event).

MATCHUP 3

Hatton vs. Berger

Hatton -103 vs. Berger -113

These are two of my favorite 'slightly under the radar' players this week, starting with Hatton. His ball-striking has been superb to start the 2021 season. In his 2 PGA starts he's gained 6.5, & 6.2 strokes ball-striking, but he's had 2 weird blimps in the short game. At the WGC he lost 6.5 strokes around the green, a career-worst (backed it up by gaining 3.9 last week). Then he went from gaining 4.5 strokes putting at the WGC, to losing 4.9 strokes at the API, his 2nd worst effort as a professional. Then you have his Euro data that is NOT in his strokes gained data. In his 4 starts on the Euro Tour before coming back to the States, he went a cool 8th, 1st, 22nd, 6th. So taking all that into consideration Berger is still favored which should catch your eye. While he only has 1 good finish at Sawgrass, he's been above field average every year in GIR %, and has mastered the baby cut driver to become one of the better total drivers on tour. He also happens to be one of the best bermuda putters in the field and is more than capable of having a Webb Simpson-esque short game week. 

Other interesting lines:Hoffman -106 vs. Lowry -110English -109 vs. Na -107Palmer -112 vs. Poulter -104Henley -116 vs. Homa -101Conners -197 vs. Westwood +166Zalatoris -123 vs. Bezuidenhout +105Garcia -115 vs. Henley -102Finau -108 vs. Cantlay -107Im -134 vs. Fleetwood +115Simpson -209 vs. Spieth +176Scheffler -120 vs. Fitz +103Rahm -123 vs. DJ +105

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's played here 5 times and has never hit more than 67% of his GIR's

• The last 4 times he's played here, he's been below field average in fairways hit

• You HAVE to hit fairways & not miss in the wrong spots this week. This player has lost strokes off the tee in 4 of his last 5 events

• At his last event, he lost 6 strokes off the tee

• For the 2021 season so far, he's lost strokes putting total

• On firm greens, he loses strokes against his baseline

• On Pete Dye courses the last 50 rounds (he does have 50 total), he's 47th in the field in total strokes gained

• Over the last 50 rounds, he's 141st in the field in double bogey avoidance

• Over his last 50 rounds he's 132nd in the field in fairways gained and 106th in the field in good drives gained

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 112th in good drives gained, 71st in GIR's gained, and 99th in scrambling gained

• Over the last 50 rounds, he's 53rd in the field in par 5 scoring

• He has implied top 20 odds of 35.5%

At 17.8% actual lineups generated % on Fantasy National (3rd highest, though have seen him #1 elsewhere), Justin Thomas, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Going thru a fast food drive thru line has become one of the more annoying things in life these days for me. Especially with kids. I pull up to the window and I immediately have all this chatter going on in my car about all they want to order, how they want it, no this, add that, don’t forget extra ice, and blah blah blah. God forbid also that an onion touches the bread or I forget extra pickles. Then, we finally leave and some child has the nerve to yell out that I forgot the damn ketchup packets. Listen here son. You will eat those fries plain or dip it in the ketchup on your burger because we're not going back. Furthermore, next time you’re just gonna order your meal by a damn number like normal people should do anyway and we’ll be done with it. F me.

I go to the same coffee place almost every morning and order the same exact thing every time. Medium coffee, extra cream, one sugar. Pretty straightforward and plain I think (you could possibly hate on me for the extra cream, but I like it cloudy ok). Anyway, almost every time I’m in there after ordering I wonder if I’m missing out on some really great way to drink normal coffee that I just haven’t discovered yet over like 20 years of drinking coffee. It haunts me sometimes wondering is this it? Is this all there is to coffee in my life? Will I die having never tasted the best way to drink a cup of Joe? Yes that’s dramatic, but it’s true.

We laugh at dogs and think it’s funny when they get excited when they hear a bark on TV, but if TV was a non-stop stream of unintelligible sounds and then someone all of a sudden spoke to you in your language, you’d be pretty f’in startled also.

Well folks, it’s that time of year again. We get to “spring forward” our clocks to create a little extra daylight. That said. Who decided that it should be done on a Sunday? I think it should be Monday at like 3 or 4 PM. Let’s start a movement.

 Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy the Players Championship at TPC Sawgrass. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!