The Players

THE Best Field in Golf & Why Not Just Anyone Can Win

Welcome to the Players addition of the Chalk Bomb, where 100% of the top 50 players in the world will at least hit one shot. Scratch that, Paul Casey just W/D'ed as I type this, 98% of the top 50 players in the world will hit at least one shot this week!Golf is such is funny game, for the chalk bomb last week we talked about Tiger & Molinari, we ended up being right on Tiger but for the wrong reason (he gained strokes off the tee but putted like shit), and spot on about Molinari (he putted like shit just like we though, & in fact lost more strokes putting than any finisher inside the top 40!) but he also lead the field in strokes gained T2G which helped him to a T-16 in what I would have called a best case scenario for him. Sawgrass is an incredible enigma & test of golf for the best players in the world. Every single player in the field that has at least 3 starts here with the exception of DJ, Hideki, Sergio, & ZJ ALL have at least one missed cut, and most have several! Some guys that seem tailor made for this course have played very poorly, and even former champs have had stretches of bad history. It's interesting that the general consensus is that 'anyone can win here,' but I would strongly disagree with that. As you know we love to fight the common wisdom around here, and I think a key distinction needs to be made. Whats correct about that statement is that yes, both short hitters & bombers can win here. What I think is incorrect is that any ole joe can win....if you look at the last 30 years of champions, its basically the whos-who of golf with about 5 exceptions. I could make a much stronger case that 'anyone can win the Masters' than I can for the Players. So with that lets dive into what I would consider the most interesting case of great course fit, poor results. 

Just like the above gif (so many unanswered questions, & damn it I can't stop watching it!) one of the biggest enigmas is Jordan Spieth's course history here. He's the best ball striker on tour yet has missed his last three cuts at a course that was built for ball strikers after he damn near won it his first time out! So lets its break it down section by section, year by year to see exactly what is going on.  2014:  Putting: +0.4   ARG: +2.7   APP: +4.3   OTT: 3.22015:  Putting: 0        ARG: -1.3    APP: -1.1    OTT: 02016:  Putting: -2.6    ARG: -0.5    APP: 0        OTT: 2.32017:  Putting: -1.1    ARG: -0.8    APP: -1.1    OTT: 1Summary: He's putted poorly basically every year, especially his first 3 years when he was an actual good putter. Around the greens he's lost strokes three out of four years which is really the biggest shocker because year over year that has been the most consistent part of his game (he generally gains 0.5 per round). His first year at Sawgrass was the only year he's gained strokes approaching the green, also surprising since he's an elite ball striker, and even stranger is that he has gained strokes off the tee 3 out of 4 years which means he's not spraying it all over the course and dropping water balls all over the place. There's really only two conclusions that one can draw from this: 1. There's just a part of course history that we might not be able to 'see' in the data and Sawgrass is in fact a terrible course fit & Spieth just got lucky his first time. 2. With a relatively small sample size, it is certainly possible that he was simply 'unlucky' the last 3 years and it's only a matter of time until the 'on paper' fit connects with the real life results. I can't even come up with a qualitative theory as to why he's played so bad here, but I do know this: as we say in trading and programming 'sequence matters.' Look no further than the 2016 & 2015 champions (both elite players) and their track records here. Rickie went MC, 2nd, MC, MC, 1st, MC to start his career, & Day wasn't much different. Usually I would be on the other side of the debate, but because of the sequence of other past champions, I'm more inclined to believe that it's only a matter of time for JS here at Sawgrass. That being said I think there's great value in a lot of the betting matchups with him this week, check out all the lines here at mybookie.ag as they have REALLY upped the offerings for golf thanks in large part to all the feed back our listeners have given. They have a 50% deposit bonus right if you use the promo code TOURJUNKIES!  

THE Chalk BombI've gone back and forth about 100 times this week as I've tried to balance the guy that comes up number 1 after running the numbers verse projected ownership. Stenson was the obvious choice as he's projected to be at least 25% owned across the board which in GPP's should make him an auto fade. Plenty of times he's come in with great form at the Players to put up a middling result. And even though I would be surprised if the chalk bomb this week gets over 17%, in my view with his price, at least slightly above average ownership, and bad course fit, the negative expected value is just to hard to ignore. As you'll read in the 10 facts, strokes gained approach takes a big step forward (last week it was much less important) and putting also takes a big step down in importance (again last week it was much more important). A fun game I like to play (this sounds so nerdy as I type this) is I'll run my course fit model against expectations then incorporate pricing to see who has the highest negative expected value. I then try to guess the top (worse) players without looking at names. Well spoiler I was able to guess #1 before I even ran anything through the wash. Last week is/was a perfect course fit for the way this guys game had been trending. He is a bomber that has been struggling with his iron play but had been putting lights out, which is basically the perfect anti-fit for this week. As we've gone over several times in the past, players games change & evolve, & this week is another great example. If strokes gained approach goes from being way less important to way more important in a 1 week swing, do you want a core guy to look like this over his last 4 shotlink data events? The last 5 years at the Players, only 4!! guys combined have gained less than 2 full strokes approach and finished in the top 10.....5 YEARS. 4 PEOPLE. Without further ado, Jason Day, your the Chalk Bomb! (Look how excited he is)

Don't be a Beavis & Butthead, Learn these 10 Facts!

1.  Putting matters substantially less here at Sawgrass than at most other PGA courses. Half of the top 12 last year gained less than 0.29 strokes per round putting. Same can be said for 2016 when Kevin Chappell finished solo 2nd losing almost 4.5 strokes for the week!2. Driver & approach makes up quite a bit more this week as a result, last years T2G leaders? 1. Noren (who has been left for dead) 2. S. Kim 3. Poulter 3. Finau 4. Sergio 5. Weekley 6. Molinari 7. Wiesberger 8. Stanley 9. Glover 10. Ben Martin3. Guys that gained less than 1 stroke per round T2G last year but putted really well (in order of strokes gained putting): 1. Barber 2. RCB 3. Stricker 4. Koepka 5. Noh 6. Holmes 7. Hughes 8. Baddley 9. List 10. Stenson4. In 2017 at the Players, only 9 guys total gained more than 1 stroke per round off the tee, with Noren & Kim being the only ones to finish in the top 10. Not much different in 2016 as only 11 players finished with over 1 stroke gained per round off the tee, and 7 in 2015. 5. 24 players total finished with more than 1 stroked gained per round approach the green in both 2017 & 2016 with all 48 of those players making the cut. 6. Top 5 'sneaky' course history guys, & as you know, even as a former winner its hard to have 'good' history: 1. ZJ 2. Poulter 3. Bubba (anyone that makes 5 straight cuts here is hard to find) 4. KIRK 5. Na7. Top 10 strokes gained approach guys from last week (that made the cut): 1. Molinari 2. Rory 3. Webb 4. Woods 5. DeChambeau 6. Reed 7. Berger 8. Watney 9. Hatton 10. Grillo8. My top 10 course fit guys that are cheaper than 8k: 1. Levy 2. Poulter 3. Grillo 4. Kodaira 5. Simpson 6. Hadley 7. Watson 8. Hossler 9. Laird 10. Kuch9. Top 10 in my favorite secret stat this week: 1. Bubba 2. Reed 3. Grillo 4. Levy 5. Lowry 6. Henley 7. Cam Smith 8. Rory 9. Bud Cauley 10. Laird10. The par 5's are absolutely critical this week as no past champion the last decade has been less than 5 under on them for the week. 

Don't Forget About Our New Contest!!!

So we've got WAY to many listeners to not be seeing Goalby up at the top of the leaderboards every week in the DFS streets. If anyone finishes in the top 5 of the 5th Major Classic ($5), Club Twirl($44), or Birdie ($3) on DraftKings, we'll send you a TJ hat, AND if you can take one down with the TJ logo at the top when it's all said & done, we'll send you a brand new TaylorMade driver on us! Literally all you have to do is change your avatar & screenshot us those green screens! Bome! Just use the link here to change your avatar: TJ Avatar