PGA Championship Chalk Bomb 23

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It's going to be quite cold early in the mornings and there is a definitely potential of frost delays to start the mornings. We will continue to monitor the wind and potential rain incoming on the weekend.For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Scottie Scheffler -175 ($11,200) vs. Rory McIlroy +145 ($10,700)

We had to throw the enigma that is Rory McIlroy into this section this week. Narratives are all over the map, and I think he makes a really difficult player to pinpoint in terms of matchup lines. Who do you put him with? Do you make him a substantial dog against the top 2 guys or a heavy favorite against the Cantlay and Xanders?The sharpest marketing making books have elected to pair him with Rahm and Scheffler and have placed a heavy underdog price on Rory this week. Scottie caught immediate steam once this line was released after opening at -155 odds here.What will you do with Rory? If you want to play the ownership game, the Nut Hut projections have him being around 14% owned while Scheffler is going to be atleast 20+% in terms of total clicks in DFS.

Hideki Matsuyama -130 ($8,600) vs. Jordan Spieth +100 ($9,600)

The sharpest sportsbook are now offering a player at a $1,000 in DFS savings as the favorite in a head to head matchup here. Hideki has been catching more steam in terms of public perception, content mentions, and betting slips as the week has progressed.He opened up the underdog in this matchup to Spieth before being bet up to his current price of -130 which essentially flipped the odds around. You can likely catch an ownership break on each player as neither appears to be more than 10% owned this week.Both of course come with legitimate WD concerns which is certain to scare some players away in regards to ownership numbers. At significant savings, you can elect to trust the sportsbook offerings here and the current market price on Hideki.

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Denny McCarthy -185 ($7,400) vs. Kurt Kitayama +155 ($7,100)

Whoa Nelly! The sharp bettors have shown up and shown out to bet Denny this week. He opened as a -130 favorite before taking heavy money consistently throughout the week.He's shown the ability to play very well on difficult course setups recently, but hard to deny Kitayama as a heavy dog and winner of an elevated event already this season! DataGolf projected indicate this line has gotten a bit out of control, as they have a listed price of -168 on Denny this week.In terms of ownership projections, the Nut Hut research center has McCarthy sub 5% owned but you can potentially gain a TON of leverage on a player like Kitayama who may end up coming in less than 2% owned in DFS. Good luck this week and crush the PGA Championship. @Tourpicks full matchup bets of the week are now available in the Nut Hut discord.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Back to back solid chalk bomb fades as we avoided the TPC Lee chalk monster last week with success. It was too easy to be honest. This week, not so much. Ownership is naturally much more spread out in Major Championships with so many great players and the pricing is much more mature and leveled. Let's see if we can make it three great weeks in a row.Oak Hill is primed and setup to give us all the difficult Northeast Major Championship that we haven't seen in a few years. It's going to be penal, it's going to be tilting, and it's going to be frustrating for players at times. Like any Major Championship, particularly the most recent US Open and PGA Championship setups, they require a level head and patience to have success.Oak Hill presents a balanced set of holes that are going to require strong approach and iron play from a number of different ranges. That said, the most volatile range in terms of potential outcomes is going to be the long iron play, in particular from the rough. The top players in terms of pricing and ownership are typically the best in the field from the 200+ yard range on approaches.The Chalk Bomb I have selected this week however is not excelling from this distance. He ranks 136th on Tour from in approach shots from over 200 yards. From the rough, those numbers get even worse as he ranks 177th from the rough at 225 yards. In relation to other guys in the field, this particular players numbers plummet down the ranks when he isn't playing his approaches from the fairway.He has already spoken this week numerous times about how the wind, fairway sloping, and fairway firmness have made it very difficult to hit drives that end up in the short grass. They are only 28 yards wide on average and are likely to play much smaller than that come Thursday. My thoughts are that this could become a quick point of potential frustration for this player if they do indeed find the rough more than the norm and continue to performance below their baseline from this range.The other big thing and distinguishing characteristic of Oak Hill is the severe bunkering, both lining the fairways and greenside. From sources on the grounds this week, the depth is extremely severe and many players have found the sand unpredictable by nature in Rochester. The CB this week has been trash from the bunkers all season long, currently ranking OUTSIDE the top 200 players on the PGA Tour in sand save percentage. On the season, they are only making pars from the sand 34.15% of the time which is well below the standard of an elite player.This player does not possess extensive history playing difficult golf in NY either. I worry the NE Bent Grass greens will be a bit unfamiliar in nature that won't align with what he is used to. 80% of their career wins have come on Bermuda Grass, and we have pure Bent Grass tricky Donald Ross greens on display this week. The short game and putting has not been trending positively for this player either, losing strokes via the short game in 3 of their last 4 starts coming into the PGA this week.Ultimately, you are going to have to select a risky player at the top to fade this week. For me, I feel best about avoiding this player in my lineups, primarily because I have far more trust at the moment in the options surrounding them in salary. The long iron play, the bunker ability, and the putting have all been legitimate concerns despite the run a good final finishing positions. It's enough to have me feel ok about labeling this player the Chalk Bomb this week in a scary selection. At a projected 22% ownership, second highest of the week and $11,200, Scottie Scheffler, sorry to tell ya', you are the chalk bomb!

My corporate office likes to test you with these simulated phishing emails. They never get me. I am probably top 100 in the world recognizing a phish. So good luck with that compliance tech people. I read this week that flight attendants use hotel coffee makers to wash underwear. Ok fine that's all well and good but if you are actually a person that uses the hotel coffee maker then you're a sicko anyway.I can't believe in 2023 that when there's road work on a 2 lane road we still need actual humans with walkie talkies to hold the stop and go signs that direct traffic in either direction. Can't we automate that somehow? Many examples of unintended consequences arise in this world. One is that the movie Finding Nemo made clownfish really popular as an aquarium fish. Yet the movie is about the fish not wanting to be in an aquarium. Drywallers must be amazing at putting cream cheese on a bagel. There's nothing like a really good sneeze. It's like a head orgasm. Alright, that’s all I got! I'm really looking forward to this week and think we're in for quite a treat at Oak Hill. This is what it's all about as golf fans! Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!