PGA Champ HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The PGA Championship

May 16, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.Welcome back to Major Championship SZN and we are pleased for it to return to upstate New York. Oak Hill's historic club will be back on display after a newly minted 2019 restoration and it looks primed to challenge the world's best players this week. There is an abundance of terrific course previews out for this week, but make sure to include Tour Junkies very own Nate Moore's Rundown for the 2023 PGA Championship  on your list!Here are some other course nuggets and takeaways as we prepare for Oak Hill and the 2023 PGA Championship!

  • Deep, difficult, and unpredictable bunkering is going to be on full display this week, both in the fairways and greenside. Borderline half shot to full shot penality in certain instances.

  • While the rough is not overly high, it is THICC and we expect hitting fairways to be a potentially contrarian take that works out nicely this week.

  • The greens are often elevated and protected in the front by steep runoffs and steeper bunkers. The Bryson approach to winged foot of hacking it out of the rough and running it up onto the greens is going to be much more difficult this week.

  • Much has been made about extensive tree removal, but there are still literally thousands of trees on property that protect doglegs and will require punch outs if you are far off line.

  • We expect a genuinely difficult major championship test, playing much like a US Open and PGA Championships of the last 5 years. Patience and playing your approach shots to conservative spots is key!

  • We recommend factoring in bunker play into your stat models heavily. Sand saves gained is a great way to separate players in the 6k, 7k, and 8k ranges.

  • ARG game is heightened as the greens are smallish is size. Major Championships are typically a test of how well a player can get up and down for par so do not overlook ARG and short game if trying to find the winner!

  • We will have much more caddie insights in the discord as the week moves along, make sure you are active in the Nut Hut this week!

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for Oak Hill:

DataGolf Draftkings Optimal Lineup:SchefflerSchauffeleFowlerClarkHenleyTaylor

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1. Leaders in Carry Distance OTT over the last 50 rounds : 1. McIlroy  2. Young  3. Min Woo Lee  4. Clark  5. Mullinax  6. Woodland  7. Pendrith  8. Burns  9. Cam Davis  10. Thompson2. Opportunities Gained Leadrees on courses 7400 yards with difficult scoring conditions : 1. Hoge  2. Thomas  3. Rose  4. Grillo  5. Conners  6. Kirk  7. McIlroy  8. Morikawa  9. Hovalnd  10. Homa3. Top 10 players in recent positive trending form (last 20 rounds vs. their 100 round baseline) :  1. Clark  2. Schauffele  3. Oleson  4. Rahm  5. Paul  6. Scheffler  7. Cantlay  8. Finau  9. Spieth  10. Moore4. Leaders in Bent Grass Putting over the last 36 rounds with tough scoring conditions: 1. Todd  2. Hossler  3. Rodgers  4. Oleson  5. Day  6. McCarthy  7. Noren  8. English  9. Homa  10. Simpson5. Bogey Avoidance Leaders in tough scoring conditions : 1. McIlroy  2. Kuchar  3. Schauffele  4. Spieth  5. Fleetwood  6. English  7. Fowler  8. Matsuyama  9. Koepka  10. Fitspatrick6. Leaders in Strokes Gained per round at PGA Championships and US Opens in last 6 years : 1. Koepka  2. Matsuyama  3. Schauffele  4. Johnson  5. Thomas  6. Reed  7. McIlroy  8. Woodland  9. Casey  10. Rahm7. Leaders in Approach Putting Performance (avg. distance to hole after first putt) in 2023 : 1. Finau  2. Griffin  3. Burmester  4. Lowry  5. Kirk  6. Spieth  7. Johnson  8. Gooch  9. Ancer  10. Cantlay8. Top 10 Breakout candidates (ball striking it great but currently putting below their 100 round baseline) : 1. Woodland  2. Hovland  3. McCarthy  4. Willett  5. Pieters  6. Johnson  7. Morikawa  8. Steele  9. Tom Kim  10. Meronk9.  Top 10 in Fantasy Value Given Salary via DataGolf:  1. Fowler  2. Scheffler  3. Henley  4. Clark  5. Cantlay  6. Schauffele  7. Day  8. Kuchar  9. Finau  10. Si Woo Kim10. Greens in Regulation Leaders on the LIV Tour this season in the field: 1. Pereira  2. Howell  3. Steele  4. Koepka  5. Gooch  6. Garcia  7. DJ  8. Varner  9. Casey  10. Reed

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