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We'll be talking a lot of weather wave stuff in the Nut Hut live chat tonight I'm sure. Based on how many times this forecast has changed slightly, we'll be considering it until the last possible moment. For now, it appears there could be a AM/PM advantage since at least Thursday morning guys won't have SUSTAINED winds in the 20s and gusts in the 40s on Friday AM. 

The wind in the mid west can change quickly and be as predictable as Pat's behavior orbiting Planet Tito's. As we saw with The Players Championship, sometimes these things can get flipped on their head, weather can change, it can become a non factor, the wave advantage could flip, etc. So be smart with your player pool. Even when there's a clear advantage, it's usually prudent to have some exposure to the other side, even if it's a mere 10-20% of your lineups/player pool.Remember, The PGA of America is running this show. Not the PGA TOUR. The PGA of America is less likely to coddle their players and far more likely to say, "well...suck it up buttercup(s)...this is your wave/weather and go play golf." I also mentioned in my Course Breakdown video for Southern Hills that they don't get these greens up over around 11 or 11.5 on the stimp in the event the wind really gets howling, they can still put the pins where they want and continue play.

Found a lot of Sam Burns lines interesting considering his ownership is around 8% as of now. Conners opened as a -123 favorite, but the line has flipped as the H2H bettors have pounded Burns. Burns is in a somewhat dead zone in terms of ownership in the upper $8K spot among Lowry, Zalatoris, and Hideki. I see Burns as a volatile stud that could win here. He's a killer. He's won twice on a tough course in Copperhead, and from a course fit, he's got all the skills. Distance, iron play and short game. Sam Burns has it all. The PGA is full of first time major champs, and Burns is the guy I could see winning before Conners. I find him attractive at 8% or up to 10% given his upside. 

Other interesting Burns lines:

Niemann -101 / Burns -115 (Niemann opened as the favorite

Fitzpatrick -111 / Burns -105 (Fitz opened as a -141 favorite)

Smith -110 vs. Spieth -106

Whoa! This one grabbed my attention! Spieth is projected around 24% while Smith seems somewhat forgotten at around 15%. Now, this line has been steadily moving Spieth's way as it opened with Spieth a +106 dog. But our preferred sharp book that posts lines early (that other books copy) opened a lot of interesting lines against Spieth. I think both of these guys do the same things well. Jordan is certainly coming in extremely hot, but to be contrarian in DFS...fading him and rolling with Cam could be a tremendous leverage play given the variance of the PGA Championship. On the same sportsbook, Spieth opened as a dog to Morikawa and Cantlay.

Oosthuizen -128 vs. Scott +106

Funny how we've stopped hearing about Louie completely. Fun fact: I had a TOUR player tell me on the driving range at the Byron that Louie is going to the LIV Golf League. Maybe he can win over there. Anyway, the books love Louie this week as he's also a -137 favorite over Billy Ho. The Horschel line has actually been bet to a wider spread as bettors pound Louie. I'm seeing Louie, Scott, and Billy Ho all around 8%, but I swear I've seen NOTHING about Louie. We last saw Louie WD from the Masters after his first round of 76, but what else is new. But...remember when he finished runner up at the PGA, the U.S. Open, and 3rd at The Open LAST YEAR! I mean, yea...he's sucked since the end of last season, but damn. Talk about some major championship upside at low ownership.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

Ok. This is going to be a unique Chalk Bomb week. Here are the issues...this shit is hard during a major championship as the best players in the world are present and peaking. Plus, there's so much sharp content out there, extensive reporting, a ton of intel coming in from the course, etc. Everyone is so well informed during weeks like these. I'm going to try and appeal to the big balls gambler inside of all of you with this one. I could choose a guy in the $10K range so if they finish outside the top 5 to 10 highest scoring, then they'd be a worthy fade. But...I'm taking the risk of fading a guy at only $7.6K on DraftKings. This means he doesn't have to do much to pay off on his price in terms of DK scoring. Listen, I like Cam Young. I like him a lot. He checks a lot of boxes.We still have to remember that our sample size with Cam is still small considering he's a rookie. He's played in 3 majors (2 USO's and this year's Masters), and MC in all of them. So the sample size in majors is also very small. I believe he'll be a factor in a major at some point, but do I feel a strong conviction that it's this week at 20% ownership with all this wind and the variance of the PGA Championship in general?Thus far this season, he's been consistently killer off the tee gaining strokes at very high clips. His irons on the other hand have been very boom or bust and somewhat inconsistent. That's the most concerning factor on both sides. I'm scared that he has an off week with them and tanks, but I'm scared if he's on and gains like 7 strokes with the irons. Of 18 measured tournaments in his PGA TOUR career (including the 3 majors), he's gained strokes with his irons in only 7 of them. He's gained strokes around the green in 9 of 18.All in all, I'm saying this: I like Cam Young. I wouldn't dare talk you out of betting him top 20 or in some H2H matchups, or even potentially as an outright at 80 or 90/1. If you're playing cash games in DFS and want to play him, then play his young (pun intended) ass. BUT...in larger field GPPs, how many times has chalky $7K players really paid off? It doesn't more often than it does. So, with a rookie with a small sample size and 3 MC's in his limited major championship experience...the smart play would be to pivot elsewhere and find as much upside with a lower owned guy. At +20% (top 3 highest) projected ownership, Cameron Young,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

Is there ever a time during the day when a call center isn't experiencing higher than normal call volumes?There's a special place in hell for companies that make it impossible to cancel a service.If you're at one of those public speakers that say "Good morning...Oh come on, we can do better than that, GOODMORNING!" I automatically do not like you from that moment on. I am incredibly anti Water Park. They are nasty. It's like you're just choosing to go take a bath with hundreds of random people on purpose. I think a spoon is much better at spreading condiments than a knife is. If you're a Veterinarian, could you actually save a human life based on your medical knowledge?Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the PGA Championship at Southern Hills. This is a fantastic course and venue so it should make for an exciting tournament. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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