The Longest Major of Them All

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

It's official. This will be the longest major championship of all time at 7876 yards on the scorecard. It's probably easy to make the logical conclusion that this will be a super difficult scoring week, and it very well may be if the wind really picks up, but there's a couple things to consider. 1. The 2nd longest major of all time was at Erin Hills where the pros largely had little issue scoring. 2. It's still a par 72, they will have plenty of birdie opportunities on all 4 of the par 5's every day, especially if they're playing downwind. 3. It's not like the conditions in 2012 were ideal, and Rory still fired 13 under with 19 other players under par. 4. It's hard to glean a ton from a sample size of 1, but it is interesting to note that their were plenty of short straight hitters w/ good short games under par. Guys like David Lynn, Carl Pettersson, Blake Adams, Jamie Donaldson, Steve Stricker, Tim Clark, Ben Curtis, & Graeme McDowell. So while distance is always helpful, I certainly wouldn't X someone out of your player pool just because they're not a bomber. 5. Again, sample size of 1, but if you look at the scoring from 2012, the wind & weather was pretty gnarly on Friday, with only 3 people in the entire field under par for the day. But the course softened up on the weekend, and especially on Sunday, there were lots of low rounds of 68 or better. 6. Par 5 scoring will be paramount, and again, you don't necessarily have to be a bomber to be a good par 5 scorer. Guys like Max Homa, Cam Smith, & Brian Harman are all top 10 in the field in par 5 scoring. 

Speaking of wind & weather...the good news is no rain. The bad news for the players is the wind looks to be pretty steady all 4 days, with Friday & Sunday having the highest sustained wind & highest gusts. There might be a slight wave advantage for the late/early wave, but I would only use that as a tiebreaker if your stuck between 2 guys. 

(Image as always courtesy of DataGolf) With a course as long as Kiawah, you would have expected driving distance to be far & away the most important, but the course fit map says 'Not so fast my friend!' As far as pure relative importance, driving accuracy was the most predictive of future success. When you really think about it, it's not THAT surprising considering Pete Dye generally likes to give players room to work off the tee. We've heard many pros over the years comment that the key to playing a Dye course well is you have to take on the trouble and execute if you want to have the best angles & lies into the greens. Do that, and you can score. Try to do it & miss....well, it's going to be a long day.   

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Schauffele vs. Hovland

Schauffele -115 vs. Hovland -102

While Hovland is $300 cheaper on DK I think some people will probably be surprised to see him as the H2H underdog vs Xander. There's no denying the recent form with back to back 3rd's and gaining strokes across the board in both events. He's one of the best total drivers on tour which is critical this week. However, my concerns rest in his around the green game (which in fairness has improved) and his recent (very) hot putting. He's gained 4 strokes with the flatstick the last 2 times he's played, and while we obviously don't know the exact number, he certainly gained several strokes putting at the Masters as well. Hovland is also a H2H favorite against several other higher priced guys like Hideki & Morikawa. As we'll discuss in a later matchup, I always like the statistical profiles of guys like Xander at a course that will be playing long, & difficult. He gives you outs to stay around the top of the leaderboard as he's a good total driver of the ball (though hasn't been quite as good lately), is good enough with his irons, and has an elite short game. He also happens to be #1 in the field for strokes gained on par 5's. 

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MATCHUP 2

Berger vs. Morikawa

 Berger -142 vs. Morikawa +119

In all likelihood, Berger will be the highest owned player of the week. And the sportsbooks aren't going to help with that by making him a pretty sizable H2H favorite over the reining PGA champ who also happens to be $1100 more expensive.  At a certain ownership any & everyone is fadeable, but as far as a statistical anti-case against Berger, it's frankly hard to come up with one. He's driven the ball great all year, gaining strokes off the tee every single time he's teed it up in 2021. And since his missed cut at the Masters, all he's done is gain 5.5 & 5 strokes on approach shots his last two events, while also gaining strokes putting in 6 of his last 7. He's a good wind player, plays tough courses well, and is a good long iron player, ranking 14th in the field in the 2 longest proximity buckets. As we sit here on Wednesday though, Colin is projected for about half the ownership that Berger will carry. And even with a steeper price tag, I think especially in DFS, there is a value proposition here. He's the best iron player in the world, I honestly don't think there's any debate on that currently. Over his last 5 measured events, he's AVERAGING 7.3 strokes gained on approach...there are a TON of top players that probably won't even get to 7.3 in any one event, let alone average it over your last 5. He's also one of the most accurate drivers of the ball on tour, and as we discussed in the opening, good total drivers will have an edge at the Ocean course. The putter is always going to be what's going to make it either a top 10 week, or a 45th place week. But that's the kind of variance that can win you a lot of money in this little game we play. 

MATCHUP 3

Spieth vs. DeChambeau

Spieth +102 vs. DeChambeau -119

I'm actually surprised that the sportsbooks haven't come full circle & made Jordan the H2H favorite over the large golfer. While both players absolutely have the upside to win, the current data would sure seem to point to Bryson having the larger downside. It is nice that you can probably pencil him in for gaining at least 4 strokes off the tee before he ever hits a shot this week, but just like the beginning of the year, his irons have just not been sharp. He's lost strokes in that department 3 straight events, and it's basically impossible to win a major championship doing that. Now in fairness, he had done the exact same thing leading up to his US Open win last year...losing strokes on approach in 3 straight then gaining 7.5 at Winged Foot. And even though he lost 4 strokes putting last week, he still doesn't get the credit he deserves when it comes to putting. Since the beginning of the 2019 season, he's gained at least 4 strokes putting in 15 events, no one else on tour has done that. For Jordan this week, it's all about can he stay out of trouble with the driver. I think this course really sets up sneaky well for him since he can content in multiple ways. The irons are obviously back (as elite as he's been in 2021, he's still *only* averaging 6 strokes gained his last 4 events, still short of what Colin is doing). The key difference being Jordan also has the short game upside to give up a strokes or two ball striking but gained 6-10 strokes in the short game. 

Other interesting lines:Rahm -135 vs. JT +116JT -109 vs. McIIroy -107DJ -118 vs. Spieth +101Harman -131 vs. Day +112Tringale -136 vs. Homa +116Conners -114 vs. Niemann -102Ancer -145 vs. Burns +123Casey -131 vs. Im +113Palmer -116 vs. Cink +100 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's 66th in the field in par 5 scoring

• He's 53rd in the field in the two main proximity buckets

• On courses over 7400 yards he's 70th in the field in strokes gained tee to green

• On courses over 7400 yards he's 62nd in the field in DK points scored

• On long courses in windy conditions he's 94th in the field in strokes gained tee to green & 86th in DK points scored

• On paspalum courses (32 rounds played) he's 61st in DK points scored

• Over his last 10 events he's averaged -0.3 strokes gained around the green

• Since the Sony, he's lost strokes putting in 6 of 9 events

• Over the last 50 rounds he's 47th in the field in birdie or better gained

• For his career, he only gains 0.16 strokes per round in difficult conditions

• He's close to a H2H pickem with 4 guys right around him in salary that are all projected for 1/3 of his ownership

• On difficult scoring courses he's 40th in GIR's gained & 99th in scrambling gained

• On par 72's he's 52nd in the field in ball striking over his last 50 rounds

At 16.2% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (5th highest) Abe Ancer, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I feel Muppets in general are an underappreciated cinematic and television creation. Especially the ones on Fraggle Rock. I mean, there really should be some sort of official forgotten Muppet hall of fame so that we can go pay our respects to Uncle Traveling Matt and those hard working little Doozer people.

School zones must be one of the most dangerous stretches of road out there. Not because of cars going too fast, but because of all the people staring at their speedometer to make sure they’re not speeding instead of actually looking at the road ahead.

Why don’t we wash and clean our belts?

We introduced custom drink coasters to the TJ Swag shop this week (check them out, they are AMAZING). That got me thinking though, coasters are underutilized in my opinion. Perhaps this is just a me problem though. I’m literally staring at one on my desk right now and my water is 2 feet from it. Personally, I need more coaster discipline, I guess.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the PGA Championship and this beast of a course at Kiawah. There will definitely be carnage, but it should be a spectacular setting for a major championship. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!