This Week's Tour Stop PGA Championship @ Harding Park 

The 1st Major In Over A Year

My God, it's good to be back writing about a golf major championship. I guess it's a good thing we didn't listen to Alan Shipnuck & Geoff Shackelford who wanted to shut down the Tour a month ago! We've got a lot of ground to cover this week so hold on to your hats!

Weather: Early in the week there didn't appear to be a huge edge as it was supposed to be windy the entire time, but as I look at this Wednesday morning, there does appear to be a slight wave advantage at least the 1st 2 days. According to Windy.com there will be almost no wind Thursday morning until about 2pm, but after 2 the golfers will see sustained 20 mph+ w/ gusts up to 35 mph. The tee sheet is divided up into true 'waves' so the guys out in the 1st wave will certainly have the easier go, at least for 1 round. 

Quick list of relevant guys in the early wave: Conners, Chez, Henley, Palmer, Kiz, Glover, Hatton, Schwab, Steele, Dahmen, List, Lewis, English, Scheffler, Taylor, Finau, Cantlay, Day, Berger, Schauffele, Morikawa, Koepka, Woodland, Lowry, Spieth, DJ, Rose, Tiger, Rory, JT, Homa, Fitz, Ancer

Late Wave: Na, Reed, Watson, Wolff, Fleetwood, Hovland, Hideki, Fowler, DeChambeau, Scott, Rahm, Phil, Garcia, Casey, Poulter, Webb, Wallace, Leishman, Niemann, HV3, Horschel

Game Theory: If your playing in any of the top-heavy major GPP's this week, this is your friendly reminder to leave a little money on the table. In almost every Milly Maker so far, somewhere between 40-50% of the entries will use the full 50k salary. Leaving literally just $100 on the table guarantees your lineup won't be duplicated by half the field. As with every major, the pricing is very soft in the 7k-8k range so balanced lineups will be popular. I generally like to do a semi stud & duds lineup for at least 1/3 of my entries as that's a simple way to be contrarian without leaving to much equity on the table.  

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. Finally! A course that actually favors distance over accuracy! As per usual with Major weeks on unfamiliar courses, #NarrativeStreet will be a busy highway, so let's go over what we do know. 1. It's a par 70 2. It will play between 7200-7400 yards 3. Bentgrass greens 4. It's going to be chilly/windy 5. The most popular approach shot distance will be 175-200 & 200+ 6. They've greatly narrowed the fairways 7. During play at the 2015 WGC here, 9 holes played over play, 9 played under par 8. The course is named after President Warren G Harding, one of the most corrupt presidents of all time 9. There is not much slope in the greens. So what can we take away from this? I expect the course to play fairly similar to the way that Bethpage played last year with a very clear advantage to the bombers.  Some of the shorter guys will most likely have to hit 3 wood/3 hybrid on the 251 yard par 3 8th hole! Not to say a couple of short guys won't gain 6+ strokes putting for the week, but again I expect to see mostly longer hitters at the top. 

Leh Go!

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MATCHUP 1

Fowler vs. Berger

Fowler -109 vs. Berger -103

There were very few lines this week that really surprised me, but this was certainly one of them. If you remember from last week we highlighted Berger vs. Hovland in this section for the same reason...the books are still sleeping on Mr. Berger. Part of it is you need to know how the books come up with their pricing, long term scoring averages being a big weight. A year ago Berger was playing in alt field events, not even getting invites to several of the majors. For the last calendar year, Rickie has a 1/2 stroke advantage on scoring averages, which in a vacuum would spit out the price above. What the books continue to not price in is that since February (or last 24 rounds), you know who is #1 in the field in total strokes gained? That's right, Mr. Berger. NOW, there are counter-points to be made for Rickie: 1. He's one of the best bent grass putters in the field (bent is Berger's worst surface) 2. He plays well on difficult courses 3. He plays well in windy conditions 4. He seems to have turned the driver around gaining strokes in 4 straight. All that being said, for the 2nd straight week give me all the Berger in H2H's that I can get. IF* Rickie is going to be low owned though, I don't mind taking shots with him in GPP's.

P.S. Berger is in the AM wave tomorrow while Rickie is in the PM wave. LOVE getting Berger as the H2H dog for betting

MATCHUP 2

Koepka vs. DeChambeau

Koepka +106 vs. DeChambeau -119

No real surprise on the price, as Koepka has negative DK value compared to everyone he's matched up with this week, but I wanted to highlight this one in particular because I think these guys will be two of the most polarizing in the field. For Brooks....what a difference a week makes. At the Players DB & I were in the media room during his interview session, & it was like we were attending the man's funeral with everyone asking a form of, 'why do you suck at golf now?' I have to imagine that the monster chip on his shoulder pre-major wins might just be bigger than it has ever been. Since the restart the HIGHEST he's been owned in gpp's is 14.2%, I'm betting he's at minimum 21% come Thursday (or a 50% increase over his highest week). I, like everyone, have been waiting to see some form out of Brook's iron game since the restart, and he finally put 4 good rounds of ball-striking together in Memphis. I also was hoping that it wouldn't happen so he would be cheap & go overlooked, but alas, here we are. Now I'm afraid that the pendulum has swung so far that you certainly can't bet him outright at 10/1, & as the 2nd highest priced guy in DFS at 20%+ ownership, it will be even harder to pull the trigger in gpp's. For Bryson, I wanted to like him so bad this week but there are several fairly concerning trends. The most pressing being he's lost 13.8 strokes on approach shots the last 3 events combined. Also of concern, bentgrass is his worst putting surface & he historically has been a very poor player in windy conditions. While I expect the approach play to not be quite so terrible this week, you also have to consider he's also gained a shit load of strokes putting the last 4 events, which is bound to regress to the mean. 

MATCHUP 3

Day vs. Finau

Day -113 vs. Finau +100

Now here is a set of names that the books HAVE adjusted their price on. After last year's Masters, Jason Day drifted off into the wilderness of back issues & generally poor golf, particularly with his iron play (& weirdly had a long stretch of events where he lost strokes putting). Slowly but surely though, the tee to green game has started to come around, gaining strokes on approach shots his last 4 events, & strokes off the tee in 5 of the last 6. Day has always had the short game, & the results speak for themselves when the ball striking is good, with 3 straight top 10 finishes. Finau WAS the hottest ball striker the previous 2 weeks before the WGC, so you can see the books are giving Day quite a bit of respect. He was downright bad in Memphis, but I think Harding Park really sets up well for Tony. Consider that bent grass is his best putting surface, he plays well in difficult scoring, he plays well in windy conditions, and he's kind of Brooks-lite since he has 5 top 10 finishes in majors in his last 8 starts. 

Other interesting lines:Horschel -125 vs. Reavie -105HV3 -131 VS. Redman +101Fitz -144 vs. Scott +114X -154 vs. Cantlay +123Scheffler -135 vs. Watson +105Schwab -175 vs. Straka +139Morikawa -126 vs. Cantlay -104Henley -125 vs. Dahmen -105Rory -194 vs. DJ +153Webb -119 vs. Morikawa -111Brooks -127 vs. Day -103

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.Man, we had some sweats last week but things just didn't quite work out. Oh well...moving on to the PGA! I won't belabor the point Ben made above about weather, but you'll see a strong AM bias in both my Outright and FRL selections. I'm going heavy on FRL just because there's clearly an edge. If I whiff...that's going to suck as I've only got 3 outrights on the card. However, if I hit...LIVE BETTING DB B*tches! Also, went pretty long on the FRL numbers as there are even more likely to be ties in tough conditions on a tough golf course. It's a lot harder to seperate from the pack with a setup like this, so plan for the split pot. Recent form is key here more than most stops on the regular tour, and every one of these guys comes in with a T30 or better in at least 1 of their last 2 starts. Finau sucked at WGC, but was super hot before that. And Glover missed his last cut, but was a Top 25 machine prior to that since the restart. Everyone else...has been spot on recently.

Through 26 Weeks: Spent $1300 / Won $1600 / Up 30 unitsFirst Round LeaderLowry (80/1)_$5, Reavie (80/1)_$5, Conners (90/1)_$5, Dahmen (100/1)_$5, Glover (100/1)_$3,Lewis (100/1)_$3, N. Taylor (100/1)_$3Outright WinnerHideki (45/1)_$6, Finau (55/1)_$5, Lowry (75/1)_$5, Palmer (125/1)_$5

You can tell I believe in Lowry this week, right...he's just checking all the boxes since the restart, he's the Open Champion, he's got a WGC victory, and he's contended in Majors. The Chez-ticle comes in with stupid solid form. He just doesn't get in a lot of trouble, and although I like players with a little length this week, I'll sprinkle some Chez. Conners, Dahmen, Glover, Lewis and Taylor (of the Nick variety) are all neither bombers or short knockers. However, they are all splendid ball strikers arriving in good form when you look back since the restart. Conners is perpetually 1 hot round with the putter away from going off considering his ball striking. Joel is confident and his tee to green game is perfect for a tight course in tough conditions. These are the setups he loves. Lewis is a long hitter that has found his share of fairways of late, especially on his way to a 61 on Saturday at the WGC! And, Taylor is another ball striking, Canadian that doesn't get in a lot of trouble, but has also been known to find the top of the leaderboard on a Thursday.Hideki is my only PM/AM guy and it scares the fecal matter out of me! But, I believe in the ball striking and the upside who nearly won a similarly tough PGA Champ track in Quail Hollow a couple of years ago. Finau is long enough to win, in solid form despite a rough WGC and it just feels like Finau would go from winning the Puerto Rico to winning a Major and trolling the shit out of everyone! And finally, Ryan Palmer, another player that scares all the waste from my intestines. But...damn if that runner up at Memorial wasn't impressive a couple of weeks ago. He's a long, straight driver of the ball and the Texan can play in the wind. Damnit if Shaun Micheel can win here...so can Palmer!

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a head to head underdog to 3 guys that are cheaper than him in price & a very slight favorite to someone that is $2700 cheaper

• Last week was his highest tee to green total in over a calendar year

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 4 of his last 8 events

• He's lost strokes putting in 7 of his last 10 events

• This is projected to be his highest ownership week since last years PGA

• He's the same price for a major, as he was at the weakest field event since the restart

• Since the restart, he's tied for the lowest driving accuracy % of everyone priced $7900 & up

• Since the restart, he's gotten up & down only 48.9% of the time when he misses a green

• Since we're going from bermuda to bent, he has a negative putting split

• During his career, he has struggled in the windy conditions

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 34th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 34th in the field in par 4 scoring

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 78th in the field in proximity for the two main approach shot buckets 

• According to golfing lore, this guy purposely sandbags regular tour events to trick people like me in every major the last 2 years

At 21.7% actual FNGC LU generated (3rd highest), though it pains me to say it, Brooks Koepka, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

During these Covid times and kids being out of school I have quite enjoyed speeding thru school zones. Especially when that yellow light is blinking because it’s on a timer and has no idea about Covid. Anyone else getting this same satisfaction?

I don’t know if anyone else thinks this way, but when I’m cooking canned food like some green beans or Spaghetti O’s for the kids I make sure every morsel is out of that can and in the pot before throwing out the can. I mean those beans and O’s want to be eaten and can’t be left behind.

I also really appreciate it when I wave someone across a crosswalk and they hit that little trot

Is the S or the C silent in scent? Why is English so fancy like that?

If you get out of the shower clean then how does your towel get 'dirty?'

If you really think about it, there are twice as many nipples in the world as there are humans

There should be a reality show where flat-earthers have to find the edge of the world

When I was young I would sneak out to go to parties, now I sneak out of parties to go home

Why is it that the best part of the cucumber tastes like the worst part of the watermelon?

You know what's the most badass animal on Earth? The Duck. It can fly, swim, & walk on land, they have access to all terrains. 

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the stacked and star studded field this week for the PGA Championship. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last 24 rounds:

1. JT 2. Hovland 3. Henley 4. Garcia 5. Matsuyama 6. Morikawa 7. Rahm 8. Berger 9. Schauffele 10. DeChambeau

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders last 24 rounds: 

1. Furyk 2. Henley 3. Schauffele 4. Morikawa 5. DeChambeau 6. Korkrak 7. Scott 8. Casey 9. Rahm 10. Streelman

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Na 2. Spieth 3. Rose 4. Horschel 5. Kisner 6. Fowler 7. English 8. Wallace 9. Simpson 10. Kaymer

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards,difficult scoring, and bent greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Rose 2. Dufner 3. Rahm 4. Woods 5. Matsuyama 6. Furyk 7. Watson 8. Schwartzel 9. Spieth 10. Cantlay

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, difficult to hit fairways, and difficult scoring courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1. DJ 2. Stenson 3. McIIroy 4. Watson 5. Bradley 6. Cantlay 7. Finau 8. Casey 9. Furyk 10. Rose

6.

 Your top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

 1. Henley 2. Morikawa 3. Dufner 4. HV3 5. Rose 6. Niemann 7. Steele 8. Grillo 9. Wolff 10. Simpson

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at Harding Park, so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1. JT 2. DeChambeau 3. McIIroy 4. Hatton 5. Reed 6. Fleetwood 7. Schauffele 8. Berger 9. Simpson 10. Ancer

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 175-200 & 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. Grillo 2. Leishman 3. Morikawa 4. Straka 5. Luiten 6. Hatton 7. EVR 8. Steele 9. Casey 10. Reavie

9. 

Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds:

1.Watson 2. Schauffele 3. Streelman 4. CT Pan 5. Casey 6. Hovland 7. Chez 8. Koepka 9. JT 10. Ancer

10.

Top 10 'values' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Rose 2. Fleetwood 3. Spieth 4. Wiesberger 5. Matsuyama 6. English 7. Reed 8. Scott 9. Casey 10. Leishman