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The first two days of play appear to be relatively calm. While still several days away and with an understanding that things could change, Saturday afternoon looks to get really windy. Gusts and sustained winds are nealy 3X from 10 AM to 4 PM.It's important to notate with a 54 hole cut as many players will be making a run at the cutline during this time. We'll discuss more in the LIVE chat tonight about which courses are the most exposed during the winds and which course is best protected that you want to be on during the Saturday round.As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

Jordan Spieth +108 ($10,600) vs. Matt Fitzpatrick -138 ($10,100)

We start at the top of the board with this matchup of Spieth vs. Fitz. The market making books opened Spieth at +112 but have since taken some money on the highest priced player in this field for Draftkings. It's interesting that you can save $500 in DFS by pivoting to Fitzpatrick when the sharpest sportsbooks still have him as a substantial -138 favorite in the head to head matchup.Both players appear to be checking in at around 20% ownership so no relative advantage there. Jordan comes in with much better Course History finishing top 10 in three consecutive years which includes 2nd last year. Fitz has been mediocre, he finished 6th last year but the two previous times playing the Pebble Beach Pro-Am resulted in a 60th place finish and a missed cut.Spieth had been playing really well before the missed cut at the Sony, but let's not forget he was FRL. He played better than 155 players on Thursday, and everything was clicking. It was just a horrid Friday that cost him. If you run a Head to Head matchup simulation of 50 rounds, Fitz has a win probability of 63% which is definitely worth consideration.

Seamus Power +107 ($9800) vs. Maverick McNealy -137 ($9600)

I was surprised to see McNealy open such a substantial favorite. There are some books who posted this matchup at nearly even odds before getting flooded with Mav dollars. Recently, the line has been pretty stagnant here but still interesting to see there has been no buy-back on the more expensive Power.We'd be remiss to not mention a potential massive swing in ownership here. Our projections have Maverick the highest owned player in the field at nearly 24% while Seamus looks to be the lowest owned player above $9500 (projections are 12%).The "lives on the course" narrative has been rampant, and there is no doubt he has had undeniable success at Pebble. That said, in McNealy's last 36 rounds, he's failing to gain any strokes on the field in OTT, APP, or ARG. He's essentially riding the putter exclusively to good finishes which is always shaky on a guy garnering this much ownership in DFS.

Kevin Kisner +112 ($8500)  vs. Kevin Streelman -142 ($7100)

In our third matchup, the two Kevin's present us with the biggest the WTF matchup of the year. The difference in head to head matchup lines and Draftkings pricing is WILD! I think we all realize the misprice in DFS, but it's still a unique scenario where Streelman is such a giant favorite here.If you remember back to last year, Streelman was our Chalk Bomb, he arrived at roughly 19% ownership and left with a trunk slam missed cut on Saturday. We're not seeing much from a stats standpoint that would indicate he's in for a good week as the numbers have been red across the board, aside from great long term course history.Kiz is interesting because even though he says he hates POA, we know statistically it is his best putting surface. He is also projected around half the ownership of Streelman this week at sub 5%. We also know he's in the midst of a coach/swing change which is probably the reason we haven't seen him yet in 2023, but worth noting that he did gain 3.2 strokes on Approach at the RSM which was the last full field event we saw him play.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We maybe got a little too bold last week trying to fade Jason Day as the chalk bomb who once again played really well at the Farmers. A little egg on the face is going to happen from time to time with the CB, but we're not backing off the aggressive fades once again this week at Pebble.

Our CB this week checks in firmly inside the top 5 in projected ownership. If you are bold enough to fade the CB this week, when he bombs you are going to eliminate roughly 25% of the entries in your contest. It's worth noting, we are determining the Chalk Bomb based on GPP strategy, which is often very different from Cash Game strategy. If you want to take down a GPP with 50,000 or 100,000 entries, you're going to need to be aggressive and make some bold plays.

This players performance at Pebble in the past is difficult to argue against, he's seemingly played well above his baseline at this event the last 3 years. There's reason to believe the familiarity with the course and this part of California is worthy of a play in itself, but taking a deeper look at some of the recent numbers makes you believe in the chances this player blows up a good lineup.All the courses in the rotation this week are short, but Pebble in particular presents players with more sub 150 yard "Wedge" shots than almost any other stop on Tour. Nearly 47% of approach shots last year came under 150 yards according to DataGolf. This guy just isn't good with his wedges! Of the top 15 players in projected ownership, hes both the worst in total SG: Approach and approach proximity under 150 yards.This player is also the most inaccurate OTT in terms of hitting fairways of all the players priced over $8,800 in DFS. He's only hitting 54% of fairways in his last 36 rounds while the majority of players in his price range are around 65%. The only metric where he is separating himself from the field is his putting, which must be noted as being one of the best in the field.So...to recap: He's not accurate Off the Tee, he struggles with short irons, but he's had a red hot putter and solid course history to stand on. The parts of his game where he excels are some of the most volatile, where the most consistent measures are diagnosing some major flaws. I believe this makes him the perfect candidate for a Chalk Bomb and full fade if you want to take down a big one!Arriving home on the west coast at an outrageous 25% ownership (top 3), Maverick McNealy, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

I feel like the computer mouse has been around too long and overstayed its welcome. We need some other new invention that moves the cursor around for us. It drives me crazy that I'm left handed but I can't wink with my left eye. It also upsets me that I can't whistle. I have tried for many many years. Can't do it. F'in BS.I don't understand why I have to have a chip to eat some dip. What if I just want to eat it with a spoon? Don't judge me jerks. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy watching Bill Murray hack it up on the shores of the Monterey Peninsula at Pebble Beach. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!