Pebble Beach Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Pebble Beach Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

February 06, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 

Teddy Potter, Randomness G.O.A.T

Golf can be random as fuck. Look no further than last year's AT&T winner Ted Potter Jr, who over the course of his PGA tour career has lost about a half stroke per round to the field. Lets rewind the clock & see if* there was anything that could have predicted his unlikely win over the likes of Jason Day, Phil Mickelson, and Dustin Johnson. 

Good Form heading in? Nope, he had just earned his card back from the Web.com tour. From the Safeway Open to the Farmers Insurance he played 8 times and missed 5 cuts. He had 2 OK events where he hit 77% of his greens, but the other 6 events were all well below average. One interesting note while I was digging through the data was that in his last start before Pebble, he did fire a 66 in round 1 which almost made him the leader out of the gate, but then crapped the bed the next 3 rounds (w/ an 82 on Sunday! His last round before his win.....)

Course History? Not really. He has played here 3 times prior, missing two cuts, though he did have a 16th place finish where he was the 36 hole leader. His stats from that 2013 tournament were not very different from his 2018 stats, but that's zooming in pretty far and hard to trust. I can't find his hole by hole breakdown from 2013, but obviously from last year his 62 (w/ 2 bogeys on the card!) accounted for over 50% of his total score. One other interesting note is that he started the tournament on Pebble, the hardest course, and hit 16/18 greens on day one. 

Course Fit? Nope, I had him in the bottom 50% of every key stat I was looking at with driving distance being #1. Last year Ted averaged 287 yards off the tee, good for 16 spots above DFL on the PGA tour. Literally the only thing that pops a little is Poa was his best putting surface...that's it. 

Conclusion: Golf is still random as fuck. I point this out this week because with the weather being very windy and rainy, that's the perfect avenue for another randomness goat to take home the trophy this week (Jim Furyk wins, you heard it here first). I'm going to do a cluster of lineups with zero of the top 5 projected guys and have a very wide player pool this week. Another fun side note, his only other win (Teddy P), the 2012 Greenbrier, he missed 5 cuts in a row leading up to it. Randomness G.O.A.T

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Casey vs Reavie 

Chez is projected to be one of the top owned golfers this week, but the guys in Vegas (or London) are saying that most of us are over looking Casey. Now keep in mind we only get strokes gained data on Pebble (2 rounds) every year for this event, but last year Casey lead the field in strokes gained tee to green with an unreal +6.48 gained on approach shots between the two rounds. The only thing that really held him back was he averaged 30.3 putts per round for the entire event and lost almost 2 full strokes in just his Pebble rounds. Chezticle on the other hand gained did most of his damage around the greens & putting and almost lost strokes on approach which is supposed to be his strong suite. One last note on Chez, hit last 3 events here are his GIR %'s: 78, 72, 66....he's putting and chipping at a highly unsustainable rate. If Chez was in one of the bad draws he was probably going to be the chalk bomb, and I personally am still going to fade him. 

MATCHUP 2

Holmes vs Henleyl

That's right, your boy isn't the only person on planet Earth with typo's! Or, maybe Russ has just been reading the Fantasy Sommelier article on One Groove Low so much that it made him want to fancy his name up, like Joe Deertay. Yes, Holmes is more expensive this week ($300), but as much as I try to avoid other DFS content before I write this every week, it's been impossible to not see Henley getting touted a ton (why I'm not really sure). He's been...ok the last couple events....he has, ok, history....I don't know. Holmes on the other hand has sneaky good history here, yes he missed the cut last year but was very good tee to green. For those that just glance over his box score, it's also sneaky, as he was really good tee to green last week and lost strokes putting again. It also just so happens that he plays his best golf on Poa greens, hard courses, and in windy conditions....check, check, check.

MATCHUP 3

Lowry vs Fitz

This probably isn't a line that many are going to look at, but features two under the radar guys this week that I like. Lowry's course history is 'ok' if your just looking at finish position, but his tee to green game has been really good here every single year he's played. Consider this, last year in Teddy Pot's victory, he hit 74% of his greens in reg...the LOWEST % Lowry has hit at this tournament is 71%, oh & btw these are some of the smallest greens on tour (ps. he's also in good form). Fitzy has also had a nice start to the year with a 4th & 16th place finish to go along with really nice ball striking numbers. 

MATCHUP 4

DJ vs. Fleetwood

Tommy boy makes his PGA debut for the 2019 season, but the books are not particularly bullish on him this week. If your doing the math at home, DJ having -225 odds over Tommy Boy is an implied win percentage of 70%. Now if Tommy was gonna be sub 7% owned & DJ was gonna be 40%, sure, take the leverage to hit the 30%, but I just don't see Tommy being under 15%. Outside of Riv, DJ probably has his best course history here and he just so happens to be coming off a win. HOWEVER, that win happened on the exact opposite side of planet Earth. As we learned at last years Sloan Sports Conference, that kind of time zone travel can have a UGE impact on performance. Remember in 2017, DJ played in the Abu Dhabi event then the Farmers the very next week and ended up missing the cut at 40% ownership. 

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Stats about our boy this week:

  • Poa is his worst putting surface

  • It's supposed to be very windy for the Friday & Saturday rounds, our boy gains almost 40% less strokes on the field in windy conditions compared to all other conditions

  • Despite 'good' course history, last year was actually his best putting performance and he didn't finish in the top 15

  • At the Sony, Farmers, & Waste Management Open, he hit 68%, 56%, & 58% of his greens in reg #NotGood

  • His best finish of the season so far, he couldn't even crack the top 15 even though he gained 6.6 strokes on the field putting

  • Since the start of the 2019 season, here are his strokes gained tee to green numbers per event: TOC: -3.7 Sony: +0.5 Farmers: -2.3 WMPO: -3.3 #NotGood

  • On easy to hit fairway courses, he loses strokes against his baseline

  • This was his highest owned event of the year last year at 22.7%

  • WEATHER: I expect there to be AT LEAST a full stroke in course rotation edge for the 3 courses. Thursday is basically going to be the only nice day for the entire event. Given the way DK scores, I want my guys on Monterey Peninsula making as many birdies as possible on the best weather day. This guy has the worst of the draw playing the hardest course (Pebble) on the best day

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 18.9% this week....Brandt Snedeker, you're the Chalk Bomb!

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1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years AT&T (remember only get SG data on Pebble):

1. Casey 2. Harkins 3. RBC 4. Chappell 5. Burgoon 6. Henley 7. Potter 8. Na 9. Choi 10. Hahn

2. 

Historical GIR leaders at Pebble:

1. Adam Scott 2. Grace 3. Etulain 4. Casey 5. Lovelady 6. Lowry 7. Furyk 8. Lashley 9. Finau 10. Stallings

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Poa:

1. Phil 2. Fathauer 3. Jacobson 4. Hadwin 5. Day 6. Kim 7. Baddeley 8. Spieth 9. Walker 10. DJ

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ Poa greens, easy to hit fairways, and short courses, your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. DJ 2. Holmes 3. Walker 4. Casey 5. Taylor 6. Snedeker 7. Streelman 8. Harkins 9. Spieth 10. Reed

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Lowry 2. Reed 3. Stallings 4. Streelman 5. Jacobson 6. Perez 7. Furyk 8. Casey 9. Holmes 10. Matt Jones

6.

 Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds (who's a hot ball striker):

1. Grace 2. Fleetwood 3. Gooch 4. Furyk 5. Laird 6. Lowry 7. Conners 8. Holmes 9. Glover 10. Armour

7.

Top 10 in good drives gained over the last 50 rounds:

1. Langley 2. Reavie 3. Connors 4. Im 5. Streelman 6. Glover 7. Fleetwood 8. Cantlay 9. Dahmen 10. Furyk

8.

100-125 was the most hit approach shot, your top 10 in that distance is:

1. DJ 2. Connors 3. Hadley 4. Taylor 5. Malnati 6. Mullinax 7. Knox 8. RBC 9. Furyk 10. Finau

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Conners 2. DJ 3. Hadley 4. Albertson 5. Finau 6. Dahmen 7. Lovelady 8. Stallings 9. Holmes 10. Taylor

10.

Top 10 strokes gained putting at last years AT&T:

1. Day (by a mile) 2. Reavie 3. Snedeker 4. Knox 5. Grace 6. Baddeley 7. Rodgers 8. O'Hair 9. Stallings 10. Walker

WIN A

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"After 5 days of being on the wagon, I feel sorry for people that don't drink. When they wake up in the morning, that's as good as they're going to feel all day"

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