The Open Championship Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

The Open Championship Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

July 17, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop The Open Championship @ Royal Portrush 

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Glory's (New) Last Shot

I'm extremely excited for this event. It's the last major of the year, for all practical purposes it's a new course, and to boot it's a course that has been a staple in the top 20 of ALL courses on planet Earth. It should also be a special week for the people of Northern Ireland and hopefully for golf in general. While 'The Troubles,' cost 3700 people their lives over the course of 2 decades have largely quieted from the peak violence of the 70's-90's, Northern Ireland still remains a nation very much divided. It's estimated that 107,000 Irish & UK citizens have suffered direct physical injury from the conflict or 6% of the entire population. To put it into perspective for Americans, that would be the equivalent of 20 million people, or the entirety of the state of New York. But thats whats so great about golf, and sports in general, is it has this wonderful power to bring people together that otherwise would never be around each other. Sports have this funny way of being the starting point for common ground, a starting point for the healing process. The Open Championship coming to Norther Ireland will hopefully be another step in that process, and I'm hopeful that the record sellout crowds will show the world why Golf can transcend political, religious, economic, ethnic, and all other 'worldly' problems. Below is a link to the story that won the Arthur Ashe Courage Award at the ESPY's for sports in the region, it's an incredible watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sl-PGUX4BTUI've been putting in some long hours researching the last week because from a DFS perspective, this is my favorite tournament of the year. Allow me to elaborate....A. It's a Major B. the 3 biggest weeks I've ever had in DFS golf all came in tournaments with large to very large tee time splits because of rain/wind....from what I hear they tend to get both of those in Northern Ireland.C. I get to take advantage of the fact that a large portion of players this week do not take into account that the European tour just started using strokes gained (& has done a shit job at integrating it in any meaningful fashion). Now, you can find season long strokes gained data on Europeantour.com, but it still presents problems when comparing players. Take for example a guy like Andrea Pavan. He's literally never played in the states, so a ton of DFS players would skip right over him because they probably don't have any data, but that would be a mistake. He's finished 4th, MC, MC, 1st in the four Euro events leading up to the Open, and has hit at least 72% of his greens in regulation the last four events (even in his 2 missed cuts!) at a mere $6400. Or take a guy that plays on both sides of the pond like John Rahm. If you just look at his traditional strokes gained you basically have three events of info to look at since MID-MARCH. The data that you don't see would surely raise his strokes gained tee to green the last 24 rounds from 25th to much higher. The events not included in his strokes gained are his 9th place finish at the Masters, 2nd place finish at the Andalucia Masters, and WIN at the Irish Open....3 top 9 finishes and NONE of that is in his strokes gained data! And one last really great example (which I'm sure will be talked about by this point on Wed, but just in case!)....Bernd Wiesberger, if you look at his strokes gained it's basically shit dating back to the start of the 2018 season (because he has literally 3 events of data in a year & half!). But again what you don't see in his history is a Win, 8th, 76th, 16th, 2nd, WIN......two wins & a 2nd in his last 6 events, and you would never know IF your not paying attention!  Speaking of wind! I've spent an embarrassing amount of time trying to figure out in my own back testing if there is such a thing as a good wind player. So let me save you a week of research and sum up my findings in 3 words from the only actual conclusion that I could confidently come to....wind=bad. There seems to be two key 'tipping points' at which PGA level golfers scores will start to be adversely effected by the wind. Tipping point #1 occurs at about 12 mph....you could call it the 'continental shelf' where performance goes from your standard baseline to the beginning of the drop off. Tipping point #2 is at about 20 mph...at 20 mph you basically go from the continental shelf to the abyss of performance, no matter who you are. If you really want to dig into it, the tournaments I found where the tee time wind speeds were 20mph+ (going backwards in time the last 2 calendar year): 3m, Irish Open, Charles Schwab, British Masters, Corales Punta, the Players, Qatar Masters, Puerto Rico Open, Genesis Open, British Masters (18), Alfred Dunhill (18), Made in Denmark (18), Nordea Masters (18), Open de France (18), US Open (18), Valspar (18), Honda (18) , CJ Cup (17), Andalucia Masters (17), Alfred Dunhill Links (17), British Masters (17), British Open (17), Scottish Open (17). If you care to know the winners from those events, scroll down to the 10 facts. Below is an image of the wind projections as it stands today at 10am EST. Looks like Thursday AM gets the worst of it. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Scott vs. Stenson 

This pairing should be one of the most heavily owned this week, and rightfully so. Since the calendar turned to March Henrik Stenson remembered that he's Henrik Stenson, finishing in the top 10% of GIR's hit at 9 of his last 11 events. His form has continued to improve as we get deeper into the season as he now has 3 straight top 10 finishes and could have easily won the Scottish last week if he putted better (he hit 66 of 72 greens in reg!). Throw in the fact that over the last 5 years only 2 other players have gained more total strokes at the Open than Stenson (plus he's obviously a previous winner). At just $8400 it won't surprise me if Stenson is over 30% owned in the Milly Maker, at which point you'll either need to fade completely or double the field. Not be outdone, seeing as how he is favored over Stenson, Adam Scott is ALSO coming off 3 straight top 10's (all at difficult courses) and in fact lost strokes putting for the very first time all year at the US Open. While AS should* have at least one, if not 2 Claret Jugs, only 6 players in the field have gained more strokes at the Open the last 5 years than he has. Scott appears in the 10 facts 8 times, Stenson 7 times. I would guess that you'll get some kind of ownership discount with AS but I still expect him to be very popular. 

MATCHUP 2

McDowell vs. Poulter

Really clear DFS value on Poulter as he's $200 cheaper than Graeme but the -140 favorite. Graeme was in position to be pretty chalky before his last two events where he played quite poorly, particularly at the Scottish Open. But Graeme might have a little home court advantage as he claims to have played Royal Portrush 350-400 times. Poulter on the other hand is just coming out of a rough patch in which he almost missed 3 straight cuts, but he's another guy where if you only looked at his strokes gained data it would be very misleading in regards to his recent form. He's played really well tee to green in the two lead up events, the Irish & the Scottish, hitting 72% & 85% of his greens in reg. Poulter is another guy thats had some really close calls at the Open and has generally played well on links style courses. 

MATCHUP 3

Thomas vs. Spieth

Well, I wish I could give you a compelling case to play Jordan, but believe it or not he's actually getting worse. Starting with his (up to that point) 2nd best finish of the season at the Bryon Nelson (he finished in 29th) here are his GIR % #'s: 76%, 61%, 62%, 58%, 51%, 50%. Now obviously there are 3 top 10's in there that are 100% short game driven, and I guess the one silver lining is he's found his putting stroke again. You'll actually see his name a couple times in the 10 facts, but it's mostly due to history, which hasn't help him so far this year. JT on the other hand has been almost the exact opposite, his tee to green game has been trending nicely even though the results haven't been there (mostly because his putting has been poor). He *should* fly under the radar this week as he's never really played well at the Open, despite playing some of his best rounds (& wins!) in very windy conditions. 

MATCHUP 4

Schauffele vs. Fleetwood

This was one of the few prices that really surprised me this week. Now as you'll see in the 10 facts Tommy Lad does play above his baseline on links courses, but for someone who's as elite a ball striker as he is, he sure seems to not string together a ton of high finishes. He's been above field average in GIR hit % in every event besides 1 this year, and somehow he only has 3 top 10 finishes, one of those coming in a weak field Euro event. He's in good form as he was 2nd in the field at the Irish Open hitting 83% of his greens, but a lot like the Gary Woodlands of the world, when your as bad a putter as Tommy Lad is it's going to make you a very volatile play. Brooks Koepka lite aka Xander who seems to play his best golf in majors is underpriced again. Over the last 100 rounds, Xander has beaten Tommy 14/25 times straight up. When it comes to DK points over the last 50 rounds Xander also has a large edge as he's 8th in the field compared to Tommy at 24th. 

Other interesting lines:

DeChambeau -145 over Wallace

Simpson -125 over Hatton

Lorenzo Vera -125 over Campillo

Stenson -115 over Fowler

RCB -115 over Garcia

Wallace pickem against Oost

Fitz -120 over Finau

Matsuyama -115 over Day

Fitz -150 over Pepperell

Leishman -115 over Wiesberger

Cantlay -115 over JT

Couple other interesting sportbook notes: They have the cut projected at 2 over, with the odds leaning slightly to a higher cut #. The odds are also favoring 18 or less players to shoot under par currently, with the low round over/under at 64 & the winning score over/under at -12. 

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: 

  • He hasn't missed a cut in exactly a year...his last missed cut? The Open

  • He's missed 2 of his last 3 cuts at the Open in fact

  • He's smack dab in the middle of the worst part of the wind draw tomorrow

  • Speaking of wind....he has one of, if not THE worst wind stats in the field. Not only does he lose strokes against his baseline at every incremental wind mph increase, he loses strokes TOTAL in extremely windy conditions. That's an almost 5 stroke drop from his 'normal' baseline

  • He's usually really good around the greens, but he's lost strokes in that category in 2 of his last 3 events

  • He's a head to head pickem against the guy directly above him in price that will have half the ownership

  • He loses strokes against his baseline the last 50 rounds on difficult to hit fairway courses

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on par 71 courses

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on slow to average green speed greens

  • On difficult courses the last 50 rounds his strokes gained off the tee drops from 6th in the field to 40th in the field

  • Over the last 50 rounds he's 74th in the field in good drives gained

  • Lag putting is very important for links golf, this guy is 70th in the field in 3 putt avoidance

  • He's +160 for a top 20 finish. So the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 20 are 61.5%

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at  15.3%, Hideki Matsuyama, you're the Chalk Bomb!

If you're playing PGA or NFL DFS, FanShare is a MUST!Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained total leaders from the last 5 UK British Opens presented by her Majesty:

1. McIIroy 2. Spieth 3. Stenson 4. Garcia 5. Mickelson 6. ZJ 7. Scott 8. Leishman 9. Rose 10. Fowler

2. 

Historical

 

GIR Leaders the last 52 weeks taking field strength into account: 

1. Stenson 2. DJ 3. Woods 4. Fleetwood 5. Rahm 6. Cantlay 7. McIIroy 8. Scott 9. Luiten 10. Rose

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent/poa that are also in the top 100 in ball striking:

1. McDowell 2. Simpson 3. Lowry 4. Rose 5. Wallace 6. Spieth 7. Na 8. Hadwin 9. RCB 10. Sullivan

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ difficult to hit fairways, firm greens, and windy conditions...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1.McIIroy 2. DJ 3. Phil 4. Watson 5. Day 6. Leishman 7. Rose 8. Woodland 9. Scott 10. Kuchar ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on difficult to hit fairways courses w/ windy conditions your top 10 are:

1. McIIroy 2. DJ 3. Casey 4. Scott 5. Stenson 6. JT 7. Hoffman 8. Rose 9. Watson 10. Woodland

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Day 2. Furyk 3. Conners 4. Scott 5. Casey 6. Streelman 7. Stenson 8. Woodland 9. Koepka 10. Neimann

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's rated as the highest in importance at the Opens, so your top 10 in par 4 scoring average are:

1. DJ 2. Tiger 3. McIIroy 4. Rose 5. JT 6. Fowler 7. Matsuyama 8. Cantlay 9. Simpson 10. Rahm

8.

In counting up the projected approach shot yardage buckets that are going to be the most used this week, I have a dead heat between 150-175, 175-200, & 200+ so your top 10 weighting each 33% are:

1. Reavie 2. McIIroy 3. Matsuyama 4. Woods 5. Cantlay 6. Koepka 7. Kokrak 8. Stenson 9. Benny An 10. Luiten

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. DJ 2. Matsuyama 3. Woodland 4. Reed 5. McIIroy 6. Hadwin 7. Koepka 8. Cantlay 9. Holmes 10. Scott

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Spieth 2. Mickelson 3. Oosthuizen 4. Reed 5. Garcia 6. Molinari 7. Finau 8. Lashley 9. Fowler 10. Reavie/Hatton

11.

The superintendent of Royal Portrush said

the greens will be rolling at a 'max' of 10.5 on the stimpmeter come Thursday likely falling between 9-10

12.

Royal Portrush

has the fewest bunkers of any course in the rota at 62, two other courses in the rota have over 200!

13.

Notable finishes from the 2012 Irish Open played at RP:

RCB (2nd), Harrington (7th), Waring (10th), Molinari (10th), McIIroy (10th), McDowell (16th), Olesen (18th)....the winning score was -18

14.

According to the 15th Club:

There are only 4 players in the field that increase their play OVER half a stroke on links-style courses: Ryan Fox, Eddie Pepperell, Tyrrell Hatton, & Tommy Fleetwood

15.

Bottom 10 in total strokes gained at the Open last 5 years (that you care about, min 2 appearances):

1. Wiesberger 2. Luiten 3. Aphibarnrat 4. Horschel 5. Cam Smith 6. Streelman 7. CH3 8. DeChambeau 9. Fitzpatrick 10. Snedeker

16.

 Top 10 on the Euro tour in strokes gained tee to green in 2019:

1. Garcia 2. Rahm 3. Luiten 4. Grace 5. Janewattananond 6. Lowry 7. Suri 8. Fleetwood 9. Westwood 10. Pieters

17. Top 10 in recent form on both the Euro AND PGA tours:

1. Rahm 2. McIIroy 3. Wiesberger 4. Stenson 5. Lorenzo-Vera 6. Scott 7. Kuchar 8. RCB 9. Schauffele 10. Rose

18. Top 10 in GIR hit % the last 6 weeks across both tours:

1. Conners (if this guy could putt he would be winning every event) 2. Scott 3. Grace (also surprising) 4. Pavan 5. Waring 6. Stenson 7. Day 8. Streelman 9. Casey 10. Arnaus

19. My 10 favorite guys that are sub 7.1k & will be sub 5% owned:

1. Van Rooyen 2. Lorenzo-Vera 3. Sullivan 4. Campillo 5. Waring 6. Arnaus 7. Bezuidenhout 8. Pavan 9. Conners 10. Luiten

20. The tournament winners from the last 2 calendar years where the wind has been over 20 mph on average at the start of the tee times (& that winner is playing in the Open)

:  Rahm, McDowell, McIIroy,Harding, Holmes, Pepperell, Bjerregaard, Wallace, Waring, Noren, Brooks, Casey, JT, JT, Sergio, Hatton, Dunne, Spieth, Rafa

21. If we sort the data to 'average total strokes gained' in windy conditions, your top 10 are:

1. DJ 2. McIIroy 3. Day 4. DeChambeau 5. Simpson 6. Fleetwood 7. Rahm 8. Fowler 9. JT 10. Cantlay

PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

"In case you didn't notice, I was completely (almost) sober on the podcast & DB was orbiting Planet Tito's like a rocket ship. Probably means I'll have my best week ever."-Patrick P. Perry

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