The Open Chalb Bomb 2023

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BIG TIME WEATHER WEEK! Things look pretty even at this point throughout the waves. You could start to see a path for the PM/AM wave to have a small advantage. But, we will have final thoughts tonight!For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET tonight for our final take on the weather.Latest windfinder forecast

Brooks Koepka -130 ($10,400) vs. Cam Smith +109 ($10,700)

Our first big flip in terms of matchup pricing vs. DFS pricing can be found here as Koepka has been bet up to favorite in this head to head matchup at the sharpest books.Brooks opened up as the underdog at +100 and Cam was -120 before taking in steady action across a number of books in this one. He's been the best player across the Major Championships thus far this season so it should be no real surprise.The tricky aspect here is going to be the ownership as it appears like Cam Smith will be the only player priced above 10k that is going to come in under 10% owned for the week. Not to mention, we all know he really wants that Claret Jug back in his hands! 

Matt Fitzpatrick -110 ($9,500) vs. Shane Lowry -110 ($9,100)

We are highlighted this matchup as it is one of the mid range selections where we have seen the most line movement at the sharpest books over the past couple days. Lowry actually opened up as a -131 favorite in this head to head matchup.Fitzpatrick has certainly been struggling a bit with the form and consistency we had grown accustomed me. Lowry is coming off a 12th place finish last week at the Scottish Open while Fitzy missed the cut.The latest Nut Hut ownership projections in the research center show Fitz as the LEAST owned player in the entire slate priced above $9,000 which could be lucrative is you are inclined to trust the sharp bettors and have a leg up on contest ownership.

Phil Mickelson +133 ($6,900) vs. Richard Bland -161 ($6000)

Wow! Massive difference here in head to head matchup pricing and the DFS salaries. Interestingly, the handicappers originally felt this to be an even matchup, actually opening Phil as a slight -113 favorite.A tidal wave of action has since come to the ticket counters and it's all on DICK BLAND! That said, Phil has always had an affinity for the Open Championship and links golf throughout his career and has popped up on occasion this season, notably at the Masters.Both players are projected around 1% ownership in the latest reports. If you trust the sharp bettors and enjoy a good DFS discount, Bland appears to be a nice option this week! Best of luck!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Back to Back Chalk Bombs picks who both missed the cut! We are coming into this week scorching hot as Patrick Cantlay imploded last week and missed the cut. This week of course we have another stern links test on our hands with variable weather conditions that can change quickly and cause confusion for players not willing to adjust and adapt to the task at hand. Let's see if we can find us another high owned candidate that will blow up lineups!The first thing I am looking for, particularly in Major Championships, is a player who is coming into the event with inflated perception and potentially too much hype. What is the name you are going to hear about on every podcast, written by every tout, and more importantly discussed in great length by the casual DFS players who come rushing in during the summer that have nothing else going on in other major sports? Show me extremely high expectations and I will show you a potential chalk bomb candidate.In my opinion, this Major Championship and this golf course specifically is going to reward a different skill than we have seen in the previous 3 Majors. At Augusta National, Oak Hill, and LACC, you could basically bomb it OTT without the genuine risk of penalty for a big miss. Oak Hill had the deep rough, but not much genuine trouble that would cause big numbers on the scorecard. Royal Liverpool has narrow fairways, and even narrower boundaries that pinch in closely on many holes that will play as OB. The knee high fescue should you avoid the OB stakes is no bargain either.I'm paying close attention to total driving and distance from edge of fairway off the tee. While the player I have selected in undoubtedly one of the more powerful players in the entire field, when he misses, it's big. His average distance from fairway on the 2023 PGA Tour Season is 27 ft, which ranks 78th on Tour. This player is also only hitting 54% of fairways on the season, ranking 157th on the PGA Tour. Of the 616 possible fairways they could have hit this season, the ball has found the short grass on ONLY 333 of them. On many courses, this isn't a huge problem given their leg up in distance, but this week is different in my opinion.When this player gets it going wayward with the Driver, they are not particularly adept at scrambling with a good rate of success from there. This player ranks outside the top 100 players on the PGA Tour in scrambling percentage for the season. Lastly, the putter is something I would not classify as a strength of this player as well, certainly over the last 3 months. Barely a positive over both the short term and long term lead me to have little trust in the flat stick carrying them if they are scrambling for par in many circumstances, which I think this course is going to require for their skill set.I clearly don't love the course fit with the current setup of their game. That said, I'd be foolish to ignore how this player was indeed able to have success when the previous Open was held here in 2014. My argument would be we are now dealing with a different player. He's lost some of his accuracy with the Driver over the years, and he happened to hit it exceptionally well that particular week in 2014. Sure, if they are going to rank inside the top 20 in driving accuracy for the week like they did in 2014, that's going to be a phenomenal result, but I haven't seen anything with their current form that would indicate that is on the horizon or even a priority for this player any longer.The final anecdotal piece of the equation when clicking a player that you know is going to be very highly owned, is do you believe they can handle the pressure that comes with a Major Championship. Personal opinions aside, the numbers and data would indicate that this player is clearly dealing with a hurdle in this department and a monkey that continues to grow and get heavier with each passing opportunity. Do you trust a player that has a history of mishandling expectations in big events? A player that last year couldn't buy a putt or hit a wedge close when it mattered. A player that had the world in his hands a few years back at Portrush with every walking pulse in attendance cheering him on, only to miss the cut. A player who was finally able to conquer Augusta National and was as prepared as ever this year...until he wasn't.Ofcourse, by now, you know who I am talking about. It's potentially the riskiest chalk bomb of the year, but also potentially the one that makes almost too much sense. There are numerous takes and stances you can have to support this player for The Open, but I am choosing to not overlook what history has shown us and I am willing to step in front of the freight train this week as he will be the highest owned player in nearly every single DFS contest. Projected at over 20% ownership in DFS and the second highest priced salary on the board, Rory McIlroy, it pains me to inform you the you and your large nips are the chalk bomb!

Inflation Sucks. Unless you like gum from a gumbball machine. Then it’s still just 25 cents. I don’t understand why everyone likes their windows down in airplanes now. It’s not like you’ve seen all that can be seen. Live a little. Dora the Explorer should NOT get credit as an actual explorer. She uses a damn map. That’s cheating in Explorer world if you ask me. I wonder how much mold was eaten before people finally figured out cheese. I don’t understand why Lions are the king of the Jungle. They don’t really reside there. Being constantly late is technically ideal because you never have to wait for anyone. Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy The Open Championship. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!