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I can't stress this next sentence enough.

KEEP CHECKING THE WEATHER up until lineup lock as best you can with lock occurring at 1:35amET.

It could change quickly. It's not likely, but it could happen. It's Scotland. We'll be talking a lot about the weather in the Nut Hut Live Chat tonight at 9pmET. As of Wednesday around 5pmET, here's the current wind situation at The Old Course. The best time to be on the golf course over the next 2 days is as early as possible tomorrow and as late as possible on Friday. Keep in mind, there isn't a real break in the tee time waves this week like on a normal PGA TOUR week. The times go consistently from 6:35am to 4:16pm local time in 11 minute increments. With that, the waves aren't as cut and dry as normal weeks. Some guys going off very early on Thursday are still going off just before noon on Friday. So check the times for both days on each player.For now, we would recommend stacking both waves with more weight to the AM/PM wave. Of course, you should also have a percentage of lineups where it's mixed since there's not a super strong advantage to either side.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed tonight in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE!

This line surprised me. I like both players in DFS and Betting and just in general. But, I'm shocked Lowry is seen as this much better than Cam Smith. Now, the line has shifted somewhat in Cam's direction as Lowry opened a -160 favorite, but Lowry's also a slight favorite against JT and a coin toss against Scottie Scheffler! But then, in another market making book, Lowry's been bet to a heavier favorite against both JT and Scottie.

Finally, between these 2 books, one has him a slight dog to Fitzpatrick and the other has him a -121 favorite. All of this to say...the books and the H2H bettors seem to REEEEALLLYYY like Lowry.

Now, he's not exactly going under the radar in DFS either as he's projected around 15-18% at the $9,300 price tag. I do wonder though if he actually cracks 15% in most contests given most people are wanting to load up on Xander, Fitz, Spieth and probably Cam Smith. At any rate, this certainly makes consider eating the Lowry chalk (if it turns out to be chalk).

D. Johnson -150 vs. Burns +120

The books and H2H bettors are in LOVE with DJ this week, and I'm wondering if I'm missing something. Now, DJ's getting a little chatter in the DFS streets and he's projected around 10% for now at a $9,200 price tag. Here are the other H2H lines involving DJ:

-140 VS Hatton +110

-151 VS Koepka +120

-138 VS Morikawa +108

-112 VS Fleetwood -118

None of those lines, except against Fleetwood, are seeing money come in AGAINST DJ. The Fleetwood line is very interesting as it's flipped twice on one book as Tommy Lad remains a slight favorite. Fleetwood is expected to be chalk at around 16-18%, but the rest of the DJ H2H opponents are all expected to be around 10% or less. 

DJ's Open record is pretty solid. It's not incredible, but it's very solid. He's finished 3rd and 8th at his LIV events, and you'd like to think that even DJ gives a shit about winning the 150th Open at The Old Course (even if he gives zero F's any other week of the year). 

I'd be tempted to take the plus money on names like Burns or even Morikawa against DJ, but I certainly find him very much in play as a high upside pivot in DFS.

Conners -144 vs. Scott +118

I've really warmed to Corey Conners today as a solid upside GPP pivot and wanted to find an opportunity to document my affection. Conners comes in at $8,200 and projected to be about 7% owned. He's sandwiched between popular plays like Finau and Niemann and Homa. 

He's also a considerable favorite over Gooch and Bradley. The lines are also either staying the same or moving Conners direction against Scott, Gooch and Bradley. 

Conners had a pretty average Scottish Open last week across the Strokes Gained board on his way to a T61. His major record is really good at Augusta National and pretty bad everywhere else with the exception of a T17 at last year's PGA Champ and last year's T15 at The Open. His ball striking is just so solid, but the putter (which has always been his problem) has been improving.

His short game scares me of course, but his ball striking keeps his floor high. If the putter and short game pop...then he's truly got winning upside when you combine that with his ball striking. 

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

The Chalk Bomb heater continues as Rahm finishes T55 at The Scottish at 22% ownership. Let's keep it moving this week for The Open. It's yet another challenge this week as most of the best names are getting the appropriate amount of love and nobody in the field is standing out to me as a ludicrous play at high ownership.I'm going away from my gut by picking a cheaper player here, but I'm going to roll with it. Picking a lower priced player becomes risky as they just don't have to do as much in terms of DFS scoring in order to return value. The guy for me this week is Max Homa. Max is only $7.9K, and that's likely the reason for his chalk as he feels grossly underpriced given his play this year. Max has really turned a corner, and I'm extremely bullish on his future. He's got the form, he checks the boxes from a stat model standpoint, he played well last week at The Scottish, and he just locked up another win in May.Let me tell you what's working against him...He's playing with Tiger the first two days, and he's giddy about it, according to his Twitter. Playing in Tiger's group at The Old Course at the 150th Open Champ is no easy task for a guy who grew up idolizing the Goat. Plus, he's teeing off late on Thursday around 3pm and early Friday, so if the weather holds, he'll have a slightly tougher wind draw to contend with.Max's major championship record isn't great either, despite his tremendous PGA TOUR regular tour event play. He finished 40th in his only Open Championship last year. he's got 3 MC's and a T47 at US Opens, 2 MC's and a T48 at The Masters, and 2 MC's a T64, and a T13 at this years PGA Championship. So in 12 majors, he's got a T13 and nothing else inside the top 35.Finally, take a look at his H2H odds at the major market making books:+104 VS Hideki -131+108 VS Finau -130+103 VS Niemann -130+117 VS Hatton -142Obviously, all of those guys are priced higher than Homa at DK, but it's still not a ringing endorsement for the high owned, Max. At +17% (top 8 highest) projected ownership, John Maxwell Homa,you are the Chalk Bomb! 

It's interesting to me that even people who hate bugs will still actually touch the pretty looking bugs. If I'm ever throwing a rock into a lake I often think about how I'm probably the last person that will ever actually touch that rock.  I mean, we are so f’ed up in terms of how we view time off in the American business world. Europeans take a month off and it’s encouraged. In the states if you take a day and a half off everyone flips out.It drives me nuts when someone texts me to please call them. Just f'in text me whatever you want to know. Or call me. But don’t text me to call you.I am really glad that my calculator doesn't have an input history like we do with internet browsing history. I don’t like when people say…”well the long and the short of it is." Just give me what it is. I don’t need to know the dimensions of what you’re about to say.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy The 150th Open Championship on the Old Course at the home of golf in St. Andrew's this week. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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