OHL Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

OHL AT MAYAKOBA

I honestly don't know why any touring professional would skip this event...it's starting to get cold and nasty across most of the US, you get to avoid all the BS that comes with election day/week, your right on a beautiful beach in a cool Mexican resort, worst case scenario is you miss the cut and get to spend the rest of your weekend drinking daiquiri's and lounging around at the pool or beach! This week is interestingly one of the strongest course fits we see all year. It's a no doubt accuracy course, and because it plays fairly easy you have to pound the greens here to have any shot. BUT, even though it plays on the easier side, bogey avoidance actually tested fairly well which I would assume goes hand in hand with the heavy accuracy rating. And just to be clear, just because it's an accuracy course doesn't mean 100% fade the bombers, distance always matters, just to varying degrees. All it means is that you bump up the shorter, more accurate guys, leh go!

Head to Head Matchups & Information

Comparing H2H matchups is absolutely critical when trying to understand value between players. Essentially, we look at the H2H matchups posted on MyBookie to see where the books disagree with the DFS pricing in order to find value. Most of the time there are clear differences of opinion that we can take advantage of when it comes to pricing and value. It usually ends up being a great clue as to where the sharp money is landing & what the books are expecting. Let's dig in!

I don't think it's really a surprise that Finau is a favorite over Spieth, but at this particular course I do find it interesting. Tony is one of the least accurate players in the field off the tee, and if you go back and look through his schedule the last 2 years, he's generally avoided courses like El Camaleon and the last time he played here, he missed the cut. I also want to be more bullish on Spieth this week but he only hit 48% of his fariways last week in route to a 55th place finish.This price really surprised me when I first saw it. Si Woo is tailor made for these accuracy/gir courses as almost 100% of his best finishes have come on similar layouts, not to mention he has good course history here as well. Since the wraparound season began Billy has definitely cooled off from his crazy hot run of 3 straight top 3 finishes....he's still hitting a ton of greens, but has seen his driving accuracy really slip the last 3 events. Billy has middling course history as he's only played here once since 2012, and that start resulted in an MC. One last note on Si Woo, his 15th place finish last week is quite deceiving when you break down his stats from last week. He lost 4 strokes T2G last week but gained almost TEN strokes putting....the most ever in his entire career!Two of my favorite plays this week, and will most likely be a lot of other peoples favorite plays as well. Lets start with Ancer....this kid is going to win on the PGA tour, it's just a matter of time. He's elite off the tee AND gains strokes putting....it's a very similar profile to what Brooks Koepka had a couple years ago. He's certainly volatile, but he's almost always low owned and in his last 11 starts he has 5 top 10 finishes. In the case of Moore, these kinds of courses were made for him. He's the 7th most accurate player in the field off the tee, finished 6th here last year, it just all boils down to the putter with him. Since the start of 2017, he's gained more than 2.4 strokes putting TWICE....in two years!Another set of really great course fit guys. Chez and CT also both rank in the top 10 in the field in driving accuracy. Chez is the head to head favorite, as well as being $400 more expensive than CT, BUT, he currently projects to have about half the ownership of CT. Lil Wayne once said, 'I like my house big and my grass soft,' well I like my Chez on accuracy courses with soft grass and low ownership. For someone that is projected to be as popular as JJ Spaun this week, I was extremely surprised to see that he's only a -125 favorite over house hold name Denny McCarthy. Denny is almost guaranteed to be less than 2% owned while our boy JJ will most likely be one of the most popular players on the board.

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THE Chalk Bomb

Stats about our boy this week: (I went back and forth on about 5 guys this week, so I just went with the projected highest owned guy)-in his last 9 events, these are his total strokes gained: (-3.8), 3.8, (-1.5), (-3.7), (-3.5), 2.4, (-10.4), 5.8, 5.9 #Consistency-over his last 5 strokes gained events he has lost -0.3 strokes off the tee-over the last calendar year he's lost strokes putting in 12 of 21 events-over the last calendar year he's lost strokes around the green in 18 of 21 events-he finished in the top 9 once in 2018-this week is his second highest price tag of 2018-this week is he projected to basically double his previous high ownership for the season-he's generally accurate off the tee, but in 3 of his last 4 events he's hit less than 58% of his fairways-he's a very short head to head favorite over a fairly poor golferOur friends over at FanShareSports.com have our guy projected at 26.4% owned, highest in the field! JJ Spaun, your the chalk bomb! 

Just Sip on these 10 Facts

1.  Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last week that are playing this week: 1. Ryder 2. Neimann 3. Streb 4. Im 5. Vegas 6. Spaun 7. Piercy 8. Kodaira 9. Fowler 10. Woodland2. This is a no doubt accuracy course, your top driving accuracy guys are: 1. Armour 2. Chez 3. Furyk 4. Hickok 5. Moore 6. Stuard 7. Gay 8. Grillo 9. CT Pan 10. Fraustro3. Your bottom 10 driving accuracy guys are: 1. Schniederjans 2. Xiong 3. Bryan 4. Power 5. List 6. Kizzire 7. Finau 8. Streb 9. Burns 10. Holmes4. The greens have historically been very easy to hit here, the guys that gain more strokes relative to their baseline on easy greens are: 1. Ryder 2. Kizzire 3. HV3 4. Spaun 5. Wise 6. Woodland 7. Hossler 8. Mitchell 9. Fraustro 10. Henley5. On that same note, your top 10 in GIR's hit at El Camaleon: 1. Duncan 2. Kirk 3. Woodland 4. Grillo 5. Burgoon 6. Moore 7. Bae 8. CT Pan 9. Armour 10. CH3 6. Top 10 in course driving accuracy at El Camaleon: 1. Stuard 2. Si Woo 3. Moore 4. Kirk 5. Streb 6. Herman 7. Woodland 8. Ancer 9. Chez 10. Poston7. Since we only get total strokes gained data 3 out of the last 4 events we can't really break it down past that, but your top 10 the last 12 rounds of total strokes gained are: 1. Woodland 2. Champ 3. Finau 4. Ryder 5. Fowler 6. Holmes 7. Si Woo 8. Piercy 9. Hass? 10. Grillo8. Top 10 Paspalum/Bermuda putters: 1. Kisner 2. Gay 3. McDowell 4. McCarthy 5. Whee Kim 6. Fowler 7. Perez 8. Ollie 9. Burns 10. Power9. If I make a custom model that only includes short courses with slow greens, the total strokes gained leaders are: 1. Piercy 2. CH3 3. Woodland 4. Kirk 5. McDowell 6. Si Woo 6. Garnett 7. Reavie 8. Fowler 9. Grillo 10. Huh10. My custom course history model top 10: 1. Moore 2. Lee 3. Fowler 4. Woodland 5. Streelman 6. Si Woo 7. Chez 8. Rodgers 9. CH3 10. Fraustro

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