Northern Trust Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

Northern Trust Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

August 07, 2019

 This Week's Tour Stop Northern Trust @ Liberty National 

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Playoffs!

A really underrated (& arguably) the best part of the playoffs actually happened last week at the Wyndham. Some of you know this, but I'm betting a lot of casual fans don't know that if you finish outside the top 125 in the Fedex points, aka your not playing this week, then you lose your fully exempt PGA tour card. It's admittedly tricky trying to figure out who has their card on the line & who doesn't, but it's one of the greatest sweats in all sports that just doesn't get the attention it deserves. Some fairly popular names lost their cards on Sunday, such as: Alex Noren, Austin Cook, Daniel Berger, Bill Haas, Beau Hossler, Harris English, Brendan Steele, Sam Saunders, Ollie Schniederjans, Hunter Mahan, Morgan Hoffman, the list just goes on & on. Now you can still get limited status if you don't finish in the top 125, or you can play your way back to your card with a hot 3 week stretch in the Korn Ferry Tour finals. A couple guys that played just good enough to get a PGA Tour card last week: Munoz, Kraft, Blixt, Laird, Taylor, Gay, Jones, Malnati, Ortiz, Baddeley, Straka, Brown, Armour, Knox, Stallings, & Ryder. The pressure for these guys last week was just incredible....imagine if your an accountant or something like that, & if you get just 2 things wrong on a 300 page tax return, then you lose your job, have to go back to college, and re-pass the CPA exam #PlayingGolfForALivingIsHard. 

Anyways about the course this week: I've played Liberty National a ton of times (in EA Sports Tiger Woods) so I'm pretty much an expert. However just to double check my math I went back & looked at what Fantasy National & DataGolf had to say about it & this is what we can conclude: 1. The fairways are easy to hit 2. The rough is very short & not penal 3. It's a boardline less than driver course 4. The 200+ yard approach shot is far & away the most popular approach distance 5. Bent grass greens 6. In the 2013 version of the course ball striking made up for 55% of the variation in scoring which is about 6% greater than the average PGA event 7. Par 72 8. Wind can & should play a factor w/ the afternoon waves getting some gusts up to 20 mph 9. You gotta get the par 5's 10. The greens are fast

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Scott vs. Spieth 

For literally the 1st time all season, Jordan Spieth's price tag is finally moving in a logical direction. I would absolutely still argue in this field he's over priced at 8k, but hey you never know if you just gain 10 strokes in the short game. I followed him around last week at the Wyndham for half his round on Friday just to see with my own eyes what exactly is going on. On almost every hole he was doing 1 of 3 things: 1. Playing from the rough/trees/wrong side of the fairway 2. When he hit the fairway or was on the correct side he missed the green (& usually not close) 3. When he missed the green he was scrambling big time to save par. On the lone par 5 I watched him on he drove his ball onto a bad side slope in the rough, duck hooks his 2nd into a fairway bunker 75 yards from the green, hits his 3rd into the bunker right in front of the bunker he just hit out of, sticks the 2nd bunker shot to 2 feet, makes par...that was basically the round in 1 hole. Anyways! I'm surprised that Scott isn't the chalk of the week with an attractive price tag, & as you'll see he's in the 10 facts A LOT. Just like Sabbatini last week (T-6) Scott is my favorite value on the board. 

MATCHUP 2

Rose vs. Thomas

Clear DFS value as Rose is $400 cheaper than JT but the -125 favorite in head to head markets. They're really the same player in my mind & statistically they aren't much different either. In fact the last time both of them played (St. Jude) their strokes gained data was almost identical (though Rose hit 17% more greens in reg). Over the last 4 months Rose has been the better player off the tee & putting (he's gained strokes putting in 7 straight events), where JT has been the better player on approach shots & slightly better around the greens. I think the books are giving Rose the edge here from his course history (lead the field in strokes gained tee to green at the 2013 Northern Trust) & both times he's played in the event at Liberty National he's hit 73% of his fairways (while that was what held JT back at the St. Jude hitting only 51.8%). 

MATCHUP 3

Cantlay vs. Fowler

The books are again showing you some DFS value with Cantlay $100 cheaper than Rickie this week but I like both for different reasons. Cantlay's price this week is very attractive which will make him extremely popular in GPP's. He has better top 10 odds than all 5 of the guys priced directly ahead of him on DK, BUT I much prefer Rickie in GPP's & Cantlay in cash. Rickie has been extremely violate all season and his average ownership the last 4 events hasn't topped 11.6%, which is exactly what we're looking for. Rickie is #1 in the field strokes gained putting on bent grass,  #4 in the field in the main approach shot buckets, has gained strokes off the tee in 9 straight events, AND was 10th in the field in strokes gained tee to green at the 2013 playing of this event. Now again I don't dislike Cantlay, and greatly prefer him to Rickie in cash, I just don't like his heavy projected ownership. 

MATCHUP 4

Day vs. DeChambeau

More DFS value with Day being the -130 favorite over Bryson despite being $400 cheaper this week. Just when you thought Bryson had turned it around he has his 2 worst tee to green events of the entire season at the Open & St. Jude. He lost over 5 strokes on approach shots which was the main catalyst to his big run in the playoffs last year. While Day hasn't been a ton better he has had some sneaky GIR's gained stats, and has actually lost strokes putting in 3 straight events, something he's only done once in his entire career. 

Other interesting lines:

Leishman -125 over Sabbatini

Horschel -115 over Oosthuizen

Finau pick em Kuchar

Rahm -130 over Rose

Morikawa -130 over Matsuyama

Rory -120 over Brooks

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy this week: 

  • His strokes gained tee to green the last 3 events have gone from 11.2, to 7.7, to 3.1

  • He lost strokes off the tee in his last event & only hit 51.8% of his fairways

  • He gained strokes on approach shots at his last event despite hitting less greens in reg than the field average

  • He's a head to head underdog in both of his matchups, one of which is against someone $400 cheaper than him

  • In the two main approach shot buckets he has the worst proximity ranking the last 50 rounds of any player $9200 & up

  • Even when you change it to the last 24 rounds (where he's played better) his proximity ranking in the two main buckets actually drops from 56th to 73rd in the field

  • He has a negative bent grass putting split

  • As the course difficulty goes up he loses strokes against his baseline

  • As the wind mph increases he loses strokes against his baseline (expected to have sustained winds of 9-12 mph Fri/Sat w/ gusts up to 22)

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on easy to hit fairway courses

  • He loses strokes against his baseline on par 72 courses

  • Of all the players $8700 & up (15 guys), this guy ranks the worst in bogey avoidance the last 50 rounds

  • Despite being 3rd in the field in strokes gained approach the last 12 rounds, he's 67th in GIR's gained

  • His top 10 implied odds are 30.3%....so 69.7% of the time he is expected to finish outside the top 10

  • He's projected to be the highest owned player this week, & once we get into these limited field events you have to take bold stands!

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at  25.3%, Justin Thomas, you're the Chalk Bomb!

If you're playing PGA or NFL DFS, FanShare is a MUST!Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from the last NT @ Liberty National:

1. Rose 2. Scott 3. Kokrak 4. Day 5. Watson 6. Sabbatini 7. Woods 8. Spieth 9. Woodland 10. Fowler

2. 

Historical

 

GIR Leaders the last 2 times we played Liberty National (min 6 rounds): 

1. Scott 2. Rose 3. Woodland 4. Woods 5. Mickelson 6. Furyk 7. Watney 8. Kokrak 9. Fowler 10. Watson

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

 1. Fowler 2. Snedeker 3. McCarthy 4. Rodgers 5. Day 6. Grillo 7. Simpson 8. Spieth 9. Clark 10. Leishman

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ easy to hit fairway courses, bent greens, and between 7200-7400 yards...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1.Rose 2. Scott 3. Cantlay 4. DeChambeau 5. Kuchar 6. Spieth 7. DJ 8. Bradley 9. Matsuyama 10. Molinari

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy to hit fairway courses with moderate wind & between 7200-7400 yards your top 10 are:

1. Scott 2. Matsuyama 3. Rose 4. Watson 5. Bradley 6. Stanley 7. Cantlay 8. Woods 9. Horschel 10. Ryder

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1.Scott 2. Day 3. Morikawa 4. Laird 5. Conners 6. Na 7. Streelman 8. Taylor 9. Tringale 10. Poston

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's rated as the highest in importance at Liberty National, so your top 10 in par 5 scoring average are:

1. JT 2. Fleetwood 3. Woodland 4. McIIroy 5. Im 6. Rose 7. Watson 8. Woods 9. Wolff 10. Poulter

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 175-200 and 200+, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Woods 2. Reavie 3. McIIroy 4. Fowler 5. Koepka 6. Knox 7. Stuard 8. Matsuyama 9. Simpson 10. Glover

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Morikawa 2. Niemann 3. Sloan 4. Scott 5. Vegas 6. HV3 7. Rose 8. DJ 9. Palmer 10. Sabbatini

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Day 2. Cantlay 3. Rose 4. Scott 5. Oosthuizen 6. Leishman 7. Spieth 8. Woods 9. Schauffele 10. Morikawa

PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

-Patrick P. Perry

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