Playoffs???

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

A really underrated (& arguably) the best part of the playoffs actually happened last week at the Wyndham. Some of you know this, but I'm betting a lot of casual fans don't know that if you finish outside the top 125 in the Fedex points, aka your not playing this week, then you lose your fully exempt PGA tour card. It's admittedly tricky trying to figure out who has their card on the line & who doesn't, but it's one of the greatest sweats in all sports that just doesn't get the attention it deserves. One of the best stories ALL YEAR was Chesson Hadley, who entered the week 132nd in the standings. To climb up 7 spots he was going to have to play his you know what off AND have lady luck on his side. Well, let's just say Hollywood would have a hard time coming up with a better script. On his opening 9, he shot a cool 29! that happened to include his FIRST EVER hole in one. He went on to finish out at 8 under 62 but was STILL on the outside looking in at 126. This is where Justin Rose comes in. Rose was projected at 115th through 17 on Sunday, but he missed a 5 footer for par on 18 to 3 putt and drop him to 126th, pushing Chesson up to 125. Like I said, you literally couldn't make this up. Hadley went on to give a really great (& emotional) post-round interview, go watch it if you haven't already. Rose (126th) is among the big names who didn’t qualify for the Playoffs, but he didn’t have to worry about keeping a card. He’s good through 2023-24 due to a WGC win. Rickie Fowler (134th) is safe through 2022-23 via his Players win, Francesco Molinari (142nd) is still good through 2024-25 due to his Open Championship victory, and Jimmy Walker (166th) is good for next season with his PGA victory at Baltusrol. But a couple of other interesting names are no longer exempt on the PGA Tour: Patrick Rodgers (who was in but played his way out), Ole Tommy Lad...despite making 14/18 cuts, Ryan Moore (who is 35th all-time on the money list), Duf Daddy who's PGA major & 2017 Memorial exemptions just ran dry, and one of our favorite Twitter follows Benny An just couldn't get it together this year. Anyways about the course this week: I've played Liberty National a ton of times (in EA Sports Tiger Woods) so I'm pretty much an expert. However just to double-check my math I went back & looked at what Fantasy National & DataGolf had to say about it & this is what we can conclude: 1. The fairways are easy to hit 2. The rough is very short & not penal 3. It's a borderline less than driver course 4. The 200+ yard approach shot is far & away the most popular approach distance 5. Bentgrass greens 6. In the 2013 & 2019 versions of the course, ball-striking made up for 60% of the variation in scoring which is about 10% greater than the average PGA event 7. Par 71 8. Wind can & should play a factor w/ the morning waves getting some gusts up to 23 mph 9. You gotta get the par 5's 10. The greens are fast

The weather looks ok....windy in the afternoon on Thursday but dying off as the day goes on. Friday looks perfect with a slight chance of rain. 

(Image courtesy of DataGolf) Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. Very interesting fit this week. Driving accuracy is the only metric that is less predictive here than at your average PGA Tour course. Approach & putting both seem to be quite a bit more predictive.  

Leh Go! 

MATCHUP 1

DeChambeau vs. Koepka 

DeChambeau -145 vs. Koepka +124

Massive, massive value swing from the WGC. Brooks was favored over almost everyone sans Morikawa, and now he finds himself a decent underdog to his arch-enemy despite being $600 more expensive on DK. Heading into the WGC Brooks had reeled off 4 top 6 finishes in his last 5 events, he has one bad week at Memphis & now everyone is off him. I think that's a big overreaction & a big mistake. Liberty National is tailormade for Brooks's strengths. Driving distance is a plus, approach play is a big plus, and it demands great putting. The last 2 times he's come off a missed cut (yes, I know the WGC is a no-cut event but finishing 54th is basically a missed cut) he finished 2nd, & 4th. Bryson also sees a massive swing in betting market prices in the opposite direction. At the WGC he had his best approach week since his 3rd place at the Players and had his 2nd most total strokes gained since the Wells Fargo back at the beginning of May. Bryson's approach play is generally what is going to make or break his week, & the sportsbooks see big DFS value on him. 

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MATCHUP 2

Morikawa vs. McIIroy

 Morikawa -125 vs. McIIroy +107

Rory has also seen a huge bump in his sportsbook lines this week from the WGC. In Memphis, he EASILY had his best ball-striking week since the Wells Fargo in 2019! He gained almost 6 strokes off the tee, and 6.5 strokes on approach shots. That continued his really strong run of approach play gaining at LEAST 4.1 strokes in every event since this past Wells Fargo in May. Rory played well at Liberty National in 2019 finishing 6th, and if he can just break even in the short game, you have to like his chances this week. For Collin, I'm going to guess that the crazy travel & jet lag finally caught up to him in Memphis. It was the 1st time in exactly 1 year that he didn't gain strokes on approach shots. He lost 2 strokes putting that week as well, but he does move to his best surface in bentgrass this week. While I doubt that he's going to go *under-owned* this week, it's really not a great course fit with around the green & putting having higher elevated importance at Liberty National. 

MATCHUP 3

Cantlay vs. Scheffler

Cantlay -115 vs. Scheffler -101

DFS value once again with Cantlay being $100 cheaper than Scheffler yet the H2H favorite. If you read the 10 facts, Patrick's name popped up quite a bit. 5 times to be exact. Did you know that over his last 50 rounds, he's actually #1 in the field in % rounds gained putting on bentgrass? I didn't. He's #1 in the field in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds, 2nd only to Morkiawa in strokes gained T2G the last 3 months, and #4 in the field in par 4 scoring. Scottie has one of the most interesting Fantasy National player cards in the entire field. He's got 4 top 8 finishes in his last 7 events and has really had zero consistency in any one category (with maybe OTT being the exception). He's ranged from -1.1 to +5.6 on approach, he's ranged from -0.7 to +4.3 around the green, & he's ranged from -3 to +8.7 putting in that span. So the glass half full argument is that if just puts it all together in any given week he's going to drum the field, but if #BadScottie comes out he could also finish DFL. 

Other interesting lines:Na -129 vs. Si Woo -102Finau -134 vs. Burns +115Garcia -112 vs. Lowry -104Reed -120 vs. Scott +103DeChambeau -126 vs. Cantlay +108Morikawa -109 vs. Spieth -107McIIroy -116 vs. DJ -101Hoffman -112 vs. Bradley -104Casey -122 vs. English +105

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 3 straight events

• He's lost strokes on approach in 3 of his last 7 events

• He's lost strokes around the green in 4 of his last 8 events

• He's lost strokes putting in 4 of his last 7 events

• In 3 of his last 5 events, he's gained less than 2.2 strokes tee to green

• He'll be playing in the windiest conditions tomorrow

• He's a H2H underdog to 3 guys cheaper than him

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 78th in the field in opps gained

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 61st in the field in bogeys avoided

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 50th in the field in good drives gained

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 55th in the 2 main proximity buckets

• Over his last 50 rounds on bentgrass he's only gained strokes putting in 42% of rounds

• Over his last  50 rounds on bentgrass he's 98th in the field in strokes gained putting total

At 14.2% actual lineup generated % on Fantasy National (8th highest) Scottie Scheffler, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

My twin brother’s (DirecTV Perry) son had his 1st birthday party this past weekend and that got me thinking. It’s funny to me that it’s generally acceptable to gawk at babies and animals, but pretty much anything else would be just weird. 

DirecTV’s better half throws an excellent party by the way. Two things stood out. First, It was a Masters themed party so naturally alcohol was involved (drank responsibly of course). Big fan of alcohol at baby parties. Secondly, the older kids got goodie bags. Goodie bags are always a great idea. I don’t know why anyone doesn’t do adult goodie bags though. That would be something else. 

If you take (steal) hangars or towels from a hotel is that a crime? I mean, obviously I’m gonna grab a handful of shampoo and stuff but that’s different. The Towels and hangars are more permanent items found in the room. Anyway, I was just wondering. 

Kids are back to school this week thank the lord. To that end they’ll be meeting new classmates and teachers. It’s kind of BS though that your entire educational future can possibly center around whether or not your teacher likes you. 

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy The Northern Trust and a fantastic field. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!