The Chase For The Cup Begins

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A really underrated (& arguably) the best part of the playoffs actually happened last week at the Wyndham. Some of you know this, but I'm betting a lot of casual fans don't know that if you finish outside the top 125 in the Fedex points, aka your not playing this week, then you lose your fully exempt PGA tour card. It's admittedly tricky trying to figure out who has their card on the line & who doesn't, but it's one of the greatest sweats in all sports that just doesn't get the attention it deserves. Some fairly popular names lost their cards on Sunday, such as: Charl Schwartzel, RBC, Sergio Garcia, Matt Wallace, Jhonattan Vegas, JB Holmes (think he has his card for like 6 more months), Aaron Wise, Jason Dufner, Branden Grace, Patton Kizzire, Jimmy Walker, (& guys like Daniel Berger! Harris English! & Brendan Steele lost their's last year this way) the list just goes on & on. Now you can still get limited status if you don't finish in the top 125, or you can play your way back to your card with a hot 3 week stretch in the Korn Ferry Tour finals. A couple guys that played just good enough to get a PGA Tour card last week: Tom Lewis, Hossler, Sabbatini, Piercy, Garnett, Stallings, List, Glover, Brown, Blair, Henley, Spieth!, Oosthy, Armour, Zach Johnson etc. The pressure for these guys last week was just incredible....imagine if your an accountant or something like that, & if you get just 2 things wrong on a 300 page tax return, then you lose your job, have to go back to college, and re-pass the CPA exam #PlayingGolfForALivingIsHard

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. Pretty straight forward this week. While TPC Boston is on the long side, it's hard to classify it as a 'bomber' course. I think a more accurate description would be that it suits good total drivers of the golf ball, that are good with their long irons, and can scramble well. The most common approach shot is by far from 200+ yards, and at that length, even on the PGA Tour, your GIR% is only about 50%. The rough is always long here and the green generally run somewhere between fast to fast as shit. It's still top 65 & ties this week to play the weekend, so 6/6 lineups should be everywhere. Make sure you leave money on the table & watch those ownership projections! 

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MATCHUP 1

Matsuyama vs. Finau

Matsuyama -110 vs. Finau -110

Whenever I'm looking for good pivot plays these are the exact kind of lines I look for. Tony is expected to be in the top 3 owned this week, and probably rightfully so, but in H2H markets he's a pickem against someone who's $200 cheaper & projected to have less than half of his ownership, Hideki. Yes, he's played mediocre at best since the restart w/ a T-20 being his high watermark. And yes, he hasn't been his usual 'stripey' self losing strokes ball striking in 2 of his last 3 events. BUT he does have decent history at TPC Boston, has a positive putting split on bent, and was in the top 10 for both custom models we created in the 10 facts. For Tony, you probably don't need any talking into as he owns 3 top 8's in last 4 starts, has gained strokes off the tee in every single event since the restart, has gained strokes on approach shots in 4 of the last 5, AND has gained strokes putting in 4 straight. To boot, the last time the PGA tour was in Boston, Tony lead the field in GIR's hit at 79%. 

MATCHUP 2

Reed vs. Simpson

Reed +101 vs. Simpson -118

So Webb is $500 more expensive than Reed this week, but just like the matchup above, these are the kinds of lines that can give you good clues for big leverage in DFS gpp's. Reed is also expected to be popular this week because of both his recent form (though Webb also finished higher last week), and his course history (3 top 10's in his last 4 times out at TPC Boston). In fairness, Reed did hit the ball great last week, gaining 9 strokes ball striking which was his highest total since the 2018 Valspar. And if it wasn't for a very uncharacteristic -2.3 strokes around the green he probably would have had a shot to win. However, when you dig a little deeper into his course history, it's actually quite poor. The 'average' GIR hit % at TPC Boston is 67%. Reed has been WELL BELOW field average in 4 out of 6 years, and the 2 times he was above field average, he hit 68% both times....1% above field average. What does this tell us? Basically, he's just chipped & putted his dick off every year, and if we fact check this against Fantasy National data, he's #1 in the field in strokes gained around the green at TPC Boston, & in 24 rounds, he's gained strokes putting in 20!! of them. For Webb, he continued his absolute dominance at the Wyndham last week, and has very quietly turned himself into one of the elite iron players on tour this year. Consider that in 6 of 10 events in 2020 he's gained at least 4.2 strokes on approach shots, & when he does that his LOWEST finish is 12th place. He's essentially become what Jordan Spieth was 3 years ago, and outside of Sedgefield is generally flying under the radar.

MATCHUP 3

Berger vs. Cantlay

Berger -120 vs. Cantlay +100

As with almost every week since the restart, Berger once again has DFS value compared to his head to head pricing. Off the bat, you can see that recent form is the biggest thing separating these two guys. I'll continue to point out that over the last rolling 24 rounds Daniel Berger is #1 in the field in total strokes gained & #3 in strokes gained tee to green. Cantlay has been 'ok' the last 3 events gained around 2-3 strokes tee to green. Both guys have sneaky good history at TPC Boston...Berger has hit 71%, 74%, 67%, & 74% of his greens in reg here, and Cantlay has hit 74% & 75% (remember field average is 67%). The place where Cantlay does have a true edge over Berger is putting on bentgrass. It's far & away Berger's worst surface & far & away Cantlay's best surface. Cantlay also appears 5 times in the 10 facts this week. 

Other interesting lines:Horschel -129 vs Fowler -101Im -118 vs. Ancer -112Woods -120 vs. Fleetwood -110Henley -125 vs. Ben An -105Scheffler -123 vs. Hovland -107Schauffele -126 vs. Moriakawa -104Rahm -127 vs. JT -103 

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• His last event was his highest strokes gained tee to green total ever

• This is projected to be his highest ownership of the year

• He's lost strokes putting in 3 of his last 5 events

• Bentgrass is his worst putting surface

• He loses strokes to the field in every scoring atmosphere sans easy scoring courses

• He's lost strokes around the green in 13 of 16 events this year

• He's a head to head pickem against someone $200 cheaper

• He's 83rd in the field in the top 2 approach shot buckets

• Despite being a bomber he's 60th in the field in par 5 scoring

• Over his last 50 rounds, he's 52nd in the field in DK points scored

At 19.2% actual FNGC LU generated (4th highest), Matthew Wolff, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Why do mailmen (or women), FedEx drivers, and UPS delivery people have to ring the damn doorbell when they drop off a package on your front door steps. It's annoying as shit. Especially when it makes your dog go nuts and your trying to work from home. Furthermore, it's the equivalent of playing the game ring and run like we did as kids because they immediately run back to their trucks and don't even say hello. I don't like this practice and it needs to stop.

I've always thought that sweat was such a funny thing. It's just like this weird warm human juice that leaks out of your body when you exercise or are exposed to heat. Or in my case, hungover as hell, and your body temps are all f'd up. 

I wonder if someone who is deathly allergic to nuts has ever been killed by a squirrel that they just came in contact with that had just eaten a nut?

Why are there no "B" batteries? 

Why is sandwich meat round when bread is square?

Alright, that's all I got folks! Enjoy The Northern Trust this week and stacked field. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!