The Mexico Open 2024 Chalk 💣

Looks like the Finau extended family will enjoy a nice Spring Break this week with clear skies, warm weather and no real wind to speak of this week at Vidanta Vallarta. Conditions will be nice and firm and the pros should be able to attack these slow paspalum greens with no wind interference.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Maverick McNealy -130 ($8100) vs. Austin Eckroat +100 ($8000)

Unlike last week’s loaded field, we start this week with a matchup featuring two heavyweights in the $8k range…. But seriously, for those teeing it up in DFS this week, you might be interested to know that for just $100 more, Maverick McNealy is a pretty significant favorite in sharp head-to-head betting markets over Austin Eckroat.

The current iteration of the Mexico Open is only three years old, so not too many guys in the field at Vidanta Vallarta will have much experience around this track. Both of these guys came down here last year, but both left with little to show for their efforts as Eckroat finished T49 and Mav T60.

Looking at their projected DFS ownership, our Nut Hut aggregate data shows both are expected to be owned in around 11-12% of lineups, so neither is necessarily a chalk or pivot play.

Davis Thompson -136 ($8900) vs. Mark Hubbard +106 ($9000)

Up a little closer to the top of the DFS shopping list, Davis Thompson is a heavy favorite in 72-hole h2h markets over Mark Hubbard despite being a marginally cheaper option on DraftKings.

This may come as a surprise to the course history stans as Hubbard has played in each of the first two Mexico Opens at Vidanta finishing T51 in 2022 and T18 last year. Thompson on the other hand will be making his first start at this event this week.

Both of these guys are among the higher-owned players, but Thompson is especially so. DT is trending toward Chalk Bomb eligibility at just over 15% projected ownership while Hubbs is closer to 11%.

Justin Suh -113 ($8300) vs. Brandon Wu -117 ($9100)

Lastly, let’s take a closer look at the $7k range where Justin Suh is basically even in the sharp betting market with Brandon Wu even though there’s a massive difference in DraftKings DFS pricing between the two.

Here we have another discrepancy in terms of course history with Wu playing some of his best golf of the last two years in two trips to Vidanta Vallarta with a pair of top-3 finishes. Meanwhile, Suh has skipped this event each of the last two years and will be making his first start here.

Wu is expected to be a chalky play with our Nut Hut ownership projections expecting around 15% for him. Suh on the other hand could be an excellent pivot play in the $8k range as he’s flying under the radar at 7% ownership.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

On Thursday at Riv, it looked like Cameron Young was going to keep the fires burning hot in the Chalk Bomb department after posting a +2 first round at the Genesis. But to his credit, he bounced back big time and earned a respectable enough T16 finish that ultimately cools our Chalk Bomb hot streak somewhat.

But an elevated field at Riviera was always going to be a tough place to fade the big names, and now we head South of the Border where there’s almost a complete lack of star power altogether.

Longtime fans of this segment will know that in order to qualify for this infamous selection, players must be projected to be owned in over 15% of DFS lineups, and this week, man, are our options limited. The weak field has resulted in a group of only six golfers that meet our ownership requirements. So how to choose?

If there’s one thing we’ve learned over the first two years of the Mexico Open at Vidanta, it’s that this course is the textbook definition of a bomber’s track.

With 13 driver holes, our analysts at Bet the Number have Vidanta Vallarta as a 9 out of 10 on their ‘Bomber’s Paradise’ scale. According to their data, tee shots that end up over 20 yards farther than the average drive result in an additional 2.3 SG per round, while drives that fly 10-25 yards shorter than average lose 1.33 strokes per round.

So you might be surprised to find out that this week’s Chalk Bomb is actually one of the best drivers of the ball in this week’s field. But the fact of the matter is it’s such common knowledge that Vidanta is a tee-shot golf course that basically any ‘chalk’ player is going to be strong in that department.

However, if there is a weakness off the tee for this player, it’s that he doesn’t hit it quite as long as some of the other popular bombers in the field. Although he ranks 8th in the field in SG: OTT and 14th in Ball Speed over his last 24 rounds, he’s outside the top 30 in terms of Driving Distance.

While not as important as prowess off the tee, approach play and scrambling is still important in a tournament like this where the winning score is likely to be in the high-teens or low-twenties range. This week’s Chalk Bomb may struggle a tad more than the other favorites to fill up the scorecard with red figures as he ranks 73rd in the field in SG: APP and 69th (nice) in SG: ARG over his last 24 rounds.

Don’t get me wrong, this is a bold play. Vidanta is a place where we’ve seen the favorites go off, and with this player literally ON the ownership threshold at 15% projected ownership, I’m not ashamed to admit I’m taking the lowest hanging fruit possible.

But for what it’s worth, this week’s Chalk Bomb is a heavy underdog to other similarly priced players in DFS. Looking at sharp 72-hole head-to-head betting markets, Nicolai Hojgaard is a -160 favorite over this player, and even Stephan Jaeger in the $9k range is a slight favorite as well.

The inflated price tag as a result of the weak field is probably reason enough to stay away, but it doesn’t help that this will also be his first start at Vidanta whereas most of the other favorites have at least some limited experience here.

Is it my most confident Chalk Bomb of the year? No. But if you’re a sicko like me who absolutely has to play some DFS this week, I’m willing to wager you’re better off without this guy in your lineups.

With that said… Thomas Detry, you are the Chalk Bomb!

I feel like there should be a way to combine flossing and tooth brushing. I mean, it’s 2024.

Swimming doesn’t seem like exercise to me because you don’t get sweaty.

I am very glad that even though my nose is constantly in view of my eyes, my brain tunes it out for me.

I mean, if you think about it, dolphins and whales are like astronauts exploring space for the fish.

Alright, that’s all I got this week. Enjoy the Mexico Open at Vidanta. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!