Mexico Open HP 2023

HP 🍑 for The Mexico Open

April 25, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.We are right back at it this week with a full field, standard format event at the beautiful Vidanta Vallarta property and Greg Norman signature course that once again plays host for Mexico Open this year. If you are looking for an all encompassing course and event preview, here is a link our newest TJ member Nate Moore's Rundown for the 2023 Mexico Open .Make sure to check it out for a deep dive on the event, but here are some bullet points to keep in mind when starting your research this week:

  • 6th longest course on tour that is only made longer by sea level elevation and spongy Paspalum grass throughout the property.

  • Nearly 80% of approach shots last year came from 150 yards plus which is substantially above tour average.

  • The average approach shot in 2022 was 202 yards. By far the longest approach shot distance of any event last season.

  • The course primarily rewards driving distance and good mid to long iron approach shots.

  • Wider than average fairways give players the ability to pound Driver Off the Tee without the fear of a penal miss ruining their round. Bombs away!

  • Minimal rough penalty and even though the course features the 3rd most bunkers of any course on the schedule, they are far from complex or difficult should a player end up in one.

  • Jon Rahm is your defending champion who won last year at the outright betting price of +450 which was by far the lowest odds of any winner in the past 3 years. Could he actually one up this accomplishment this season as his current odds price is +275 in most markets?

  • The greens are large in size and fairly flat with medium speed paspalum. It's a stange enough and unusual surface that we recommend utilizing paspalum filters when looking at putting and ARG for a true gauge of performance.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for Vidanta Vallarta:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation from last year:

Wu, Trainer, Murray, Kraft, Lipsky, Reavie, Kodaira, Smalley

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation from last year:

Ernst, Werenski, Johnson, Hahn, Gomez, Noh, Islas, Streelman

DataGolf Draftkings Optimal Lineup:Rahm, Jaeger, List, Bramlett, Cole, Tosti

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1. Strokes Gained Ballstriking at Vidanta Vallarta Leaders that are in the field this week : 1. Lipsky  2. Finau  3. Wu  4. Smalley  5. Ghim  6. Rahm  7. Griffin  8. Woodland  9. Hodges  10. Rodgers2. Rounds Gained Putting Leaders for career on Paspalum Greens : 1. Brown  2. Lebioda  3. Trainer  4. Kraft  5. Becerra  6. Bryan  7. Baddeley  8. Byrd  9. Grillo  10. Champ3. Leaders in Total Driving over the past 36 Rounds Played :  1. Grant  2. Rahm  3. Gordon  4. Grillo  5. Schmid  6. Bhatia  7. Gribble  8. Champ  9. Woodland  10. Finau4. Leaders in Proximity to hole from 200+ yards on approach shots in last 36 Rounds: 1. Woodland  2. Rahm  3. Hardy  4. Nunez  5. Hoffman  6. List  7. Roy  8. Kizzire  9. Wu  10. Gligic5. Strokes Gained Approach Leaders on long courses over 7,400 yards with easy to hit fairways : 1. Rahm  2. Glover  3. Watney  4. Putnam  5. Lashley  6. Hoffman  7. Haas  8. Cole  9. Walker  10. Woodland6. Leaders in Driving Distance Gained on the field in last 36 rounds played : 1. Hojgaard  2. Islas  3. Matthews  4. Schmid  5. Ernst  6. Champ  7. Tosti  8. An  9. Cone  10. Woodland7. Strokes Gained  Short Game Leaders from last years Mexico Open: 1. Lebioda  2. Brown  3. Haas  4. Bryan  5. Trainer  6. Champ  7. Jaeger  8. Reavie  9. Becerra  10. Rahm8. Recent Strokes Gained T2G Leaders over the last 10 Tournaments adjusted to field strength : 1. Rahm  2. Finau  3. Clark  4. Rai  5. Woodland  6. Smalley  7. Tosti  8. Jaeger  9. An  10. List9.  Top 10 in Fantasy Value Given Salary via DataGolf:  1. Rahm  2. Tosti  3. Bramlett  4. Jaeger  5. Clark  6. Finau  7. List  8. Gordon  9. Hodges  10. Cole10. Datagolf Leaders in Postive Adjusted Course Fit for this week: 1. Matthews  2. Westmoreland  3. Hojgaard  4. Tosti  5. Champ  6. An  7. Schmid  8. Bramlett  9. Tarren  10. Cone

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