Mexico Open Chalk Bomb 23

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Nothing much with the wind/weather right now that would indicate a worthy wave advantage. That said, the wind can definitely be a primary defense of this course since it is so coastal and exposted. Things can change quickly and we will see you tonight with final thoughts on the weather.As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Gary Woodland -136 ($9,600) vs. Nicolai Hojgaard +112 ($9,500)

Interesting matchup here that stuck out right away when the books posted Gary is a pretty large favorite here given the pricing proximity in DFS. Ownership on both players looks to be pretty similar with boys guys checking in around 16-17% ownership in the Nut Hut Research Center.We have not seen much movement on the line since it's release which would indicate the market agrees with the price set by the sharpest bookmakers. Woodland of course is known for being a stud with his long irons but Hojgaard straight bombs it and is much more proficient around the greens.We ran a head to head matchup simulation based on data from the last 100 rounds played and Gary won this matchup only 50.68% of the time which would equate to a true betting price of -102.

Matt Wallace -127 ($8,100) vs. Harry Hall +105 ($7,400)

What's unique about this matchup is where the books opened up the odds, with Wallace only a slight -112 favorite over Harry Hall. Since, we have seen money come in on the recent Corales Champion pushing his price up to -127.We have a pretty substantial price difference in DFS here, especially given the lack of mid tier depth in this field. This would appear a decent course fit for Wallace given the extra room OTT but Hall has been the better player both OTT and on the greens over the last 36 rounds.Matt Wallace is projected to be around 8% owned and I think will get a late bump as casuals will gravitate toward the recent win. Harry Hall looks to be coming in around 9-10% which stands to be a potential pivot off the higher priced Wallace is you trust the books opening line.

Aaron Rai -118 ($8,900) vs. Joseph Bramlett -102 ($7,800)

Here we have an intriguing matchup where the sharpest sportsbooks actually opened Joseph Bramlett at a -112 favorite over the substantially higher priced in DFS, Aaron Rai. We definitely have a stark contrast in playing styles between these two players and it seems like the prevailing course narratives this week would lean into it being a better setup for Bramlett's skillset.That said, the books quickly took action on Rai which has now settled in on him being a -118 favorite in this head to head matchup. Interestingly, the strokes gained total numbers over the last 36 rounds played for each player are nearly identical, with both guys gaining around 0.5 strokes total on the field per round.Pay close attention to ownership and we would recommend waiting as long as possible until tonight's final projections are posted in the Nut Hut research center. That said, right now Rai is projected at 10.5% and Bramlett comes in at 11.5%. Good luck this week!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. After a 1 week off hiatus for the chalk bomb given there was no Zurich article, let's not forget a stellar chalk bomb implosion for the Heritage when we wrote up Cam Young and he scraped his way to a dismal T51. Toot that horn, we love those weeks!This has to be one of the most difficult and awkward selections of the year. Look, Rahm is going to be 40% owned. It's pure insanity. He's +260 to win the tournament. It has been a lonnnng time since we have seen any of these metrics next to players name in gambling markets. The question is, are we going to play with fire?Now normally I have no problem tossing a little gas on the fire, but this feels kind of like blindly pulling the pin and throwing a grenade in a room with 3 walls. The only, and I mean only argument against Rahm besides the ludicrous ownership is that maybe he spent the last week partying and has zero care about the state of his game this week. Here's the thing, I believe both are probably true, but it still doesn't matter. What is realistically his floor performance this week? A T7?In my opinion, just eat the chalk there. There's probably a 1 in 3 chance he wins and if he does you have a shot at a Big GPP with over half the entries dead. Instead, I looked into what is our next best option to fade. There's another high profile player that is projected at ridiculous ownership with middling results lately and certainly not doing anything remotely close to Jon Rahm.This player has literally one finish inside the top 20 since early February in a cut-event and it was a mediocre T19. The stats say the ballstriking has been solid but slightly below his baseline standard. What is really hurting this player is they have been either getting killed by ARG game or Putting in almost every event. They cannot seem to put both together right now. The last time they gained strokes on the field in both ARG and Putting was the Amex in January.The average approach shot distance from last year at this event was 202 yards! That is the longest average approach length from any course all of last season. This player is normally a stud with a long iron in their hands, but lately over the last 36 rounds played they have dropped to 47th in this field from 200+ yards. They have not been capitalizing on their strengths to the same degree at which they are used to which is always concerning when taking a player highly owned and high priced.Overall there has just been a level of inconsistency and inability to put together 4 rounds basically this entire 2023 for this player. There are concerns with their inconsistency on paspalum grass as well throughout their career, as this surface is one of the two green surfaces in which this player has lost strokes to the field putting throughout their career.For me, the chalk bomb came down to 2 players this week and I think one holds substantially more win equity and a much higher floor performance. By this point you know exactly who we are talking about. At the second highest ownership this week (25%) and $10,700, Tony Finau, you are the chalk bomb!

Gas station parking lots and there surrounding areas are the Wild Wild West of driving. Literally anything goes. I think one of the worst traits a person can have is an annoying laugh. I mean, some people should be trained better with their laugh. You know, catch it an early age and correct it like a speech issue or something. I feel like being the local weatherman isn't near as cool as it used to be. Food trucks are just ice cream trucks for adults. More should be playing loud music though if you ask me. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy the Mexico Open at Vidanta Vallarta and this amazingly bad field. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!