The 2024 Memorial Tournament Chalk 💣

Some Wednesday rain has softened the course going into the opening round, but there’s no guarantee scoring will be any easier. High winds are expected on both Thursday and Friday, but the first groups off in round one might just dodge the worst of it.

 For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9 pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Xander Schauffele -125 ($10,900) vs. Rory McIlroy +105 ($11,100)

Let’s start with two of the three top players on the leaderboard where the oddsmakers have Xander Schauffele as a heavy favorite over Rory McIlroy in a 72-hole matchup despite the defending PGA Champion’s $200 discount in DraftKings DFS.

Neither are strangers to Muirfield Village with a whopping 18 starts at the Memorial between them. Both have excellent records here, but neither has ever won this event.

Both of these guys are extremely chalky plays in DFS this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Schauffele and McIlroy are both over 20% — that’s more than any other player except Scottie Scheffler.

Collin Morikawa -164 ($9800) vs. Viktor Hovland +131 ($10,200)

Keeping with the big names, Viktor Hovland may cost more than Collin Morikawa in DFS, but the Norwegian is a HUGE underdog to the Californian according to the sharp head-to-head markets.

Both players have exactly four prior starts apiece, and each only has one strong result to show for it. Collin’s came in 2021 when he lost in a playoff to Patrick Cantlay, and Viktor’s arrived with a playoff win over Denny McCarthy last year.

These two are chalky as well with both of their ownership projections in the mid-teens. Morikawa is actually the fourth-most popular player at 19% while Hovland is still a hefty 14 %-owned.

Russell Henley -133 ($8000) vs. Corey Conners +103 ($8500)

Lastly, let’s check out the $8k range where Russell Henley is a big favorite in a 72-hole matchup over Corey Conners who costs an extra $500 in DFS.

Henley has seven prior starts at the Memorial to Conners’ five, but neither have too many fond memories of Jack’s Place. Henley has just two top-20 finishes, albeit with one of them coming in 2023 — and Conners has only one top-20, a T13 two years ago.

These two are among the more popular plays this week with both trending around 13-14% ownership as of Wednesday.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

We’re one week away from Pinehurst and the second major championship of the year, but we shouldn’t overlook what will be an awesome event this week up at Jack’s Place.

One of the perenially-popular stops on the PGA TOUR, the Memorial once again features an elevated $20m purse that has attracted the biggest names to Dublin, Ohio, and that means plenty of stars to choose from for this week’s Chalk Bomb.

According to our Nut Hut data available in the Tour Junkies Discord, six players meet our minimum 15% ownership threshold to be eligible as a fade option this week. That’s a bit of a surprise considering Scottie Scheffler is eating up over 30% all on his own.

We’re damn sure not fading Scottie this week at a course that should fit his game perfectly, so who has the honor of being this week’s Chalk Bomb? Well, our friends at Bet the Number have scouted Muirfield Village thoroughly and put together a model featuring the most important metrics for this particular layout.

According to their analysis, Jack’s Place will test just about every club in the bag with an emphasis on scrambling, putting and ball striking. This tournament is one of the closest to a ‘major championship’ setup we see on the PGA TOUR, so it’s no surprise to see a solid all-around game is required to perform here.

While this week’s Chalk Bomb has the iron play to contend this week, his precision off the tee and on and around these bentgrass greens are causes for concern. This player ranks 35th in the field in SG: OTT over his last 36 rounds, and much of that is due to some erratic aim. This player ranks 63rd out of 72 players in Driving Accuracy over his last 36 rounds.

Closer to the hole, this player has struggled to recover from greenside rough and bunkers — something that all of these players will be tested on this week. The Chalk Bomb ranks 35th in SG: ARG over his last 36 rounds on shots played from non-short grass lies.

But if any one thing will be the killer for this week’s Chalk Bomb, it’s his horrific putting. Over his last 36 rounds, he’s damn near last in the field in SG: Putting as he ranks 69th (nice).

With stats like these, it’s unlikely this player will find himself atop the leaderboard on Sunday — but at only $7,900 in DraftKings DFS, you don’t need him to.

But with an expected ownership of over 15% and some other enticing options in that range like Si Woo Kim, Shane Lowry, Russell Henley and Alex Noren, I’m gonna be staying away from everyone’s favorite family man…

Tony Finau… You are the Chalk Bomb!

Has there ever in the history of the world been an ironing board that doesn’t squeak loud as hell when you open or close the legs?

There are tons of squirrels but I have never seen squirrel poop.

Why is there no breakfast soup.

I am often amazed that a car, a large bus, and a semi truck all fit in the exact same lane on the road

The tone and enthusiasm with which most people sing Happy Birthday makes it seem like they really don’t want you to have a Happy Birthday.

Alright, that’s all I got for this week for the Memorial Tournament. Good luck with all your lineups and bets and may your screens be green! Bome!