The Memorial Chalk Bomb 23

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Once again, the weather looks to be a complete non factor all week. Very little wind and no rain in the forecast. Last year this course played very soft the first couple of days due to rain so we expect firm and fast all week long this year!For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Patrick Cantlay -116 ($10,500) vs. Jon Rahm -104 ($11,000)

Let's kick things off with 2 of the top players in the field and golfers that account for 3 of the last 4 wins at the Memorial. Here lies a matchup that we Jon Rahm open as a -115 favorite in the sharpest market making sportsbooks before the dollars came in on Cantlay making him the current favorite in this 72 hole matchup bet.We know about the ridiculous course history at Muirfield Village for both players, but both players are also playing very similarly entering the event this year as well. Over the last 36 rounds played, Cantlay has averaged +2.33 SG total per round while Rahm is at +2.29!In terms of ownership, both are projected around 23% based on the most recent Nut Hut projections which is interesting given you can take on the $500 in savings with Cantlay this week.

Jason Day -111 ($9,400) vs. Jordan Spieth -109 ($8,900)

Another tight betting line with two players priced with a $500 gap in DFS. We have seen some significant line movement in this matchup as well over the last 2 days. The books opened with Day at -125 which left Speith as a +money underdog in this head to head.I looked at DataGolfs DFS Point Projections for these two players. They are really close, Day is projected to score 72.7 while Spieth is projected for 71.4 points this week. Not much of a gap given the difference in price on Draftkings.I had initially thought Jordan would be very popular given his slip into the 8k range but it appears there are still some legitimate injury concerns surrounding his status. Spieth is projected to be 10.8% owned while Jason Day is around 9.5%.

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KH LE -169 ($7,300) vs. Ryan Fox +149 ($7,100)

Warning, we have ANOTHER week where sharp bettors absolutely love KH LEE! This line opened at -150 which looked to me like a potential opportunity on the Fox side given his recent form and popularity this week, but no no no...KH Lee has been once again steamed up to -169.It's hard to argue, besides maybe field strength, that Fox has not been the better player recently. He's gaining more strokes OTT, on APP, and Putting over the last 36 rounds. The biggest downside this week is his lack of experience around Muirfield Village and potentially his tendency for wild misses with Driver which can always lead to trouble around this course.Data Golf however gives a pretty big edge to Lee in terms of make the cut projections and total fantasy points. With the latest Nut Hut ownership projections, it looks like you can also gain a little leverage by playing Lee as he is projected at nearly 2% less ownership. Good luck this week!

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Tommy Lad completely detonated as last weeks chalk bomb and we have quietly been on a pretty solid run over the last 6 weeks. The re-engineered strategy of looking at players with high ownership projections in the 8-9k range has proven successful of late. This week, we have a 120 man elevated field so we project ownership will be fairly spread-out as their are so many good options in terms or form and projected popularity in the field.The Memorial Tournament annually presents one of the most difficult tests we see on the PGA Tour schedule. When they really want to firm up this golf course, the greens become slicker than otter snot and plays insanely tough. Two years ago, on Sunday for the final round, only one player was able to break 70! This is a week where I think it's important to utilize the filters when looking at stats on a website like Fantasy National. Muirfield Village is not TPC Craig Ranch or Vidanta Villarta. Making sure that you are paying attention to splits between total recent stats and how players fair on setups specific to this golf course is key.Jack Nicklaus golf courses are typically thought of as 2nd shot courses. He provides some flexibility in his designs and room for error off the tee, while demanding execution on your approach shots. We looked at all the players projected above 15% ownership in the Nut Hut research center and one player sticks out as struggling the most when it comes to approach play. Even more so, when you look how this player fairs in difficult scoring conditions on long golf courses, he drops further down to 89th in the field out of 120 players over the last 24 rounds with those parameters.With little to no rain in the forecast, and after hearing some players early press conferences, we fully expect the greens this week to be lightning fast. Again, paying attention to the differences in long term putting vs. long term putting stats specific to really fast greens. This players ranks 25th in the field in putting, but when you look at how they play on lightning fast greens, they drop to the bottom half of the field ranking 66th.The next thing we looked into is where the majority of approach shots are coming from in regards to yardage. Last year at this event, over 21% of approach shots came from 175-200 yards, by far the biggest proximity distribution bucket. This is well above the tour average of shots we see from this range at a typical PGA Tour event. This player has been pretty awful from this range all season, ranking 101st out of 120 players in average proximity to hole from 175-200 yards over his last 36 rounds played.The signs for potential struggle are there, and they are accompanied by inflated ownership. DataGolf has this player projected to score only 62 points which is by far and away the fewest of any player over 15% ownership. This can only mean one thing... Projected at over 16% owned and coming in with a salary of $8,000, Adam Scott, you are this weeks chalk bomb!

How come breakfast in bed is luxurious but dinner in bed is depressing. If you sit down or sit up it's the same thing. You're starting point is just different. Why do we raise our arms to knock on a door? You can make the same sound regardless of where you're hitting the door. Is there a more neglected edible food than bread end pieces? And what the hell for, it's just like a hot dog bun anyway.The adjustment cords on window blinds seem like very poor engineering to me. I can't stand when people name a business a Shoppe. Alright, that’s all I got this week! I hope you enjoy a milkshake and the Memorial. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!