This Week's Tour Stop The Memorial @ Muirfield Village 

Muirfield Round 2 + Welcome Back Tiger + Quick Covid Story!

I've gotten out of the habit of writing something non-golf in the opening, so I wanted to share a quick Covid story that happened this week. I know for most people, it's hard to appreciate the impact this virus can have unless you've personally seen someone go through it...I was in that same boat until recently. One of my employees tested positive 3 weeks ago...she got it from a group of family members that were also positive. After a week in the ICU she came out on the other side, but TWO of her family members were not so lucky. Both her brother and her brother's son (her nephew, only 13 years old) died on the same day, at the same hospital, of the same virus this week in Raleigh, NC...neither one had pre-existing conditions. I tell you this story not to be a Debbie downer, but only as a warning for perhaps the few out there that still don't think this thing is serious, & can't harm young, healthy people. Do your part, wear a fucking mask, wash your hands, and be courteous to those around you, it might just save a family member's life.

Back to golf! So after all the talk of how different Muirfield would play last week compared to past Memorials.....it basically played the exact same statistically. The rough will be half an inch higher this week, & the greens will be sped up 1-2 inches on the stimp, but other than that we will, for the first time in DFS golf history, be playing the same course again. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance and not absolute importance of the course fit. Well boys (& girl), this is what we know even more so this week: driving accuracy matters, with the 3.5 inch rough last week guys were having to punch out 100 yards, it's not going to be any easier with 4 inch rough, strokes gained on approach play is THE most important, if your struggling with your irons you've got to make up a ton of strokes on/around the greens. Recency bias will be extra strong so I made a list of guys that hit it well last week but didn't putt great in order of strokes gained tee to green just below. 

Leh Go!

T-3. Hovland (lost strokes)T-39. Bradley (lost strokes)T-22. Matsuyama (lost strokes)T-52. Steele (lost strokes)T-22. FowlerT-22. MerrittT-48. Taylor (lost strokes)T-39. Conners (lost strokes)T-27. Rahm

On the flip side, guys that were just ok tee to green but gained at least 4 strokes putting:

1. Morikawa (only one on the list that was more than 'ok' tee to green)T-5. WoodlandT-5. PoulterT-7. StreelmanT-7. HoffmanT-7. HorschelT-14. JonesT-14. SchauffeleT-17. CinkT-31. ZJ

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MATCHUP 1

Im vs. Horschel

Im -110 vs. Horschel -110

Clear cut DFS value on Billy Ho this week as he's $700 cheaper than Im yet a pickem in the betting markets. Im is currently at his 2nd cheapest price since August of 2019, so I wanted to take a closer look at just whats going on with him. Since the RBC Heritage here are his strokes gained tee to green stats: 0.4, 0.3, -0.5, -0.4, and in all 4 events, he's lost strokes on approach shots which are of the utmost importance at Muirfield Village. To boot, he's lost strokes putting in 3 of the last 4, I guess getting out of his hotel routine has finally gotten to him. When you get to the 10 facts you'll see that Billy Ho is mentioned 3 times, one being he was top 10 in the field last year in strokes gained tee to green. Billy gained strokes on approach for the 1st time since the restart last week which is encouraging, but I tempered some of my optimism because he also gained a season-high in strokes gained putting at 6.3. 

MATCHUP 2

JT vs. Cantlay

JT -160 vs. Cantlay +140

This was easily the most surprising line I came across this week, and even better that it involves 2 of the most heavily owned guys. Yea JT is $1100 more than Cantlay on DK, but man that seems like a big number for Patrick given he's technically the reigning champion at Muirfield. The bull case for JT (not that you really need it) is throughout his career, when he's gotten hot with his irons like he did last week, he's tended to stay hot. He got into a pretty bad putting funk at the end of last year that appears to be resolved, gaining strokes in 4 out of his last 5 events. The bear case is his course history (even after last week) is volatile, as he's gone MC, MC, 4th, 8th, MC, 2nd....so at Muirfield he goes big or he goes home, literally. We've only seen Cantlay for 2 events since the restart, but he's gained strokes in every single category in both. His ball-striking was much better last week, and he gained almost 5 strokes on approach JUST on Sunday. At implied odds to beat JT at 41.67%, that seems criminally low, especially given JT's volatile history & Cantlay going 4th, 1st, & 7th his last 3 times out at Jacks place. 

MATCHUP 3

Hovland vs. Matsuyama

Hovland +100 vs. Matsuyama -120

Yet another surprising line with the hottest ball-striker on planet Earth, Young Hov, is the underdog. Last week Hovland gained more strokes tee to green than BOTH Morikawa & JT, and was far & away the best driver of the golf ball last week in the entire field. The real change in his game has come from around the greens...before the restart, he was consistently losing 2-4 strokes every week, but since the restart, he's GAINED strokes around the green in 4 of the 5 events. The putter is still bad with 0 strokes gained being his high water mark, but thats actually quite a bit better than Hideki (for the year Hovland is averaging -0.5 per event putting). Hideki was 6th in the field last week in strokes gained tee to green, but his putting has been so bad that it's hard to even bet on mean reversion. Since the beginning of the season, he's averaged -2.4! strokes per event...that's good for 200th on tour this year. Give me Hov for betting & DFS. 

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.I'm going to sprinkle in some long shot FRL's tomorrow going off early. Again, I especially love long shot FRL bets since there is a high likelihood that you're splitting the bet if multiple players tie. I do see a slight advantage to the early guys on the greens tomorrow. It's supposed to be a little breezy the entire day tomorrow, and that may mean the greens get extra quick and glassy come the afternoon wave.

Through 23 Weeks: Spent $1150 / Won $1600 / Up 45 unitsFirst Round LeaderBradley (90/1)_$5, Straka (90/1)_$5, List (150/1)_$5Outright WinnerAncer (50/1)_$10, Kuchar (60/1)_$5, Niemann (70/1)_$7, Fitzpatrick (70/1)_$5,Leishman (90/1)_$3, Conners (125/1)_$5

I still believe Abe is as primed to win as anyone who's yet to crack their seal on their first PGA Tour victory. His ball striking and T2G game has been elite, but you get him at a middling 50/1 number due to the field strength. Kuchar is all about FOMO and that 60/1 number. His record here is insane, and if he makes some putts, watchout. He tends to putt very well on fast bentgrass surfaces. I'm in on Niemann personally this week, despite some recent skepticism. I'm warming up. I like his odds to win better than Kuch and Fitz despite being longer than Kuch and equal to Fitz. However, I do still like Fitz this week. He's played well in WGC fields and the occasional major, so I know the stage isn't too big for the wee accurate man from Europe. Plus, his form since the restart is very solid. As for Canadian Conners, I'm drawn to the exceptionally consistent and top tier iron play, the 3 digit number, the fact that he's won on the PGA Tour, and he's coming off the Workday where he finished T39, but even for him, lost more strokes than usual putting. I'm banking on him spending all Monday and Tuesday learning these greens and getting the putter dialed in. If he gets to ZERO SG: Putting on the week, he could win. Finally, Leish...I gotta be honest, Pat kind of sold me here on Monday night. Sure, his form since the restart has been hot garbage BUT...he won the Farmers in January, he nearly won the API before COVID, and he finished T5 here last year. You know what his recent form was last year right before Memorial on his way to that T5...MC, 49, 58, MC. He's very capable of popping out of nowhere despite poor recent form. Plus, last week was an anomaly in terms of his iron play as he lost nearly 2 strokes. He hasn't lost any strokes on Approach since the Tour Championship in Augusta and hasn't lost 2 strokes on Approach since the BMW prior to that. 90/1 is a large number for a multiple PGA Tour winner that has competed in strong fields and majors.

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a head to head underdog or pickem in all his matchups

• This is projected to be his highest ownership week since the WGC Mexico

• Since the start of the 2020 season, he has ONE top 13 finish

• He's yet to play an event in 2020 in which he doesn't lose strokes in at least one category

• He's lost strokes on approach shots in 2 of his last 3 events

• Despite a decent finish last week at the Workday, he set a season high for strokes gained putting, the 2nd highest total of his career

• Driving accuracy is key at Muirfield, & last week he only hit 53.6% of his fairways, well below field average

• He loses strokes against his baseline on easy to hit fairway courses

• He loses strokes against his baseline on long rough courses

• He's 46th in proximity in the 2 main approach shot buckets

• He's 76th in the field in the fairways gained over his last 50 rounds

At 14.6% actual FNGC LU generated (9th highest, though he's higher in several other places), Xander Schauffele, you're the Chalk Bomb! 

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Ranch is by far the best condiment to Fries over ketchup. Also Tater Tots are a better side item for a burger than French Fries. Tell me I’m wrong.

If you’re like me and “dress up” coffee with a ton of cream and little bit of sugar are you even really a coffee lover? Because let me tell you, black coffee taste like crap to me.

What’s the over/under of too many apps on your phone? I have 94 apps. I feel like that’s high.

So most of you may know we had a little TJ golf trip to Hilton Head Island this past week. Great times were had by all. That said, we played two very good courses in Harbour Town and Haig Point. So what do I do in those pro shops? I buy shit. So what does DB say about that?  “I’m not a golf course merch guy.” I’ve been thinking about that statement for several days now and just can’t come to terms with it. How can you not be a “merch guy” at famous or noteworthy golf courses? Ridiculous statement if you ask me.

That’s all I got folks! Enjoy the Great Fantastic field we have this week for the Memorial Tournament. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

1. 

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last years Memorial:

1. Cantlay 2. Merrit 3. Matsuyama 4. Streelman 5. Dufner 6. Leishman 7. Horschel 8. Grillo 9. Schauffele 10. Spieth

1a.

Strokes gained Tee to Green leaders from last weeks WorkDay:

1. Hovland 2. JT 3. Morikawa 4. Henley 5. Bradley 6. Matsuyama 7. Steele 8. Cantlay 9. Gooch 10. Fowler

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Muirfield (min 8 rounds): 

1. Reavie 2. Connors 3. Benny An 4. Cantlay 5. Niemann 6. Schwartzel 7. Cink 8. Dufner 9. Matsuyama 10. Furyk

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on bent grass (that also rank in the top 100 in ball striking):

 1. Spieth 2. Na 3. Fowler 4. Rose 5. Reed 6. Hadwin 7. Simpson 8. Putnam 9. Cantlay 10. Horschel

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ courses 7200-7400 yards, average to difficult scoring, and bent greens, your Total Strokes Gained leaders are (min 10 rounds):

1. Fowler 2. McIIroy 3. Matsuyama 4. Spieth 5. Rahm 6. DJ 7. Koepka 8. Rose 9. Cantlay 10. Finau

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on courses 7200-7400 yards, long rough, and easy to hit fairway courses your top 10 are (min 10 rounds):

1.DJ 2. Cantlay 3. Matsuyama 4. Rose 5. Bradley 6. Woods 7. Schwartzel 8. Moore 9. Niemann 10. Furyk

6.

 Your top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

 1. Hovland 2. Redman 3. Grillo 4. Steele 5. HV3 6. Schauffele 7. Morikawa 8. Taylor 9. Ancer 10. Tood

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's will be the most important at Muirfield, so your top 10 in par 5 strokes gained are:

1. McIIroy 2. Streelman 3. JT 4. Morikawa 5. Schauffele 6. Matsuyama 7. Cantlay 8. DeChambeau 9. Rahm 10. Clark

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 150-175 & 175-200, so your top 10 in proximity are:

1. JT 2. Morikawa 3. Niemann 4. Reavie 5. Hovland 6. Leishman 7. Oosthuizen 8. Redman 9. Casey 10. Li

9. 

Top 10 in GIR's gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Streelman 2. Furyk 3. Casey 4. Conners 5. HV3 6. DeChambeau 7. Ancer 8. Hadwin 9. Hovland 10. Norlander

10.

Top 10 'values' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing:

 1. Horschel 2. Garcia 3. Hadwin 4. Willet 5. Reavie 6. Lowry 7. Snedeker 8. English 9. Grace 10. Rahm