This Week's Tour Stop Mayakoba Golf Classic 2019 

"DB's Big Balls Betting Card"

I bet on golf for fun. You should too. Therefore, I don't get the betting erection I crave betting guys at 18/1 or 9/1. I realize that may be the sharper way to do things, but F that. I've felt the rush of have a big triple digit winning golf bet hit...and Daddy likes! Throughout the season, I'm going to show you my pre tournament bets, including what I'm risking, odds, and some brief logic behind the pick. I'm actually betting these guys. I'm taking $50 a week at $10 per unit to show you how I allot my dollars. Follow along, bet with me if you like, or completely fade everyone on this betting card. Up to you. However...I will say...I hit 5 bets in 2019 at 100/1 or longer.As of Wednesday afternoon, the weather in Playa Del Carmen is wet. It's been raining. Rain is expected Thursday and Friday. Wind doesn't look really play any factor at all except all day Saturday. Anything under 10mph isn't a big deal to these guys. Saturday looks consistently gusty. We have a little Caddie insight today. It doesn't really shake things up too much, but it does make our decision to weigh accuracy that much more validating. Pat leaned a little more bomber heavy during the pod, but it sounds like this wet rough will be penal if you miss these tight fairways. Here's the direct quote."Course is wetter than a water park. You can get some bad shit in the rough and it’s kind of tight. If the wind doesn’t get up it won’t play that tough though. Greens are so so paspalum."There may be a very slight advantage to the very early tee time dew sweepers as they get the dry-est conditions of the day given the rain doesn't start until around noon. Now, that could backfire if the rain that's supposed to hit around noon doesn't show up at all. Remember, I really only dig the really long shot FRL's since many times you end up chopping the odds if they tie with 2 or 3 or 4 other golfers.

Through 8 Weeks: Spent $400 / Won $750 / Up 35 units

First Round LeaderRedman (80/1)_$5, V. Taylor (90/1)_$5, Outright WinnerTringale (80/1)_$5, Zhang (80/1)_$5, Armour (90/1)_$5, V. Taylor (125/1)_$5, Long (125/1)_$5, Gomez (125/1)_$5, Dahmen (125/1)_$5, Dufner (175/1)_$5

Very doubtful those FRL bets hit, because I like a lot of other shorter odds guys to hit the FRL, but I refuse to bet a FRL at 40/1 when that shit could get split 2 or 3 ways. Redman & Taylor both go off in the first few groups tomorrow and could definitely get low like Lil John before the rain comes in. VT is always straight off the tee and his irons are solid. I decided to go $5 bets across the board on the Outright bets just because I like their value and numbers all pretty equally. I think these names provide INSANE value compared to the middle of the betting board. I'd rank almost all of these guys chances to win as high as just about anyone in the 45/1 to 75/1 range. I gave good reasons to like Tringale, Zhang, Armour, VT, Long, and Gomez on the podcast this week. We didn't talk about our boy Joel or Dufner. But, Dufner as a proven PGA Tour winner looking to make a comeback on an easy course built for ball strikers at 175/1 is too tempting to look past. He'll probably shoot eleventy seven over, but I'd kick myself in the dick if he won and I didn't jump on that number. With Joel...we know he's feeling good, and he hates tracks built for bombers. This is not a track he should be hating. What we know about Joel is that if HE feels good and like he has a chance...then, he'll play better.

All bets courtesy of MyBookie. Click the photo below for the 100% Deposit Bonus They've taken care of our listeners for over 2 years now. Come Bet with us!

 "Pop the Cork & Let it Breathe" Didn't like em Monday, but like em now

Lanto Griffin - $9,000 – Lanto has put together a fantastic fall swing start to the PGA Tour Season highlighted by a victory at the Houston Open, 6 of 6 cuts made, and all finishes inside the top 20. So basically this guy is one of the hottest guys on tour and he’s still projected at around 10-12% owned in DraftKings GPP’s this week. Lanto has been solid across the board on his current run as well ranking in the top 25 in the field in Ball Striking, Strokes Gained Approach (1st), Opportunities Gained (2nd), and DraftKings scoring (1st). I think it’s safe to say our boy Lanto is a Great Fantastic cash or tournament play this week in Mexico. Brian Gay - $7,900 – Admit it, you don’t like to play Brian Gay, I don’t like to play Brian Gay, but hear me out this week because I think he could turn out to be the key player in winning all the monies this week. First off, we all know Brian is typically very accurate off the tee, a better than average putter, and is almost always in the mix on short courses like we have this week at El Chameleon Golf Club. Gay has also played in Mexico the last 3 years making the cut all three times and finishing T41, T25, and T28 respectively. Brian has also been in solid form this fall with 5/5 cuts made, a 3rd just last week in Bermuda, and a 7th place finish at the Shriners a few weeks ago. Gay might be about as boring as it gets but with the form, history, stats and a projected ownership of around 8%, I love him as a sneaky tournament play this week. Brandon Wu - $6,800 – While Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff, and Colin Morikawa are getting all the love in regards to the hot out of college studs on tour (with good reason), Brandon Wu has silently started his career quite well in his first PGA Tour start with a T17 at the Houston Open just a few weeks ago. I’m telling you, this kid is a future star also and definitely one to watch heading into 2020 regardless if he’s playing mostly on the Korn Ferry tour. In addition to his solid tour debut, Wu also made the cut and finished T35 at the US Open in June showing he’s definitely capable of hanging with the big boys even on a major stage. He’s currently projected at around 2% owned in DraftKings tournaments giving you fantastic leverage there and also checks the box in Ball Striking, Strokes Gained Approach, Greens in Regulation, and he’s very accurate off the tee. I think we see another solid performance from the kid this week and will definitely take a flyer on him in my tournament lineups.  

 "Pontificate with Pat" Random thoughts from Pat

Well, I finally tried this Popeye’s chicken sandwich that everyone is raving (and literally fighting people over) and while it’s a fine sandwich, it in no way whatsoever compares to a Chic Fil A chicken sandwich. CFA is just in realm of it’s own that cannot be touched. Go back to your shanties Popeye’s truthers, the debate is over. So today is the first really cold day down here in the South (30+ degrees, meaning basically I live in Antarctica right now as far as I’m concerned). I know we have a lot of folks who listen and subscribe to the Chalk Bomb that live in colder weather environments and I just want to give you folks props. I’ve been thru 8 excruciating hours of this and just want to crawl up in a bed with 3 blankets and my dog. I respect the hell out of you people. Fist emoji, strong arm emoji, snowflake emoji Just had a thought pop in my head. How the fuck does Dry Cleaning actually work? That’s all I got this week folks. Be sure to tip your bartenders and waitresses and may your screens be green this week for the Mayakoba Classic!

1. 

Strokes gained total leaders at El Camaleon (min 12 rounds):

1. Knox 2. Piercy 3. Grillo 4. Garnett 5. Si Woo 6. CH3 7. Lee 8. Spaun 9. Perez 10. McDowell

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at El Camaleon (min 8 rounds): 

1. Duncan 2. Grillo 3. Horschel 4. Burgoon 5. Spaun 6. Kirk 7. Bradley 8. Pan 9. Dufner 10. Armour

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Paspalum/Bermuda:

 1. McCarthy 2. Malnati 3. Day 4. CH3 5. English 6. Gay 7. McDowell 8. Donald 9. Perez 10. Todd

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ course lengths of less than 7200 yards, paspalum/bermuda greens, and easy scoring...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 12 rounds):

1.Knox 2. CH3 3. Kuchar 4. Cook 5. Hahn 6. Piercy 7. ZJ 8. Garnett 9. Horschel 10. Grillo

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy to hit fairways and short courses your top 10 are:

1. Chez 2. Hovland 3. Taylor 4. Kisner 5. Dufner 6. Stadler 7. Stanley 8. Watney 9. Henley 10. Bradley

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1.English 2. Grillo 3. Ben Taylor 4. Hubbard 5. Wise 6. Wu 7. Norlander 8. Duncan 9. CH3 10. Hearn

7.

Strokes gained on the par 4's will be the most important at El Camaleon , so your top 10 in par 4 strokes gained are:

1.Niemann 2. English 3. Hovland 4. Harman 5. Horschel 6. Tringale 7. Higgs 8. Griffin 9. McCarthy 10. Poston

8.

The two highest approach shot distribution buckets this week are 125-150 & 150-175, so your top 10 in proximity are :

1. Taylor 2. Straka 3. Landry 4. Hoon-Lee 5. Hoge 6. Grillo 7. CT Pan 8. Henley 9. Stanley 10. Hoffman

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1.Grillo 2. Hovland 3. Stuard 4. Long 5. Zhang 6. Reavie 7. Armour 8. Niemann 9. Gay 10. Champ

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Piercy 2. Bradley 3. English 4. McDowell 5. Fittelli 6. Sabbatini 7. Harman 8. HV3 9. Ancer 10. Gooch

Tour Junkies IG Post of the Week 

- @Tour_Junkies on IG