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No weather advantage this week in the Classic builds. I do think it is wise to target early AM golfers in Showdown slates. They are getting a decent amount of rain today but it appears to end early in the morning. I expect soft conditions which will be nice for the golfers that go out early.

As always, final weather thoughts will be discussed TONIGHT in the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET and going until...GET IN THERE! 

Scottie Scheffler -142 ($11,400) vs Viktor Hovland +117 ($11,200)

In 2 market making H2H sportsbooks, Scheffler opened and remains a heavy favorite against Hovland. This really all comes down to ownership play more than not liking Hovland. Obviously, Hovland’s recent form has been trending upwards and we all know his course history here at El Camaleon. With that said, Scheffler has a nice course history here as well with T18 and T4. Per DataGolf, Scheffler actually ranks higher on SG Performance Vs Expectation than Hovland. Over the past 12 rounds, Scottie ranks 2nd OTT, 1st in Ball Striking, and 2nd in T2G. The only metric holding him back is the putting which I believe is negated somewhat this week with very slow sticky Paspalum greens. With Hovland coming in over 23%, for only $200 more, Scheffler makes for an enticing pivot projected around 15%

Brian Harman -125 ($8,900) vs Emiliano Grillo -105 ($9,100)

Given all the Grillo love in the streets, it's interesting to see a market making H2H book have Harman a favorite in this matchup. First off, I do want to outline that I am not a Grillo guy at all. I am especially not a Grillo guy at close to 20% ownership. Grillo has phenomenal course history here with his last five finishes being T9, 15, T41, 8 and MC.On the flip side, Harman has a very mediocre course history here with a T68, T72, T30, and MC in his last four appearances. Vegas has Harman as a favorite against Grillo, Montgomery, and McNealy. Harman has played twice in this swing season and has a T15 and T23. His off the tee and approach has looked great in both of those events. To me, this is just an easy game theory play here with Harman being half the ownership of Grillo. 

Greyson Sigg -111 ($7,300) vs Adam Long -119 ($7,400)

Adam Long seems very similar to last week where everyone loved Kramer Hickok strictly because of course history. Hickok ranged from 8 to 12% last week and struggled. This week, Adam Long will be over 13% and it is strictly due to course history. If you look at his recent numbers, he has only gained strokes ball striking at one event since his withdrawal at Wyndham Championship.Sigg has played here one time and finished T33. During the fall season, Sigg has competed in four events with the following finishes: T51, T9, T44, and T11. I love the course fit for Sigg here. Give me Sigg at almost half the ownership (around 8%) who has much more upside.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

So, the last chalk bomb was not good with picking Aaron Wise at the CJ Cup where he finished 6th and only came in at 13% ownership.This week I feel strongly about our chalk bomb selection even though Vegas seems to love him this week. This golfer is a heavy favorite against McNealy, Montgomery, and Jason Day. He did open as basically even against Mav McNealy, but then eventually the money came in on the Hoge side. You could argue that's a disbelief in Mav, but at least the market making H2H book thought the 2 were basically equal this week. He has been talked about on almost every podcast I have listened to this week and does seem to make sense because he is solid off the tee and ranked #1 in the field on approach over the last 24 rounds. He has also had strong finishes over the swing season with a T12, a T4, a T9, and a T12.With that said, he has played this tournament the past five years and has the following results: T61, MC, MC, T3, and T56. Over the 24 rounds played at El Camaleon he has only gained a total of 0.11 strokes per round.Overall, he gains the least amount of strokes in easy scoring conditions versus average and difficult, according to FNGC. Based on ownership projections it appears that he is getting over 20% ownership at a price tag of $9,500. It just feels like a poor play at the price and top 5 projected ownership when you can pivot to a few more talented players in the same range at less ownership. Some nice pivots would be McNealy, Montgomery, KH Lee, Detry, Henley if you want to go lower. Otherwise, just pay up for the golfers with higher win equity but similar ownership in Morikawa, Finau, Hovland, and Scheffler.

At 20%+ (Top 5 highest) projected ownership, Tom Hoge,

you are the Chalk Bomb! 

At what point does a stick become a log? I mean, is there a weight and girth component to it? You never see a snail actually arrive somewhere. They are just there. I don't think I've ever touched the number 7 on a microwave in my life. I have also never looked more for a volume button on a microwave until it's 1 am and you're trying to microwave some White Castles while everyone in the house is sleeping. Never found it by the way. Why are suitcases so damn expensive? It's just an organizational box to put some clothes in. Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the long titled sponsorship event at Mayakoba. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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