Match Play Chalk Bomb 23

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No real weather thoughts to report on this week. Potentially a slight advantage both mornings but keeping in mind this atypical nature of this event where Players are competing solely within their matchups and not unanimously against the course, we don't see a real advantage to a weather stack.As always, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pmET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Keegan Bradley -105 ($7,700) vs. Denny McCarthy -115 ($6,900)

Here's our first interesting matchup where the lower seeded player and cheaper option in DFS is actually a favorite in the first round head to head matchup. Lines have just been released so we have not seen much movement yet but was surprising to see Denny favored.DataGolf actually has both players projected with a 22% chance to advance out of Group 3 with Rory up top. Keegan ofcourse is overall the much more consistent and better player but don't sleep on Denny in this type of format. Keegan has been notoriously awful in match play throughout his career with a record of 1-12-6.3 of the 4 members in this group have lost strokes putting over the last 24 rounds. Denny on the other hand has gained +.66 putting per round which is going to make him a very tough out. McCarthy also looks to be the player that will come in lower owned in DFS.

Sahith Theegala -115 ($8000) vs. Min Woo Lee -105 ($7,600)

Both players reside in an interesting Group 11 as the 2 and 3 seeds where implied win percentages within the group are spread pretty evenly. DataGolf projects that Sahith has a 26% chance of advances out of the group stage and Min Woo Lee has a 21% chance.When we ran a head to head matchup simulation over 100 rounds, Min Woo is actually projected as a slight favorite winning 50.28% of the time. When looking at data across all tours over the last 36 rounds, Min Woo also has the advantage in terms of stats as he is averaging +1.74 strokes gained per round vs. Theegale at +0.94 per round.The big thing here for DFS is going to come down to ownership. We know these two players are relatively even in terms of implied percentages to win, but it appears now the Sahith will only be around 8% owned versus nearly double for Min Woo Lee at 15%.

Kurt Kitayama -129 ($7,600) vs. Adrian Meronk +108 ($6,400)

Finally, in our third matchup the betting line just doesn't match up with the DFS price gap here. Kitayama is a slight favorite but you have to jump up $1,200 in DFS to grab Kurt coming off his first victory at API a few weeks ago.It's possibly this line is actually sharp. I was surprised to find out when running a head to head simulation of this matchup, Meronk is actually projected to win 57% of the time which would equate to a money line price of -135.DataGolf tends to agree as well, only issuing Kitayama a 2% higher change of advancing out of this group versus Adrian in this case. This all makes Meronk's price point attractive, but his ownership will likely come in around 8% while paying up for Kitayama is projected around 6-7%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. Sammy Burns, last week's Chalk Bomb, made a nice little run on Sunday despite the weight of the CB being on his shoulders last week. Good on ya'. That said, we escaped another week without the Chalk Bomb really threatening winning the tournament which is always a plus and sometimes keeps me up at night when I see their name on the leaderboard.We move on this week to the Match Play and stop me if you've heard this mentioned during your research...Optimal. As DFS lineup builders in golf have become sharper and sharper each year, it still rings true about 1 in every 4 lineups are built "sub-optimally" which gives those within the know an even further advantage.When hand building, understand the somewhat shocking unlikeliness of the top seeds advancing that we have seen historically here. Last year 8 of the top 16 advanced out of the group stage, but the year prior only 1 made it out! If you realize only 33% of the time since 2015, the top seed advances, it makes it much easier to make a case to fade one the highest priced and highest owned players this week.I'm looking for a CB candidate with distractions! Lots of them. We landed on a guy who's been dealing with needling questions that seem to be chipping away at his normally stout foundation in the media room. Questions regarding LIV, the changes to the PGA Tour schedule, etc all seem to be weighing on this player moreso now that his game hasn't been up to his standards the last few months.The biggest area of concern right now in this players game has been the Putter. Over the last 24 rounds played, as compared to other top seeds in each group, this player has been the second worst in terms of SG: Putting. This is ofcourse problematic in any Match Play scenario. There have been several stats this week released showing that Putting has historically been much more important in terms of success in Match Play versus a standard Tournament.Also, I find it noteworthy that the CB this week elected to skip the Match Play last year. Every other player priced above $9,200 this week chose to play in this event last year...so why didn't this player? It's a question worth asking, as maybe this player does not enjoy this type of event which requires more days, more rounds, more golf...My gut also thinks this player may have been inclined to skip this year as well, had they not already turned down an elevated event earlier this season. It's worth some consideration.Finally, nothing screams "STAY AWAY" quite like equipment changes and controversy. We have heard plenty of it this week with the Chalk Bomb, throughout the bag from the Driver to the Putter. They have been pretty outward regarding their criticisms of their current setup in the bag, and I just don't envision this as a good spot to get things dialed in given the amount of golf required to actually win. An absolute dragon of a chalk bomb, a player so gifted that it makes writing their name down as the Chalk Bomb difficult in itself. But... Lord RORY MCILROY, at $10,500 and 17% projected ownership, you are this weeks CHALK BOMB!

I feel like it's impossible to get in or out of hammock and look somewhat athletic and cool doing so. I am currently wrestling with the fact that I just might need to increase the text font size on my phone. This is REALLY bothering me and I do not want to do it. Sorry, I am just not a fan of people eating their Pizza folded. Just eat it normal. Also if you eat Pizza crust first you're a psycho. I'm not sure I know a single person who actually likes cottage cheese. Maybe it's a dying cheese? When I'm eighty years old I hope I'm still just randomly running up stairs for no reason at all like I do now. I seriously thought that would be something I stopped doing in maybe my twenties.Alright, that’s all I got for this week. Enjoy the variance and a fun and different format this week for the WGC Matchplay. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!