The Masters 2024 Chalk 💣

The world’s most beautiful course has been at its best so far for Masters week, but as is often the case at the year’s first major, Mother Nature has something to say. Clear skies and sunny days in the lead up have Augusta National Golf Club deliciously firm and fast, but a downpour coupled with dangerously high wind gusts are coming on Thursday to throw a wrench into the Tournament plans. The skies will clear for a dry weekend, but the gusty breezes are expected to stick around through early Friday as well.

We anticipate a weather delay of some sorts tomorrow morning. The Augusta National has already delayed patron entry in the morning. We heard from a caddie today that they’ve heard the starting time will likely be pushed back 2 or 3 hours.

For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE

Xander Schauffele -114 ($9900) vs. Jon Rahm -106 ($11,200)

We start with a pair of heavyweights (well one and Xander) at the top of the DFS price range where the sharp oddsmakers are giving a slight edge to the X man in a 72-hole matchup with the defending champ.

It goes without saying that both of these guys have plenty of pedigree at Augusta National, but here’s a stat anyway: over the last six years, Schauffele and Rahm have combined for a total of eight top tens at the Masters.

It’s no surprise both of these guys are expected to be among the most popular plays this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Xander is coming in north of 22% owned while Rahm is right around 16%.

Hideki Matsuyama -116 ($9000) vs. Jordan Spieth -105 ($9300)

Looking at the low end of the $9k range on DraftKings, 2021 Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama is favored in a 72-hole matchup vs 2015 champ Jordan Spieth despite a slight discount on the Japanese international.

Obviously, both guys have fond memories and good experience to lean on at Augusta National — so no real advantage there. But Matsuyama is the much hotter player coming into the week with a win at the Genesis followed by three-straight finishes of T12 or better over the last month.

As a result, Hideki is coming in as the second-highest-owned player after Scottie Scheffler with an ownership projection of almost 23%. Spieth is a bit chalky as well but much less so at around 16%.

Joaquin Niemann -140 ($9600) vs. Wyndham Clark +110 ($10,000)

After Rahm and Brooks, Joaquin Niemann might be LIV’s best chance to claim the year’s first major, and the Chilean is a big favorite over Masters first-timer Wyndham Clark who is $400 more expensive.

Both players are coming in hot with stellar performances as of late, but Joaco of course has the local knowledge advantage with four previous Masters starts.

According to our Nut Hut ownership projections, neither player is overly popular in DFS this week as Niemann is coming in around 12 %-owned and Clark around 9%.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

The year’s first major brings with it a stacked field of big names to fade. That’s easier said than done at Augusta National where we all know the winners tend to come from the top of the odds sheet. The last 11 Masters winners were all ranked inside the top 30 in the OWGR the week prior to their victory, so it’s more than likely that one of the star players will take home the Green Jacket once again.

But which one definitely won’t? That’s what we’re trying to find out. If you’re a newcomer to the Tour Junkies newsletters, the Chalk Bomb is all about identifying a player who will be a popular play in DFS that could be a good option to fade. Our self-imposed threshold limits us to players who are coming in at over 15% projected ownership according to our Nut Hut data available in the Tour Junkies Discord each week.

So who fits the bill at the 2024 Masters Tournament? Everyone knows what it takes to perform well at Augusta National. Excellent mid-to-long iron play, length off the tee, experience on these tricky greens and a creative short game are all common characteristics among those who have donned the Green Jacket.

Looking closer at approach play, the expert analysts at Bet the Number have identified the 175-240 yard range as especially important at Augusta National. While this week’s Chalk Bomb comes into the week ranked 13th in the field in total SG: Approach, his ranking from this particular range isn’t nearly that high. Over his last 50 rounds, this player ranks 36th in the field in SG: APP from 175-240. Not bad, but not nearly good enough for a player at his expensive price point in DFS this week.

The numbers paint a bleaker picture when looking at performance on and around the famously difficult green complexes at Augusta. The Chalk Bomb’s short game is not in great shape as of late as he ranks 57th in the field in SG: Around the Green over his last 50 rounds, and he’s even worse once he’s on the putting surface. This player ranks 61st in the field of 89 in SG: Putting, and the Masters isn’t exactly the tournament to ‘figure things out’ with the flat stick.

Now this is the part where I emphasize this is far from a safe bet. This segment is risky by design, and you’ll be taking a gamble fading this guy who has seven top-10 finishes in 15 Masters appearances. But at 17% ownership and a price of $10,800 in DFS, you’re better off eating all the chalk with Scottie Scheffler who is a -172 favorite in a 72-hole matchup against this week’s pick.

We successfully faded him at Pebble Beach earlier this year when he finished T66, and while I expect him to perform much better at ANGC, I can’t justify the chalk and the price point compared to some of the other options out there.

Rory McIlroy, you are the Chalk Bomb!

How do we know a beached whale actually even wants to be saved.

If you’re a coffee mug traditionalist, cup holders have really failed you. It’s sad.

I feel like we are always hearing how an eclipse is a once in a lifetime event and then there’s some sort of eclipse like every 3-4 years.

Humans should really appreciate our natural abilities to scratch an itch quite easily on almost any part of our bodies.

I don’t think I’ve ever received a good technical explanation as to why paper beats rock in Roshambo.

I bet there’s more people than you think who’s first experience with Babybel cheese was eating thru wax.

Alright folks, that’s all I got this week for the 88th Masters Tournament. I hope you all enjoy the best tournament on the best course in our world. Good luck, stay well, and may the good lords bless all your DFS lineups and bets. Bome!