Masters 22 Chalk Bomb

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Hello Friends, & welcome to the best week in golf. It's been two LONG years with no patrons to walk the grounds at Augusta National, and (almost) all of team TJ will be on site this week. If you're around hit us up on Twitter or IG & we'll buy you a green cup on the inside or a frosty mug on the outside. The weather looks to be playing a huge factor which *should* equal carnage both on the course & in DFS lineups (more on that below) Let's roll!Course history always gets beat to a pulp at Augusta, so let's break down form heading in and see if we can spot any patterns or edges. I went back & looked at the last 23 Masters champs from the beginning of the calendar year they won, to the Masters (so Jan-April). Below are the results:

1999 Olazabal

- T35, T52, MC, Win Masters

2000 Singh

- T19, T41, T2, T18, T36, T50, T29, T33, Win Masters

2001 Tiger

- T8, T5, T13, 4, T13, Win, Win, Win Masters

2002 Tiger-

 T10, T12, T5, 2, Win, T14, Win Masters

2003 Weir-

 T9, Win, T3, Win, T14, T27, MC, Win Masters

2004 Phil-

 Win, T7, 3, T4, T24, T3, 10, Win Masters

2005 Tiger-

 T2, Win, T13, T17, Win, T23, T53, Win Masters

2006 Phil-

 T5, T8, T7, T38, T12, T14, Win, Win Masters

2007 ZJ- 

45, W/D, 33, 33, 14, 42, 9, Win Masters

2008 Immelman-

 MC, MC, T17, MC, T65, T48, T40, MC, Win Masters

2009 Cabrera-

 MC, T13, T33, T32, MC, MC, Win Masters

2010 Phil-

 19, T45, T8, T24, T14, T30, T35, Win Masters

2011 Charl-

 4*, Win*, 8* (those 3 were SA tour), 14, 24, 47, 30, Win Masters

2012 Bubba-

 18, 13, 5, 13, 2, 4, Win Masters

2013 Scott-

 T10, T33, T3, T30, Win Masters

2014 Bubba-

 T23, T2, Win, T9, T2, W/D, Win Masters

2015 Spieth-

 T7, MC, T7, T4, T17, Win, 2, 2, Win Masters

2016 Willet-

 54, Win, 45, 3, 22, 22, Win Masters

2017 Sergio-

 11, Win, 49, 14, 12, Win Masters

2018 Reed-

 MC, 23, 17, MC, MC, 37, 2, 7, Win Masters

2019 Tiger-

 20, 15, 10, 30, Win Masters

2020 DJ-* 

(going back 12 weeks) Win, 2nd, Win, 6th, 2nd, Win Masters

2021 Hideki

-19, 53, 42, MC, 15, 18, MC, 30, Win Masters

*indicates non-PGA Tour event

So lots of really interesting takeaways here...it's really hard to say that you HAVE to be in good form to win the Masters because clearly, you don’t. But it does look like you need to at least be in OK form, with Immelman, JMO, & Cabrera being exceptions as they were in poor to very poor form.  On the other extreme, you have guys that were red hot coming in & won (everyone 01-06', Bubba 12' & 14', Spieth 15', DJ 20'). So to break it down into buckets:

Guys that were red hot: 9 out of 23Guys that were meh: 11 out of 23Guys that were cold: 3 out of 23Guys that won w/in 4 months of the Masters: 11 out of 23Coming off a missed cut before the Masters: 4 out of 23At least one top 10 in the previous 3 starts: 14 out of 23Coming off a win: 2 out of 23 (Tiger & Phil of course)Coming off a top 10 in their last start: 9 out of 23 (if you don't count Bubba's W/D in 14')

The one bucket that checks the most champs off is at least one top 10 in the previous 3 starts, so for your reading pleasure, here is that list :

Scheffler, DJ, JT, Hovland, Smith, Gooch, Burns, Cantlay, Berger, Lowry, Niemann, Hatton, Fitz, Casey, Horschel, Homa, Woodland, Harman, Kisner, Straka, Spaun, HV3, Cink, Herbert

The other non-subjective bucket was they won w/in 4 months of the Masters that list is:

Matsuyama, Swafford, List, Hoge, Scheffler, Niemann, Straka, Smith, Burns, Spaun (& we'll throw in Euro Tour wins as well): Pieters, Hovland 

Game TheoryThe sportsbooks are currently giving 41 players a 1% chance or greater to win this week. With the field set at 90 players, that's less than half of the field that books are giving any symbionts to win. So you're really going to have to pick your spots & decide who you want to be really overweight on. If you're not taking really bold stands in this field size, you're doing it wrong. Let's take a quick look at how the chalk did the last 5 years and what the combined Milly Maker team ownership (ownership of all players added together) came in at for the Masters:

2021: For the 2nd time in the DFS era, you had to eat at least 1 bit of chalk. But this is also a great example. While on paper Rahm ($11k) finishing 5th at 17% looks great, he was NOT on the Milly Maker winning lineup. Ironically enough, the person you HAD to have last year was Conners ($6900) OR Leishman (also $6900 at a cool 3.3%). Once again, you could have faded 8 of the 10 most popular plays & been just fine    1. Spieth (3rd/33%) 2. JT (21st/27%) 3. Casey (26th/26%) 4. Conners (8th/22%) 5. Bryson (46th/19%) 6. Smith (10th/19%) 7. Rahm (5th/17%) 8. Berger (MC/16%) 9. Niemann (40th/16%) 10. DJ (MC/15%)

2020: The 1st time in the DFS era where you had to eat some chalk, BUT if you just landed on DJ & faded the rest of the top guys you were sitting pretty. 1. DJ (Won/34%) 2. Finau (38th/26%) 3. Schauffele (17th/22%) 4. Rahm (7th/21.4%) 5. DeChambeau (34th/20%) 6. Kokrak (MC/17%) 2019: You could have easily gotten away with completely fading the top 6 owned players. 1. Kuch (T-12/33%), 2. Rory (T-21/21%), 3. CH3 (T-32/21%), 4. Fowler (T-9/21%), 5. Hideki (T-32/20%) 6. Fleetwood (T-36/19%). You would have needed the 7th highest owned (Finau), but even the 8th highest owned (Sergio) missed the cut. Tiger was 14-15% last yearMilly: The winner had 74% total lineup ownership & left $100 on the table2018: You once again could have completely faded the top 3 owned guys. 1. Rose (T-12/31% ) 2.Kuch (T-28/29%) 3. Tiger (T-32/25%). Patrick Reed was 9% owned on averageMilly: The winner had 85% total lineup ownership & used the full salary2017: AGAIN, you could have completely faded the top 5 owned guys & been in great shape. 1. Rory (43%!!!/12th in DKpts) 2. Rahm (31%/T-27) 3. Fowler (T-11 /31%) 4. Spieth (30%/T-11) 5. Hatton (28%/MC). Sergio was 18-19% owned on averageMilly: The winner had 112% total lineup ownership & left $300 on the tableSo what did we learn? 1. Don't be afraid to fade the chalk, especially at Augusta. 2. With the 'real' field size being so small, just getting 6/6 through probably won't do shit for you 3. The cut rule is top 50 & ties..with a 'real' field of about 75 guys, this will lead to super-high 6/6 4. About half of all Milly teams will use 100% of their salary cap....don't do it! 5. Try to keep your total team ownership below 85-100%...the higher you go, the more money you need to leave on the table to differentiate 

Boy oh boy. This could certainly change things. It's going to be pretay pretay unseasonably cool this week. Thursday will be fine with a high of 71, Friday only gets up to 65, Saturday 53!, & Sunday 65. And look at that wind! According to windy.com we're supposed to have sustained winds of at LEAST 11 mph daily with gusts up to 30 on Friday! I can see Spieth praying to 5 pound 6 ounce baby Jesus on the 12th tee as we speak. Wave advantage? I would lean late/early as of right this minute (Tues night). I think it's also helpful to go look at the 2007 Masters, the last time it was really cold with crappy weather. The winning score was +1, with almost everyone in the field having a round of 76 or worse. I do have one more list for your reading pleasure...the top 10 strokes gained T2G in windy conditions the last 50 rounds:1. Rahm2. Morikawa3. JT4. Casey5. McIIroy6. Simpson7. Berger8. Garcia9. List10. Cantlay

Yea, JT is $400 more expensive than Cam, but I think this is a nice example of the books showing value on JT despite that. JT will be popular, but he's chalk that I'm actually willing to eat. He made the 15 facts 6 times and did you know, he's number 1 in the field in historical GIR's gained at ANGC? (My #1 stat to gauge true course history).  Dating back to the Northern Trust, all he's done is go 7 for 11 in top 8 finishes. He's always been a world-class ball-striker but gets very little credit for his around-the-green game. Over his last 9 events, he's gained strokes around the greens 8 times. Yes, the putter is always a roll of the dice, but over his last 5 events he's averaged +0.9 strokes gained. For Cam, at the Players he somehow won while losing 5.2 strokes off the tee...I would guess that is probably the one & only time that has ever happened in PGA tour history. That week he gained an unreal 11.5 strokes putting, his career-high.  And while traditionally you can spray it at the Masters & still get away with it, with the changes they made this year plus the weather, that would greatly concern me. 

Cantlay -103 vs. Scheffler -113

Considering Cantlay is $2500! cheaper than Scottie, the books are giving ole Cantople some nice value in DFS. Just like w/ JT, if we go back to the Northern Trust, all he's done is play in 9 events, & have 7 top 11 finishes. If you look at his player card, it's going to be very deceiving. I'm willing to give a pass to anyone on the wrong side of the draw for the Players, which he was. And if you look at his negative strokes gained approach numbers from Pebble Beach & the AmEx, those numbers are only from 2 of the 4 rounds he played (he finished 9th & 4th so obviously he hit them just fine the other rounds). He has one of the most bankable short games, gaining strokes around the green in 11 of his last 13, and putting in 11 of his last 13. Bent grass is also far & away his best putting surface. For Scottie, yes, he's been really really good. It's hard to be world #1 & not be on a heater. However, there are definitely some gaps in the program so to speak. He's lost net strokes off the tee for his last 3 events, in 2 of his last 4 he's lost strokes on approach shots, and he's gained more strokes putting in the last 4 events than in any other stretch of his (young) career. For Scottie to return value this week is basically HAS to finish in the top 10 in DK points scored at a bare minimum. Even on a public sportsbook, you can find Scottie at +110-120 for a top 10 finish. So the books expect him to finish outside of the top 10 more often than inside the top 10 (& honestly you probably need him to finish top 6 or better). 

Xander -153 vs. Brooks +130

From what I can see Brooks is going to be more highly owned, yet the books are giving Xander a fairly big nod (expected to win 2 out 3 times). I know Brooks can supposedly turn it off & on at will, but just look at the results from his last 14 events: 54, 31, 22, 67, 38, MC, MC, 28, MC, 3, MC, 16, MC, 12. Not great & certainly no consistency. And it's not like he's just been struggling in one area. His usually elite driver has been ok, the irons are flipping positive & negative every other event, he's NET lost strokes around the greens his last 20 event, & he's ALMOST net lost strokes putting his last 20 events #NotGreat. Xander on the other hand, when we give him the same free pass on the Players for being on the wrong side of the draw, has been hitting the ball great his last 3 times out. Again removing the Players, he's gained at least 3.2 strokes on approach his last 3, & at least 1.2 strokes off the tee in his last 4. He's a great tough conditions player and came one bad swing away from chasing down Hideki last year. 

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play.

-Bent grass is his worst putting surface-His baseline strokes gained drops as conditions get more difficult-He's in the 4th to last tee time on Friday. The worst of the wind-He's lost strokes off the tee in 6 of his last 9 events-This is his highest DFS price ever in a major-Over his last 24 rounds he's 53rd in the field in GIR's gained-Despite a 'good' history at ANGC, he's 41st in the field in GIR's gained at just the Masters-He's 33rd in the field in the 2 main proximity buckets this week-On courses over 7400, he's 27th in total strokes gained & 67th in ball striking-On courses with short rough he's 49th in the field in strokes gained T2G-Over the last 50 rds in difficult scoring conditions, he's 68th in the field in strokes gained T2G At 15.5% (5th highest) projected ownership, Cam Smith...you are the Chalk Bomb! 

One of the great things about being out at the Masters is the time you have with no cellphone. One of the only annoying things though about being out at the Masters with no cell phone is how many times you reach in your pocket for it knowing full well it’s not there.

Augusta National added wine to the concession menu this year. Obviously they are huge fans of the Fantasy Golf Sommelier. That said yours truly forgot to ask what winery it’s from. If anyone finds that out let me know. Thank you. 

I feel sorry for the nickel. It just seems like the most unwanted coin out there. I hate when people give me nickels.I can't stand trying to fold a fitted sheet. There's got to be a way to do it right but all I end up doing is just convincing myself that the rectangle I tried to fold it into is perfect and not just a jumbled mess.One of the hardest things to throw away is actually a trash can. If you ever get a chance to get out to Augusta National you will immediately notice the beauty of the place but also how organized everything is. That said, ONE thing though that's absolutely not organized is the crosswalks in the fairways. Patrons cross those things with no courtesy for the other patrons coming the opposite way. It's complete disorganization. Shocking if you ask me. 

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the 86th Masters and Tiger back playing again. What a Great Fantastic week this should be. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!

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