Masters 2023

HP 🍑 for The Masters

April 03, 2023

If golf research were sexual...you'd be rounding 2nd base after this.

Here are a few key things to know that may not have been covered on the podcast enough. Keep these in mind when narrowing down your bets and/or player pool.Home Game for Team TJ! It's Masters week ladies and gentlemen! We have already released our tournament previews as well as a bunch of other Masters specific content this week, make sure to support the team! As if this event wasn't already big enough, we now have the introduction of Team PGA vs. Team LIV all making their way down Magnolia Lane this week for the 2023 Masters!It will once again be an event like none other, but one that we see year over year has specific trends that seem to be about as repeatable and consistent as we get in golf. Here are some of the trends and notes we deem most important to consider for the 2023 Masters:

  • DataGolf once again has Augusta National ranked #1 in most predictive Course History by a wide margin.

  • 10 out of the last 11 winners had a T15 or better finish in their previous 3 starts leading up to Masters week. Gotta be in form to win a Major.

  • With the limited number of realistic guys that could win the Masters in addition to the typically tight leaderboard, we would all be wise to save some bankroll to fire at a few guys after Thursday or Friday (especially considering some of the unknowns with rain in the forecast).

  • 22 of the previous 25 Winners finished T38 or better in the Masters the prior year.

  • Significant changes to #13 as ANGC moved the teebox back substantially. We saw the effect it had on scoring at #15 the year prior. We expect much of the same this year with a lot of players choosing to lay up in front of the creek.

  • Distance Matters!

  • Players must be playing well currently. 12 of the last 13 winners had a top 8 finish in the events leading up to The Masters.

  • Veterans with substantial course knowledge can sometimes negate shaky lead in form. Look for old crafty vets who know the ins and outs of ANGC.

  • Over 52% of all approach shots in come from 175 & Longer. The number of shots from 150-200 yards out was much greater than an average week on the PGA TOUR, while wedge shots from 75 up to 150 were significantly lower than PGA TOUR average. Expect even longer shots into greens if fairways are soft from rain.

  • DataGolf ranks ANGC as one of the easiest courses since 2015 when playing from the rough off the tee.

  • Par 5 scoring is absolutely essential for success!

  • 2nd widest fairways on average on Tour behind only Kapalua. Bombs away with the first cut only being 1.4 inch rough.

  • Over the last 10 years, winning outright odds have averaged 37/1.

  • Just ignore the debutants. Augusta is just one of those places that takes patience to win and years to learn/conquer for most.

Here is the Data Golf radar plot on course fit for Augusta National:

Approach Shot distribution chart: (DataGolf)

DataGolf Stats:

Top 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at ANGC : Spieth, Conners, Smith, Lyle, Willett, Rose, Mickelson, Matsuyama

Bottom 8 in SG VS Expectation (min 16 rounds) at ANGC: Hatton, Woodland, Bradley, Bryson, Horschel, Cantlay, Garcia, Singh

Draftkings Optimal Lineup this week per DataGolf:

McIlroy, Finau, Day, Young, Mitchell, Sargent

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1. Draftkings Points leaders last 6 years at Augusta National : 1. Rose  2. DJ  3. Rahm  4. Scheffler  5. Spieth  6. McIlroy  7. Champ  8. Thomas  9. Zalatoris  10. Smith2. Rounds Gained % Leaders in Putting on Fast Bent Grass Greens last 36 rounds : 1. Finau  2. Kokrak  3. Noren  4. Hughes  5. Rose  6. Bryson  7. English  8. McIlroy  9. Im  10. Couples3. Weighted Strokes Gained T2G Leaders over the last 3 Months :  1. Scheffler  2. McIlroy  3. Hatton  4. Cantlay  5. Morikawa  6. Rahm  7. Day  8. Homa  9. Finau  10. Thomas4. Strokes Gained ARG Leaders on Difficult Courses with Fast Greens over the last 36 rounds: 1. Fleetwood  2. Kirk  3. Spieth  4. Day  5. Lowry  6. Finau  7. Na  8. Willett  9. Gooch  10. Matsuyama5. Biggest Positive Adjusted Course Fit Leaders via Datagolf : 1. Fox  2. Bryson  3. McIlroy  4. Lee  5. Burns  6. Spieth  7. Rahm  8. Koepka  9. Kitayama  10. DJ6. Strokes Gained Leaders in the Masters Field with data from 2023 LIVGolf Season : 1. DJ  2. Mito  3. Smith  4. Niemann 5. Reed  6. Garcia  7. Gooch  8. Koepka  9. Kokrak  10. Ancer7. Par 5 Scoring Leaders over the last 50 rounds played: 1. McIlroy  2. Cantlay  3. Im  4. Smith  5. Schauffele  6. Spieth  7. Thomas  8. Rahm  9. Fitzpatrick  10. Finau8. SG: Approach Positive Adjustments given Distribution Buckets via DataGolf : 1. Scheffler  2. Morikawa  3. McIlroy  4. Finau  5. Schauffele  6. Cantlay  7. Young  8. Rahm  9. Hovland  10. Thomas9.  Top 10 in Fantasy Value Given Salary via DataGolf:  1. Day  2. Young  3. Finau  4. McIlroy  5. Cantlay  6. Sargent  7. Scheffler  8. Mitchell  9. Willett  10. Mito10. Top 10 in Driving Distance Gained with Short Rough and Easy Fairways last 36 rounds: 1. Champ  2. McIlroy  3. Zalatoris  4. Bryson  5. Koepka  6. Rahm  7. DJ  8. Burns  9. Mitchell  10. Scott

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