"Every shot is w/in a fraction of disaster, & that's what makes it so great"

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 25 Key Stats can be found HERE!

Hello Friends, & welcome to my favorite edition of the email every year. For those of you looking for the usual massive opening this week, I decided to break it out into 2 separate blog posts on our site. You can find the 25 Key Stats in the link above, and you can find 22 years of every winner's form heading into the Masters PLUS the game theory section on what has/hasn't worked in the big GPP's on DK HERE. So let's dig into a couple of things that will be very different this year. No one is going to shoot 20 under. In fact, the sportsbooks are setting the winning score over/under right now at 9.5 under par, with the cutline at +4. We've heard lots of grumblings from the ANGC brass that they were none too happy that scoring records were being busted left & right last year. The players have already been talking about how firm & fast everything is, & you better bet your bottom dollar those subair machines are gonna be running all night tonight! I've posted the wind & weather forecast below. It could be quite the X factor if conditions stay firm. A great example was the back 9 of the 2019 Masters. The wind really started to pick up right as the leaders were getting to #12, & what do you know, 4 of the 6 guys in the last 2 groups all donated a ball to Rae's Creek. 

It doesn't really look like there's a wave advantage of any kind, but I do think the wind is going to really amplify your approach & around the green play. I don't care what anyone says, ANGC is a GIR course. You have to land your ball not just on the green, but on the right section of the green if you want makeable birdie putts. With the wind forecasted like it is, I expect the GIR% to drop, which in turn should make around the green play that much more important. 

(Image & data as always courtesy of DataGolf). Note this week I'm looking at the relative importance of the course fit. So just like we described above, everything is magnified this week with the exception of driving accuracy. But I would argue that since we expect it to play firm & fast, with windy conditions, the players are going to need to consider angles into the greens, where in November it was basically just bomb it down there as far as you can.   

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Casey vs. Smith

Casey -108 vs. Smith -104

Really clear DFS value on Casey this week as he's $500 cheaper than Cam yet the H2H favorite. Casey is gonna be either the #1 or 2 highest player this week (let's be honest, he'll be #2, Speef will be 103% owned). It's hard to deny how well he's played this year. 4 for 4 in top 10's, gained no less than 4.6 strokes tee to green, has gained strokes PUTTING in 3/4 this year, has *borderline* elite course history at ANGC, AND has a win in 1 of his 2 Euro starts in 21'. The anti-case? It's really about ownership, particularly if you are playing in big GPP's. All it will take for a successful 'fade' is probably a finish outside of the top 12 or so. For reference his T-10 implied odds are 26.5%, so 3 out of 4 times he's expected to finish outside the top 10. For Cam the case is a little more straightforward. Here are his strokes gained tee to green #'s from this year, tell me if you spot an outlier: (-1.6), 2.4, (-1.5),

10.3

, 1.6, 1.7. In fairness he's putting his you know what off the last 2 events gaining 12.7 strokes with the flatstick. I LOVE Casey in this H2H matchup for betting. 

Click the image above to sign up with Monkey Knife Fight!Free $50 when you use Promo Code: TourJunkies w/ 1st Deposit!

MATCHUP 2

DeChambeau vs. Spieth

 DeChambeau -134 vs. Spieth +119

No real shocker that Bryson is the favorite, I just wanted to break these two down because I expect them to both be polarizing (& popular). Let's start with Bryson. As Pat mentioned on the pod, it kind of feels like he's flying under the radar *relatively* this go around as compared to November. I still expect him to be in the 16-20% range, but that's still a discount as far as I'm concerned given he's $400 cheaper, in even better form, and was owned at 20.3% in the November Millionaire Maker. Over the last 20 months or so (post 7 protein shakes a day era) if Bryson gains ANY strokes on approach shots, you can pretty much pencil him in for a top 10. In the last 2 events, he's gained almost 10 shots on approach. Another thing is that the media oooo & awwwws about the driver, but Bryson has the putting upside that any of the historically great putters have as well. Consider that since the WGC Mexico last year, he's had 9 of 19 events where he's gained AT LEAST 1 full stroke putting per round. (For reference Denny McCarthy led the tour last year in SG Putting per round at .988). Now we arrive at Spieth Island. I was really, really hoping he would play poorly at the Valero so his ownership would at least be reasonable this week, sadly, he went & won the damn thing & now the pendulum has swung so far the other way, it's going to be a tough ownership pill to swallow. Most places have him in the 22-27% range, & honestly, anything sub 25 seems low. At this point, there's no denying his iron form is back. In his last 6 starts, he's gained 30.4! strokes and that includes the Genesis where he lost strokes! The around the green game has been solid every week in that stretch as well. The putter has certainly been more volatile w/ 3 of his last 7 gaining 0.2 or less, & 3 of his last 7 gaining at least 4.1 strokes. The driver has certainly been 'better' as he's back to gaining strokes, but he's still well below tour average in the accuracy department. So the anti-case? He just won in a SUPER weak field, & last week he did this: 2nd most strokes gained off the tee since the restart last year, 2nd most strokes gained on approach since the restart, 2nd most strokes gained around the green since the restart, & most strokes gained putting since the restart, all in one event. Whenever you have a situation like this I always like to look at the top 10 odds & remind myself that even with super juiced sportsbooks odds on him this week, his implied top 10 odds are still only 45.9%. With his price + ownership, his bar to 'fail' in a gpp is really low. Anything outside the top 10 would be a pretty easy victory in a contest like the milly maker. 

MATCHUP 3

Rahm vs. JT

Rahm -113 vs. JT +101

I've got a running joke with a group of college friends that just never seems to get old. It revolves around a Workaholics episode where they somehow get on the topics of 'dad dicks' and how once you produce offspring your manhood just starts growing again from unknown forces. It's arguably one of their best bits & I definitely overuse the joke. Anyways, Jon Rahm now arrives at the Masters with a dad dick, and at least in the head-to-head markets, is the betting favorite to win. His course history is really sneaky so far too. He could have EASILY kept Reed from donning the jacket in 2018 had it not been for a late slip on the back 9, was in the wild mix in 2019 on the back 9, & 'fizzled' to a 7th place finish last year. These two are fairly evenly matched with Rahm having the edge in OTT & putting, & JT having the edge in APP & ARG. This also shows up in the above course history. JT actually has the best GIR% at ANGC of ANYONE in the field, but 2020 was the first time that he's averaged less than 30 putts per round. To me, they both have the same ceiling (winning) and Rahm has the higher floor. 

Other interesting lines:Homa -117 vs. Kuchar +104Matsuyama -117 vs. Hatton +104Niemann -136 vs. Scott +121Conners -107 vs. Ancer -108Fitz -110 vs. Scheffler -102Garcia -108 vs. OosthCantlay -118 vs. Schauffele +105Finau -106 vs. Berger -106English -163 vs. Perez +144Berger -113 vs. Simpson +100McIIroy -107 vs. Spieth -105

Other interesting bets I like:The field -125 vs. the Big 6 (DJ, Spieth, Bryson, JT, Rahm, Rory)Highest Rd Score OVER 85 +135OVER 2.5 balls in the water on 12 in the 4th round -150UNDER 19 Players to finish the Tourney under par +100YES to a hole in one on 16 +180

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's in the very slightly worse tee time draw

• His average strokes gained almost falls to zero on difficult courses

• He's lost strokes off the tee in 3 of his last 4 events

• Dating back to the Farmers of last year, he's gained more than 3.2 strokes tee to green a mere two times

• In his last 2 events, he's gained 12.7 strokes putting, for his career he averages about 1 stroke gained per event

• Over the last 50 rounds on both firm & fast conditions, he ranks 66th in the field in ball striking

• On par 72's over the last 50 rounds, he's 68th in the field in strokes gained T2G

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 36th in the field in bogeys avoided

• Over his last 24 rounds, he's 73rd in good drives gained, and 64th in GIR's gained

• He's a head to head underdog to 2 guys cheaper than him

• On courses over 7400 yards, he's 79th!!! in the field in strokes gained ball striking over his last 50 rounds

• On easy to hit fairway courses he's 65th in the field in strokes gained T2G

• Despite finishing 2nd at the Masters in November, he hit almost 20% less greens in reg than the winner Dustin Johnson

At 15.1% calculated ownership % on Fantasy National (9th highest, though have seen him at 17-18% elsewhere) Cam Smith, you're the Chalk Bomb! No matter what though, I respect the shit out of the mullet

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

I really don’t understand why urinals aren’t standard in people’s houses. It just makes sense.

Has anyone ever actually mistaken Digiorno for delivery? I don’t think so.

If someone is talking to you and they start the conversation saying “With all due respect…” it absolutely means they are about to talk shit to you.

I tell you what. As I get older farting becomes a little bit more of a game of chance. You never know when a shart could happen. Gotta stay alert.

I’m going to let people in on a little secret about the Masters and the grounds of Augusta National. There are squirrels and birds on the course. It’s not the Truman Show in their people. A glass bubble isn’t surrounding the course not letting critters in. Now it is true they aren't as prevalent as you might see at other normal courses, but they are still there. Sorry to break this news.

Sometimes I wish that instead of lush green grass being considered the preferred yard decor that it was dirt. Much easier to maintain. It would be nice to just have someone drive by and say "Wow, look at Pat's dirt yard. It's immaculate."

Alright, that’s all I got for this week. I hope you enjoy the greatest sporting event in the world this week at Augusta National. Stay well, good luck with your lineups and bets, and may your screens be green! Bome!