The Grand Finale

DB's Big Balls Betting Card & the 10 Key Stats can be found HERE!

Hello Friends. We've made it. 2020 did it's best to keep us from making it to Augusta but in 24 hours we'll have balls in the air! I went DEEP for the opening this week so we'll get right into it, but I just wanted to take a moment to say thank you to everyone that reads/clicks/chirps at me on a weekly basis. It's been an incredible year at TJ, & I'm especially grateful for this silly little game we play & watch. Golf in any form has been a release for so many people around the country, and I'm hopefully that the growth we've seen in the game is here to stay. This will be my last Chalk Bomb of the year & we'll start fresh in 2021 at the Sony Open (hopefully with fans!)

Form Heading In

Course history always gets beat to a pulp at Augusta, so let's break down form heading in and see if we can spot any patterns or edge. I went back & looked at the last 20 Masters champs from the beginning of the calendar year they won, to the Masters (so Jan-April). Below are the results:

1999 Olazabal- T35, T52, MC, Win Masters2000 Singh- T19, T41, T2, T18, T36, T50, T29, T33, Win Masters2001 Tiger- T8, T5, T13, 4, T13, Win, Win, Win Masters2002 Tiger- T10, T12, T5, 2, Win, T14, Win Masters2003 Weir- T9, Win, T3, Win, T14, T27, MC, Win Masters2004 Phil- Win, T7, 3, T4, T24, T3, 10, Win Masters2005 Tiger- T2, Win, T13, T17, Win, T23, T53, Win Masters2006 Phil- T5, T8, T7, T38, T12, T14, Win, Win Masters2007 Johnson- 45, W/D, 33, 33, 14, 42, 9, Win Masters2008 Immelman- MC, MC, T17, MC, T65, T48, T40, T2*, MC, Win Masters2009 Cabrera- MC, T13, T33, T32, MC, MC, Win Masters2010 Phil- 19, T45, T8, T24, T14, T30, T35, Win Masters2011 Charl- 4*, Win*, 8* (those 3 were SA tour), 14, 24, 47, 30, Win Masters2012 Bubba- 18, 13, 5, 13, 2, 4, Win Masters2013 Scott- T10, T33, T3, T30, Win Masters2014 Bubba- T23, T2, Win, T9, T2, W/D, Win Masters2015 Spieth- T7, MC, T7, T4, T17, 1, 2, 2, Win Masters2016 Willet- 54, Win, 45, 3, 22, 22, Win Masters2017 Sergio- 11, Win, 49, 14, 12, Win Masters2018 Reed- MC, 23, 17, MC, MC, 37, 2, 7, Win Masters2019 Tiger- 20, 15, 10, 30, Win Masters

*indicates non-PGA Tour event

So lots of really interesting takeaways here...it's really hard to say that you HAVE to be in good form to win the Masters because clearly, you don’t. But it does look like you need to at least be in OK form, with Immelman, JMO, & Cabrera being exceptions as they were in poor to very poor form.  On the other extreme, you have guys that were red hot coming in & won (everyone 01-06', Bubba 12' & 14', Spieth 15'). So to break it down into buckets:Guys that were red hot: 9 out of 20Guys that were meh: 8 out of 20Guys that were cold: 3 out of 20Guys that won w/in 4 months of the Masters: 9 out of 20Coming off a missed cut before the Masters: 4 out of 20At least one top 10 in the previous 3 starts: 12 out of 20Coming off a win: 2 out of 20 (Tiger & Phil of course)Coming off a top 10 in their last start: 8 out of 20 (if you don't count Bubba's W/D in 14')The one bucket that checks the most champs off is at least one top 10 in the previous 3 starts, so for your reading pleasure, here is that list:DJ, Bryson, Rory, Hideki, Koepka, Webb, Hatton, Day, Cantlay, JT, Rahm, Smith, Watson, Conners, Champ, Schauffele, Griffin, Finau, Wolff, Oost, Kokrak, MunozThe other non-subjective bucket was they won w/in 4 months of the Masters (so we'll just say from the re-start for those of you waking up to golf for the 1st time since March) that list is:DJ, Bryson, Morikawa, Rahm, JT, Kokrak, CantlayGame TheoryThe sportsbooks are currently giving 42 players a 0.5% chance or greater to win this week. With the field set at 93 players, that's less than half of the total golfers that books are giving any symbionts to win. So you're really going to have to pick your spots & decide who you want to be really overweight on. If you're not taking really bold stands in this field size, you're doing it wrong. Let's take a quick look at how the chalk did the last 3 years and what the combined Milly Maker team ownership (ownership of all players added together) came in at for the Masters:2019: You could have easily gotten away with completely fading the top 6 owned players. 1. Kuch (T-12/33%), 2. Rory (T-21/21%), 3. CH3 (T-32/21%), 4. Fowler (T-9/21%), 5. Hideki (T-32/20%) 6. Fleetwood (T-36/19%). You would have needed the 7th highest owned (Finau), but even the 8th highest owned (Sergio) missed the cut. Tiger was 14-15% last yearMilly: The winner had 74% total lineup ownership & left $100 on the table2018: You once again could have completely faded the top 3 owned guys. 1. Rose (T-12/31% ) 2.Kuch (T-28/29%) 3. Tiger (T-32/25%). Patrick Reed was 9% owned on averageMilly: The winner had 85% total lineup ownership & used the full salary2017: AGAIN, you could have completely faded the top 5 owned guys & been in great shape. 1. Rory (43%!!!/12th in DKpts) 2. Rahm (31%/T-27) 3. Fowler (T-11 /31%) 4. Spieth (30%/T-11) 5. Hatton (28%/MC). Sergio was 18-19% owned on averageMilly: The winner had 112% total lineup ownership & left $300 on the tableSo what did we learn? 1. Don't be afraid to fade the chalk, especially at Augusta. 2. With the 'real' field size being so small, just getting 6/6 through won't guarantee you cash in GPP's 3. The cut rule is top 50 & ties..with a 'real' field of about 75 guys, this will lead to super-high 6/6 4. About half of all Milly teams will use 100% of their salary cap....don't do it! 5. Try to keep your total team ownership below 85-100%...the higher you go, the more money you need to leave on the table.

(Image from DataGolf) For course fit this week, it can be a little deceiving. Distance matters here, as it does everywhere, but I think the key distinction is that you just have to be long ENOUGH to go for all the par 5's in 2. I know I've made this point in years past, but it bears repeating...Augusta is really a GIR course. But it's not just 'get it on the green & you're good,' it's 'get it on the correct part of the green & you're good.' You certainly have to roll the rock to contend, but as history has shown us you don't have to be an elite putter (plenty of examples, especially post-Tiger proofing). The course GIR% average is 60%...I know I'm throwing lots of list at you but I think all these things are important. The GIR % for the past couple winners:

2019 Tiger: 81%2018: Reed: 67%2017 Sergio: 75%2016 Willet: 67%2015 Spieth: 75%2014 Bubba: 69%2013 Scott: 76%2012 Bubba: 74%2011 Charl: 68%2010 Phil: 75%

Leh Go!

MATCHUP 1

Hideki vs. Bubba

Hideki -144 vs. Bubba +127

Both guys are projected to be in the top 5-6 owned guys, AND the line was surprising to me so this was a no-brainer to break down. Since the re-start Hideki (by his standards) has had a pretty hoo-hum season, but since the US Open things have started to trend in the right direction. He's gained strokes in every tee to green stat for 3 straight events, and even turned in 4 good rounds of putting last week! As far as a price to floor ratio, it will be hard to do much better Hideki, even though we all know a -4 strokes putting round can pop up at any time. He's made 5 cuts in a row at Augusta & has only been below field average on his GIR% once. Hideki is someone I feel much better about playing in cash than gpp's. The head to head price surprised me because I didn't expect to see Hideki as such a large favorite. Despite what I would consider not a great price for Bubba at 9k, he's still one of my favorite plays. His tee to green, & in particular his ball-striking, has been peak Bubba. He's gained strokes in every tee to green category in 5! straight events, gained at least 3.1 strokes off the tee in 6 of his last 7 events, and his irons have been great. If you add up his last 3 events he's gained 29.8 strokes total tee to green! And if you remember from the opening, BOTH times Bubba won at Augusta he was in really good form coming in. 

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MATCHUP 2

DJ vs. Bryson

DJ -126 vs. Bryson +112

This is probably the key decision up top, and another surprising H2H price. DJ is miss priced this week, no doubt about it. Then add to the fact he's a H2H favorite over the highest-priced player on DK and it will only exacerbate his already bloated ownership like trying to get through a 12 pack of double IPA's after Thanksgiving. No matter how you slice the data, over the last 24 rounds, DJ is probably gonna be #1, 2, or 3 in said stat. So the much more interesting conversation is the game theory decision you'll have to make with someone who will be around 30% owned. For someone who has 4 straight top 10 finishes at Augusta, DJ really has fairly poor T2G history. Since 2011, he's been above field average in GIR% 3 times, & below field average 4 times. It's also interesting to note that the last 5 times DJ has been owned greater than 20.2% he's gone: 32nd, 7th in a 30 man field, 35th, 20th, 28th. So at least the past 2 years....just when everyone gets on the DJ bandwagon it's had a tendency to flip over. I also don't think we need to have an extensive discussion about Bryson's stats as it really will just boil down to one thing, the putter. Everyone knows he's basically playing a par 68, everyone knows that he might only hit 1 approach shot longer than a 6 iron all week. What we don't know is what version of Bryson's putter did he bring with him? Just to humor you, let me rattle off his last 9 strokes gained putting events (+7.8, (-0.2), +10, +4.8, (-4.2), +4.4, (-4.5), +4.5, (-0.2))...I think even Hideki would be jealous of that volatility. I do think it's important to note that Bryson is a BIG user of green reading books which you can't use at Augusta...how much does matter...it's anyone's guess. For course history, Bryson also doesn't have elite history as he's been right around field average for GIR's hit all 3 years he's played. Now the counter-argument is that Bryson isn't the same golfer. 

MATCHUP 3

Finau vs. Simpson

Finau -107 vs. Simpson -105

Another sizeable DFS value as Tony is the very slight H2H favorite even though he's $500 cheaper than Webb. I expect Finau will most likely be the 2nd or 3rd highest owned player as he has the trifecta of perceived good form, good history, good fit. I'm quite a bit lower on Finau than most people & here's why: 1. The form has been good, not great. Over his last 6 events, he's got 1 really good T2G effort at the US Open (gained 12.7 strokes T2G)...his next highest effort? 3.7. He's also gained strokes putting in 8 of his last 10 events, far & away the best stretch of his career. 2. The course history is deceiving. In the last 2 years, you know who has averaged the LEAST amount of putts per round at Augusta? That's right, Mr. Finau. He's been right around field average in GIR's hit in 2 tries, but the putter has mostly fueled his 10th & 5th place finishes. Everything is basically the exact opposite for Webb as he's perceived to have bad history, in OK form, and a poor course fit. The bad history part is kind of true, as he's only been above field average twice since 2013 in GIR's hit. I can't remember where I heard this, but supposedly he completely changed the way he tries to attack ANGC last year, & it paid instant dividends with a 5th place finish. He also doesn't get the credit he probably deserves for adding about 12-15 yards off the tee to go from one of the shorter hitters to averaging 295 which is almost exactly tour average. The form has been sneaky as well, over the last 24 rounds he's 7th in the field in strokes gained tee to green. 

Other interesting lines:Rahm -111 vs. DJ -101JT -111 vs. Bryson -101Day -152 vs. Wolff +135Scheffler -119 vs. Oost +106Kiz -122 vs. Westwood +109Day -156 vs. Wolff +138Cantlay -121 vs. Hatton +108Koepka -117 vs. Hatton +104Rory -110 vs. DeChambeau -102Fitz -113 vs. Scheffler +100

*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on Fantasy National.Stats about our boy this week: 

• He's a first-timer at Augusta

• He's gained 21.7 strokes putting the last 4 events, far & away the best stretch of his career

• His last time out he lost 4.2 strokes on approach shots, his worst effort in the last 18 months

• On courses 7400 yards or longer, he loses strokes against his baseline

• On fast greens, he loses almost a full stroke per event against his baseline

• He has top 10 odds of 15.4%....so 84.6% of the time he is expected to finish outside of the top 10

• For his career, he loses strokes around the greens, & for 2020 he's lost strokes around the greens in 14 of 19 events

• In 2020 he's missed 8 of 19 cuts

• This is projected to be his highest ownership week since April of 2019

• Over the last 50 rounds, he's 28th in the field in par 5 scoring

• Over his last 12 rounds, he's 86th in the field in opps gained

At 19.4% actual lineups generated % on Fantasy National (4th highest), Jason Kokrak, you're the Chalk Bomb!

"Pontificate with Pat"

Random thoughts from Pat

Has anyone else besides me caught themselves trying to figure out in their head, for a very brief moment, how to personally get two cars to the same place at once? Obviously it’s not humanly possible. That simple fact doesn’t stop my brain though from throwing it out as somehow a viable option when faced with such a dilemma. 

How does a cat know they are supposed to poop and pee in a litter box? Is it the dirt stuff you put in there? What keeps them coming back? There’s a world outside they are missing quite honestly. 

Can anyone tell me what the hell the Escape button actually does on a keyboard?  

Every year we always get to see several old past champs tee it up at the Masters which got me thinking. Why does the phrase “put him out to pasture” have such a negative connotation to it? I mean, I wouldn’t mind being put out to pasture. Then I could  just wander around and eat stuff all day with no care in the world. That doesn’t really seem all that bad. 

Speaking of the Masters. Can we just put this to rest. There is no way on gods green earth that they “pipe in” bird sounds and shit on the grounds of Augusta National. If you think that then I got some beachfront property in Arizona I can sell you. It’s a pristine and unbelievable place folks. Birds just f’in like it there and get happy when they find it so they chirp a lot. It’s not really any different than you or I would act in the same circumstances. Except when there are golfers nearby about to hit a shot. Then of course our human instincts take over and we know not to chirp. Unlike birds.