The Masters 2019 Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

 This Week's Tour Stop The Masters at Augusta National 

Hello Friends

The greatest week in golf is upon us! Augusta is such a cool place. It's the only Major we return to the same course year after year, but the course is designed with such genius that depending on the conditions, completely different skill sets will thrive. Given 'normal' conditions....big hitters with elite long to mid iron play have generally dominated, BUT when the players are faced with really hard conditions like 07', 08', 15'...accurate players with elite short games found their way up the leaderboards. When you do these deep dives into the data, you can truly appreciate the brilliance of Bobby Jones & Alister MacKenzie being able to design a course that can give an advantage to completely different types of players given different conditions. Having had the honor & privilege of attending the Masters several times, I can tell you first hand that the TV just doesn't do it justice, it is the most beautiful piece of landscape on planet Earth. There literally isn't one single weed on the property....not ONE!

So I had one opening planned that revolved around course history, but since it's been beat to a pulp already this week so I'm going to save it for the US Open and talk about recent form heading into the Masters. I went back & looked at the last 11 Masters champs form from the beginning of the calendar year they won in, to the Masters. Below are the results:

2007 Zach Johnson-45, W/D, 33, 33, 14, 42, 9, Win Masters2008 Trevor Immelman- MC, MC, T17, MC, T65, T48, T40, T2*, Cut, Win Masters2009 Angel Cabrera- MC, T13, T33, T32, MC, MC, Win Masters2010 Phil Mickelson- 19, T45, T8, T24, T14, T30, T35, Win Masters2011 Charl- 4*, Win*, 8* (those 3 were SA tour), 14, 24, 47, 30, Win Masters2012 Bubba- 18, 13, 5, 13, 2, 4, Win Masters2013 Adam Scott- T10, T33, T3, T30, T6*, Win Masters2014 Bubba- T23, T2, 1, T9, T2, W/D, Win Masters2015 Spieth- T7, MC, T7, T4, T17, 1, 2, 2, Win Masters2016 Willet- 54, 1, 45, 3, 22, 22, Win Masters2017 Sergio- 11, 1, 49, 14, 12, Win Masters2018 Reed- MC, 23, 17, MC, MC, 37, 2, 7, Win Masters*indicates non PGA Tour event

So its really hard to say that you HAVE to be in good form to win the Masters, because clearly you don’t. But it does look like you need to at least be in OK form, with Immelman & Cabrera being exceptions as they were in straight up shit form.  On the other hand though, dating back to Phil in 2010, there have only been two players to miss a cut in the year they won (Spieth missed 1 in 15', & Reed missed 3 last year) leading up to their Masters victories for the last 9 winners. Lets talk GPP strategy:87 total players in the field, & as I build my model for the week & start to widdle down my player pool, I (& you) can pretty quickly X off about 25 guys without batting an eye from all the former winners & ams. That leaves 62 players before you really even get into course fit, history, form, are they in a dry spell, etc.  Ownership & the meta game on weeks like this are so important, and with such an already limited pool of players, lineup overlap is bound to happen if your not paying attention. The lowest hanging fruit for events like this is to LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE! Depending on the sport, 40-50% of all GPP lineups will max out their salary cap at 50k, and generally a single digit percentage will leave more than 500 on the table. It's the easiest way to virtually guarantee that your lineup is unique, because while splitting 1 million isn't all that bad, it does really kill your expected value. Personally I will leave as much as 1500 on the table for super top heavy GPP's like the Milly Maker, it's a great way to eat some chalk and still separate yourself from the field. Next comes ownership, again with the limited field, most everyone will have 'some' ownership...I don't see anyone above $8400 that will have less than 10%. Weather- Like we covered in the opening....this course will play completely different if the conditions are super tough, which they most likely will be on the weekend. It's currently projected to rain with heavyish winds on Saturday & Sunday. I'll be dedicating 20% of my lineups to guys that played well in years like 07', 08', 15' for the potential that the course plays super hard on the weekend with the winner being just under par. 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

TourJunkies.com

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Woodland vs Smith 

We'll start out with a line that that I love for both betting & DFS purposes. Cam Smith is a +125 underdog to tee to green monster Woodland, but I love that price & also prefer him in DK. Let me let you guys in on a little secret, Larry Mize, Mike Weir, Jose Maria Olazabal, and Sandy Lyle are LITERALLY the only players in the field with a WORSE historical GIR percentage at Augusta National than.....Gary Woodland. It's hard to believe, because you would think he'd be a great course fit here, but the numbers are telling. Not only does the course not suit his eye, but he's also had his usual putting woes here as well, averaging over 30 putts per round. Cam on the other hand isn't in the greatest of forms but his game has increasingly become suited to Augusta as he's gained almost 20 yards off the tee since last year, and is always one of the best on tour around the greens ranking 6th in the field in strokes gained short game. 

MATCHUP 2

Sergio vs. Kuchar

 By all accounts everyone's new favorite villain Matt Kuchar will be the chalk of the week as he has a very attractive price tag on DK. Kuch is 2nd in my recent form model & 6th in my course history model but when I dug a little deeper I discovered that Matt Kuchar actually ranks 34th in the field in historical GIR % at Augusta National. Guys like Bernhard Langer have hit more greens at Augusta the last 5 years then Kuch, which tells us that he's been fairly fortunate with several of his high finishes. Lets just look at the last 4 years: 46th, 24th, 4th, 28th....and the 4th place finish was when he both made a hole in one AND was top 5 in the field in putts per round. I still like him this week but at crazy high ownership in the big gpp's I think you have to fade him. Sergio is almost the exact opposite as he's 10th in the field in GIR's hit here, but has literally never had a really good putting week. Even when he won he averaged almost 30 putts per round but was just dominate tee to green. Since the beginning of the year though Sergio has recaptured his elite ball-striking that disappeared for all of 2018 and ranks 4th in GIR % and 8th in strokes gained approach. At half the ownership of Kuch I would much prefer Sergio in GPP's. 

MATCHUP 3

Speef vs. Molinari

This is what we know about Spieth: 1. The putter has def been better the last 2 weeks as he's gained strokes his last two events 2. His ball striking is still a train wreak...he's gained strokes ball striking literally twice all season, one was 2.2 strokes, the other was 1.1 strokes, so not exactly blowing people away. 3. This is easily the worse form he's ever been in heading into Augusta 4. He has truly remarkable course history, like top 3 ever with only Jack & Tiger being better their first 5 starts as professionals (hat-tip 15th club). But here's the thing though, I would argue that he was a really good course fit every year until now. In the years he wasn't a top 10 approach player he was the best putter on tour, the years he wasn't the best putter on tour he was the best approach player, the 2 most important things at the Masters. Fast forward to now: if you believe a 6 round sample size says the putter is back, ok, but there isn't a shred of data that suggests he's turned any corner with his approach game. His GIR hit % the last 6 weeks is 56.3%.....thats good for 8th worst in the entire field. He has ONE top 10 since last years Masters, and last weeks 30th place finish was his BEST finish in 7 MONTHS. Ok I'm done. If you like free money at a plus payout, take Moli. Also play him in DK....he extremely quietly has REALLY good tee to green course history at Augusta, he just literally has never averaged less than 30 putts per round. 4 separate times Molinari has hit over 69% of his greens at Augusta which has historically been good for top 5 finishes if you just don't putt like shit. PS he also finished 6th in strokes gained tee to green at last years Masters.  

MATCHUP 4

Oosthuizen vs. Schauffele

Probably my two favorite low-er owned guys this week. A lot of people have yet to take notice, but X is a top 5 golfer in the world now. His worst finish since Sept 3rd of last year is 25th before missing the cut at the Players, and guess what? He hit 75% of his greens in reg at the Players & just had a very poor putting week. He's one of a very few handful of golfers in the world that gains strokes across the board which is what makes him so dangerous. And guess what? He's priced as the 17th highest guy in the field, AND the sports books have also be VERY slow to catch on to how good X has become the last calendar year. So as you might guess, if Oosthuizen is a pickem against a top 5 golfer than I REALLY like him this week. Of every golfer in the field, Sweet Lou has the most consistent ball striking record of anyone not named Spieth at Augusta. The GIR hit % is right at 60% for the Masters, and Sweet Lou has NEVER hit less than 65% in 7 tries, hell Spieth can't even say that! (he hit 60% in 16'). Not to mention he's coming off a 2nd place finish at the Valspar, play him!

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. For major championships the focus here is on the Millionaire Maker contestStats about our boy this week:

• Since the beginning of the year, here are his strokes gained tee to green totals per event: (-3.9), 5.5, (-2.2), 7.8, (-0.3), (-1.6), 5.3....so in 4 out of 7 events this year he's LOST strokes tee to green!!

• Of every player in the field this week w/ at least 8 rounds played at Augusta National, he's gained the most strokes putting and it's not particularly close

• Of every player $9200 and up he's easily the worst ball striker over the last 50 rounds, ranking 27th in the field (the next closest would be Koepka at 17th)

• He used to have one of the best short games on tour, but over his last 8 strokes gained events he only gained strokes in two of those!

• He also used to be one of the best total drivers in the game, averaging over a stroke gained per round off the tee, but his last 5 events? He's lost 0.4 strokes off the tee per round

• Over his last 12 rounds he's 33rd in the field in opportunities gained

• Over his last 50 rounds he's only 19th in the field in GIR's gained (remember there's really only about 50 relevant players in the field this week)

• If we make a custom model weighting proximity in the 3 main approach shot buckets equally, (125-150, 150-175, 200+) this guy ranks 23rd in the field 

• Since the Waste Management Open, this guy has averaged almost a full stroke gained putting per round at .94.....the strokes gained putting leader for the 2018 PGA tour season only averaged .79 per round, so due for juuuuuuust a little regression

• The fact that really grabbed my attention when doing research this week: our boy is 14th worst in the entire field (this includes the old fucks, am's, everyone) in historical GIR hit % at Augusta National....and he has good history which tells you just how much positive variance is in his putting here

• He finished 2nd at last years Masters but wasn't even in the top 12! in strokes gained tee to green

• Even with inflated odds because he's a fan favorite, he's still only +160 for a top 10 finish. So the implied odds of him finishing outside the top 10 are 61.64%

• His last 3 finishes: 17th, 47th, 40th

FanShareSports.com

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy projected at 21% this week....Rickie Fowler, you're the Chalk Bomb!

It's the perfect time to join as Major season is here! Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years Masters:

1. Spieth 2. Stenson 3. MciLroy 4. DJ 5. Cam Smith 6. Molinari 7. Watson 8. Fatrick 9. Rahm 10. Oosty

2. 

Historical GIR gained leaders at Augusta National (Min 8 rounds):

1. Rose 2. Spieth 3. JT 4. Hoffman 5. Casey 6. Rahm 7. Oosthuizen 8. Cink 9. Matsuyama 10. Garcia

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent:

1. Fowler 2. Olesen 3. Grillo 4. Day 5. Horschel 6. Couples 7. Reed 8. Noren 9. Schauffele 10. Simpson

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ bent greens, difficult scoring, easy fairways to hit, & over 7400 yards.....your top 10 in total strokes gained are:

1. Spieth 2. Rose 3. Mickelson 4. Rory 5. Oosthuizen 6. Scott 7. Poulter 8. Fowler 9. Day 10. Watson....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

Top 10 in 'sneaky' course history:

1. Kuchar 2. DJ 3. Oosty 4. Hoffman 5. Matsuyama 6. Stenson 7. Snedeker 8. Walker 9. Poulter 10. Freddy Boom Boom

6.

 Top 10 in proximity from the 125-150 yardage bucket, 150-175 and 200 yards + last 50 rounds (the 3 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Rory 2. Hoffman 3. Tiger 4. Matsuyama 5. JT 6. Woodland 7. Casey 8. Koepka 9. Bradley 10. DJ

7.

GIR'S gained backtests extremely well here at Augusta, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. DJ 2. Tiger 3. Rory 4. Kisner 5. Kuchar 6. Schauffele 7. Day 8. Garcia 9. Wallace 10. Willet

8.

Interestingly strokes gained on the par 3's rated the highest in importance at Augusta National s your top 10 in strokes gained on par 3's:

1. Rose 2. Rahm 3. Horschel 4. Rory 5. Molinari 6. Leishman 7. DJ 8. Matsuyama 9. ZJ 10. Wise

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Rory 2. Landry 3. Kuchar 4. JT 5. Na 6. DJ 7. Schauffele 8. Rose 9. Hovland 10. Bradley

10.

Since we're back on a par 72, your top par 5 scorers are

: 1. Koepka 2. JT 3. Casey 4. Scott 5. Bryson 6. Schauffele 7. Fleetwood 8. Woodland 9. Finau 10. DJ

10 Bonus Facts!

11.

Strokes gained putting leaders at last years Masters:

1. Kisner 2. Reed 3. Fowler 4. Casey 5. Kuchar 6. Finau 7. Rahm 8. Bryson 9. Leishman 10. Berger

12.

Bottom 10 (relevant guys) in historical GIR at Augusta National:

1. Woodland 2. Lowry 3. Simpson 4. Kim 5. Holmes 6. Fowler 7. Kisner 8. Na 9. Bradley 10. Grace

13

. Every Masters champion since 2009 has scored a cumulative total of 1 over or better on the par 3's

14.

Danny Willet

is the only Masters champion that I could find in recent history (post Tiger coming on in 97') that didn't play the par 5's in at least 3 under par (he was even on the par 5's which is crazier)

15

.

Trivia question: Who holds the Masters record for most birdies in one round?

Answer: Anthony Kim with 11 in 2009....how fucking cool would golf be if Anthony Kim & Tiger we're at full strength battling in the final round of a major?

16. If you can just PAR holes 1, 11, & 18 (all par 4's)

then you've historically gained a full shot on the field. 

17.

It's well know that there has only been one real first timer to win the Masters, but recently there have been 3 2nd timers to win

(Charl, Spieth, Willet)

18.

There is a 'secret service' certified house on the grounds of Augusta.

Speaking of which, something that doesn't really get talked about but is absolutely nuts...when Reagan was playing out at Augusta one day, a guy crashed through the gates & took hostages in the pro shop!

19.

Bobby Jones

, god bless him, had originally planned a 19th hole (short par 3), the area between the 18th green & the clubhouse that was to act as the 'bet settling' hole....a man after my own heart!

20

.

Jack Nicklaus and John Harris

are the only pro golfers who are members of Augusta National

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GRUMPY PAT'S PARTING WORDS

"Course history will officially be pronounced dead when Jordan Spieth misses the cut this week. RIP. Also pimento cheese is terrible"