The 2024 John Deere Classic Chalk 💣

Rain earlier in the week has softened the course up for would should be a low-scoring opening round. That said, the wind will pick up DRASTICALLY on Friday with gusts upwards of 20 MPH. Those in the late/early wave may get the best of the weather days if the current forecast holds up.

 For final analysis on weather advantages and tee times, make sure you tune into the Nut Hut live chat starting around 9 pm ET for the latest and final thoughts on the weather this week...GET IN THERE!

Sungjae Im -130 ($10,300) vs. Sepp Straka +101 ($10,400)

With most of the stars sitting this one out, our headline matchup features Sungjae Im and Sepp Straka where the former is a heavy favorite in a 72-hole head-to-head matchup over the latter despite a slight difference in DFS pricing.

Both have a handful of starts at TPC Deere Run under their belt, but Straka obviously has the better record thanks to his win here in 2023. Prior to that, his best finish was a T26 in 2019, while Sungjae has yet to finish better than that in two trips of his own.

Somehow, these two are far and away the most popular plays in DFS this week. According to our Nut Hut ownership projections available in the Discord, Im and Straka claim the top two spots at 26% and 25% respectively.

Doug Ghim -125 ($7600) vs. Adam Schenk -105 ($7700)

A look down the price board reveals a discrepancy between head-to-head betting odds and DraftKings DFS pricing for Doug Ghim and Adam Schenk.

Schenk has the clear course history edge with three top-10 finishes in five starts at TPC Deere Run, but Ghim has a decent record as well with a T26 and a T18 inn four starts.

The public appears to be split here as both are equally owned according to our data with Ghim coming in at 8.9% and Schenk at 8.8%

Dylan Wu -130 ($7100) vs. S.H. Kim +100 ($7300)

Lastly, let’s take a look at some of the cheaper options where Dylan Wu is a heavy favorite over S.H. Kim even though the Korean is slightly more expensive in DraftKings DFS.

With only three prior starts at the John Deere Classic between them, neither player has a huge experience advantage — especially considering both missed the cut here in 2023.

These two are among the lowest-owned players in our projections, so they might make for a decent sleeper addition to your DFS lineups at around 3%-owned for both.

*DISCLAIMER: The Chalk Bomb is CHALK for a reason! This is a ballsy call. We're simply giving you 1 player projected to be highly owned that we think could warrant a fade in order to gain leverage in DFS GPP Tournaments. Sack up & fade OR Ignore the play. 

Ahh yes, the titanic pillar of the PGA TOUR midseason that is the John Deere Classic…

As you may have noticed, the gap between the final majors of the year isn’t exactly filled with riveting golf. Like us, many golfers are taking some time at the beach or off flying overseas to start their prep for the unique links-style golf they’ll face in the Open Championship at Royal Troon in about a month’s time.

What’s more, this week’s first round falls on the July 4th holiday, and it’s hard to imagine too many red-blooded Americans passing on a beer at the beach to sit down and watch Patton Kizzire take on TPC Deere Run…

But if that’s your thing, by God we got you covered.

The weak field at the Deere means there aren’t too many big names to choose from as fade options this week, but our Nut Hut ownership data shows there’s no shortage of eligible players for this week’s Chalk Bomb honors — even if the list lacks some star power.

As a reminder for any first-time readers, the Chalk Bomb is limited to popular picks in DFS — those with a projected ownership of 15% or higher according to our Nut Hut data available in the Tour Junkies Discord. That leaves us with a total of eight players to choose from among the field this week.

At this point, I would usually jump into some data from our friends at Bet the Number talking all about what stats are important at TPC Deere Run and which players are best and worst suited to that sort of play style. But it’s July 3rd and I’ve got one foot on a boat so let’s get straight to it:

We’re fading Jordan Spieth — and here’s why:

Has Spieth shown anything in the last three months that he should be the most expensive player in DFS this week? At his ownership (north of 20%) and price point, you basically need him to win or damn close this week to make it worthwhile, and needing 2024’s Jordan Spieth to win a tournament has not been a good position to be in.

Yes, he’s played well here previously — really well actually. But his three-year stretch of Win - T7 - Win at TPC Deere Run happened 10 years ago. Let’s face it, Spieth had long outgrown the John Deere Classic, but he’s back this year because he needs to get something going before this season is a complete wash.

To appease the data nerds among you, our models don’t like Spieth this week either. He ranks 67th in the BTN model this week thanks to horrific par-5 scoring and putting from 8-15 feet — two key areas that BTN have identified for this week. In fact, among the seven key stats that make up this week’s model, Spieth ranks inside the top 40 in the field in only one: SG: Off the Tee.

So if you can’t help but have one eye on a DFS sweat while watching fireworks with your family, it might not be the worst idea to steer clear of Jordan Spieth this week.

The fact that a tiny hole in a straw F’s up the whole strawing process is annoying.

It kind of pisses me off that treehouses in movies and cartoons are highly prevalent and cool. Yet I didn’t know anyone growing up who had a really cool treehouse.

Do school kids in countries where they drive on the left side of the road, also walk in a straight line and orderly fashion on the left side of hallways?

If you survive long enough in hide and go seek and are just really good at it, are you basically a missing person at that point?

Alright, that’s all I got for this week for the John Deere Classic and the seasons 6th Major. Good luck with all your lineups and bets and may your screens be green! Bome!