John Deere Classic Chalk Bomb 💣💣💣

 This Week's Tour Stop John Deere Classic @ Deere Run 

Youth Movement

Man, life comes at you fast. You take one week off to do some fishing and relaxing, you come back and 3 (really 4) guys that are all right at the legal age for Rose consumption are all the highest priced guys in the field. Hovland, Morikawa, Wolff, and to a lesser extent Niemann have all seen their prices soar the last 2 months putting the sports books in some positions I'm not sure they have ever been in before. Lets break it down to see how they all stack up as we sit here today:Viktor Hovland: To me he's actually been the most impressive of the bunch. He's gained almost 5 strokes off the tee in 4 of his 6 PGA tour events this season....that's like Rory/Woodland/Bubba territory. He's also gained about 5 strokes on approach shots 3 seperate times, 2 of those in majors! But unfortanley even when you hit  70-80% of your greens, you still have to get up & down & you still have to make putts. Hovland has lost strokes around the green in 4 of 6 & has lost strokes putting in 5 of 6. He's basically Gary Woodland already....had Viktor just broken even putting at the Masters & US Open he would have had a chance to win. Again I'm highest on him because he's demonstrated his skills at multiple PGA eventsCollin Morikawa: He's had the most 'balanced' game so far gained strokes in 3 of 4 categories in 3 of 4 events. In the small data sample he's been the best putter so far (but keep in mind this is over 16 rounds). His strength seems to be approach shots as he's gained strokes in all 4 events gaining a monster 10.7 strokes last week alone. He's also gained strokes off the tee in 3 of 4 so far averaging about 2 gained strokes per event which would rank him in the top 25 in the field this week. Matt Wolff: Oddly enough Wolff might be the toughest to peg. He gained strokes across the board last week en route to his win, and was far and away the best approach shot performance of his young career as he had almost lost strokes on approach in his first 3 events. He lost strokes off the tee at the Travelers & Rocket Mortgage but gained 2.2 last week (& I would guess that's where his baseline will live since he hits it so far). He's gained strokes around the green & putting in 3 of 4 so far, but his high water mark is 1.7 strokes gained between both categories. And somehow Niemann who has gained between 5.6-6.5 strokes tee to green in 5 of his last 6 events & has 6 PGA tour top 10's already is priced below all of them. God Speed 

One last note is I want to remind everyone that we're cranking out lots of new, #greatfantistic content every week on One Groove Low at

TourJunkies.com

. Pat's new Fantasy Sommelier article is both great advice and laugh out loud funny, and our new season long betting piece is going to help settle the debate of course history, course fit, and recent form once and for all. 

Leh Go!

 MATCHUP 1 Tway vs. Clark 

Tway & Clark are two of the sneakier recent form guys in the field this week. Clark has gone 15, 17, 5th in his last 3 starts, and gained strokes across the board last week. True, a lot of his success has been short game driven, BUT his stat profile is very similar to what Brooks Koepka's was 2-3 years ago, really good putter who bombs it off the tee. While Tway's box score isn't as nice as Clark, if you look at this GIR #'s since the Masters he's been really good, especially on courses where driving accuracy isn't a premium. Even last week he hit 75% of his greens in reg but just had a poor putting week losing 3.5 strokes to the field. The books are saying Tway has the slight DFS value while I prefer Clark in H2H betting markets. 

MATCHUP 2

Morikawa vs. Niemann

I was extremely interested to see how the sportsbooks were going to price the top 4 young guns, and this line was the most surprising to me. Yes, Morikawa is $500 more expensive than Niemann this week, but I really expected the books to give the edge to the Chilean since he's actually gained more strokes on the field the last 3 weeks & played well here last year. Morikawa is also favored over Hovland making him the default 'favorite' in the field, but with all these young guys, a lot of this is still guessing at best since we have so little data to go off. From my perch the statistical profiles of these two guys are very similar w/ Morikawa having a slight edge in approach shots and Niemann having a slight edge in around the green shots. 

MATCHUP 3

Glover vs. Moore

The price range of Glover/Moore is where I'll be starting a lot of my lineups this week. Both of these guys have really good course history here with Moore being a previous winner & 2 other top 10's and while Glover doesn't have the high finishes, in 6 tries at Deere Run he's never hit less than 72% of his greens in reg (the one time he averaged under 30 putts per round he was 15th). As far as value, Moore clearly has the better DFS price as they have the same to-win odds, same top 10 odds, and one price 'level' above a pickem in H2H markets at a $600 discount. Glover seems to have found something with his putter this year, as 4 of his 5 best putting events since the dawn of DFS golf have all been in the 2019 season. Moore's form has been ho-hum all year basically but your playing him for the history and he's virtually always low-owned. 

*Glover is also a H2H favorite over Im which very much surprised me

MATCHUP 4

Ryder vs. Merritt

Normally these two guys would get lost in the weeds but I think both are quite intriguing this week. Sammy Ryder appears in 50% of the 10 facts which certainly got my attention, and Merritt has been popping up in my 'hot ball striker' stats for several weeks now. I'll go ahead & spoil it for Ryder: He was 10th in the field in strokes gained tee to green last year, #1 in my custom model, #4 in the ball striking model, #1 in the yardage bucket model, & #2 in the par 5 metric. How he manages to do all this while losing strokes tee to green 50% of the time this season is fairly impressive, but he's caught my eye. Merritt has cooled a little since he had his nice run of 3 out 4 event gaining at least 5 strokes on approach shots, but almost gained strokes across the board last week with a very good putting week (6.1 strokes gained). He's surprisingly getting talked up this week so keep an eye on his ownership. 

*Side note: Before Streelman dropped out due to gaining entry into the Open, he was a -140 favorite over Wolff

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*Remember that we've made a rule for the bomb that they have to be in the top 10 projected owned on FanShareSports.com. Stats about our boy(s) this week: 

• Everything this week has to do with value, and at the current prices this week I feel all 3 guys have negative expected value (if you played them 100 times this week, I think you lose money on the 3some at least 60 of those time)

• Cam Champ is probably the most recent example of what the 'normal' pattern might be for all 3 of these guys. He won his 3rd start, notched 2 more top 10's....then basically hasn't been heard from since

• 2 of the 3 of these guys had crazy good approach play last week (& yes you can get 'lucky' in your tee to green game as well), so good in fact that Hideki Matsuyama, generally the best ball striker on the planet, only had 1 event since DFS golf started where he's gained more strokes on approach that these guys did last week

• None of the 3 are what I would consider 'good' putters as between the 3 of their PGA career's their is only 1 event of more than 2.7 strokes gained putting

• I've talked about this in the past, but we see this general effect in fantasy baseball a lot where the new hot prospect who has been killing AAA comes up, shreds the first couple days and is the great player in MLB history. Everyone runs to the waiver wires to pick them up because we haven't seen them fail yet, but everyone, even Mike Trout, went through an 'adjustment' period

• If you combine all 3 of these guys implied odds to win....it comes out to 15.5%....DJ/Brooks/Rory are routinely higher than that on their own in stronger field events. 

• Hovland is the only exception that I'll have any ownership at all of. His floor is much, much higher than the other two because of his driving (very Rory'ish), and he's the only one of the 3 to display elite ball striking in strong fields (he's actually done it twice)

FanShareSports.com

is THE place to evaluate ownership in PGA DFS (spoiler, basically everyone that projects ownership in the industry uses FanShareSports as at least one input) and they have our guy(s) projected at 21.1%, 19.6%, & 16.2%  this week....Viktor Hovland, Matthew Wolff, & Collin Morikawa, you're the Chalk Bomb!

If you're playing PGA or NFL DFS, FanShare is a MUST!Click the button below for 20% OFF FanShare Pro, just enter promo code 'tourjunkies'

1. 

Strokes gained tee to green leaders from last years John Deere:

1. Duncan 2. HV3 3. Niemann 4. Dahmen 5. Huh 6. Burgoon 7. Brown 8. Werenski 9. Henry 10. Ryder

2. 

Historical

GIR Leaders at Deere Run (min 8 rounds): 

1. W. Kim 2. Bozzelli 3. ZJ 4. Wagner 5. Campbell 6. Werenski 7. Cink 8. Herman 9. Glover 10. Henry

3. Strokes gained putting leaders the last 50 rounds on Bent that are also in the top 100 in ball striking:

1. McCarthy 2. Armour 3. Roach 4. Glover??? 5. Lahiri 6. Saunders 7. Tway 8. Malnati 9. Wagner 10. ZJ

4. 

If I make a custom model w/ and bent grass greens, easy scoring, and easy to hit fairways...your top 10 in total strokes gained are (min 10 rounds):

1. Ryder 2. Niemann 3. Campbell 4. Werenski 5. ZJ 6. Lee 7. Streelman 8. Haas 9. Berger 10. Hearn ....BTW....if you guys haven't been paying attention to this fact every week....it's basically nailed half the top 10 every event

5.

If I make another custom model w/ JUST strokes gained ball striking on easy courses w/ easy to hit fairways your top 10 are:

1. Glover 2. Niemann 3. Garrigus 4. Ryder 5. Lee 6. Stanley 7. Teater 8. HV3 9. ZJ 10. Palmer

6.

 GIR's gained always backtests well, your top 10 the last 12 rounds:

1. Tringale 2. Niemann 3. Stanley 4. Dufner 5. Tway 6. Straka 7. Laird 8. Svensson 9. Streb 10. Prugh

7.

Strokes gained on the par 5's rated as the highest in importance at Deere Run so your top 10 in par 5 scoring average are:

1. Im 2. Ryder 3. Tway 4. Glover 5. McCarthy 6. Berger 7. Cauley 8. Frittelli 9. Howell III 10. Mullinax

8.

Top 10 in proximity from the 125-150 yardage bucket, and the 200+ bucket the last 50 rounds (the 2 most popular approach shot distances):

1. Ryder 2. W. Kim 3. Hovland 4. ZJ 5. Stanley 6. Teater 7. Taylor 8. Merritt 9. Hoge 10. Harman

9. 

Top 10 in opportunities gained the last 12 rounds:

1. Hovland 2. Morikawa 3. Vegas 4. Sloan 5. Cook 6. Landry 7. Niemann 8. Palmer 9. Lindheim 10. Tway

10.

Top 10 'bargains' on DK relative to Fanduel pricing :

 1. Frittelli 2. Cook 3. CH3 4. Perez 5. Cink 6. Glover 7. Poston 8. Harman 9. Laird 10. Merritt

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PAT'S PARTING WORDS 

"I just took a DNA test turns out I'm 100% that bitch" (when it comes to liking young players on tour)-Lizzo-Patrick P. Perry